Could you please stop embedding these long Twitter threads and instead provide a simple text link with your summary/translation instead? Or maybe put the embedded tweets in a quote so that the forum software can automatically truncate/hide the mile-long ugly tweet vomit. As it stands, the embedded formatting is just asinine.
Such behaviour explicitly breaks rules of this forum:
This is an English language forum. You may post in a any language, however provide an English translation for any non-English post and any links posted.
It also shows lack of common courtesy to users who don't know Mandarin sufficiently well to understand it without help of translators.
Personally I am very much in favour of providing, whenever possible, the original text in a format that allows users to copy it and use translation, since that helps both with interpretation of the text and also familiarisation with the language. If popularising knowledge about PLA is the forum's primary purpose then popularising the use of Mandarin sources should be the secondary one. I also think that people who know Mandarin should feel obliged to do their part in popularising use of Mandarin. Otherwise they're just pests breaking the rules, littering the forum with useless posts and contributing nothing of real social value.
Confucius says quite a lot but none of it is polite language. Don't disappoint Confucius by choosing to be self-important pests. Instead make Confucius proud by choosing to follow proper rules of conduct and being socially useful.
Anyway, that's not why I'm posting here.
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On the rumoured new submarine:
First of all it is not a hybrid nuclear-conventional submarine. It is a nuclear submarine. Not an "SSN-K" or "SSK-N" but an
SSN. A low-performance SSN is still an SSN. An SSN with operational and tactical profile of an SSK is still an SSN.
What makes a conventional submarine "conventional" is not the electric batteries but a combustion engine as the energy source. What makes a nuclear submarine "nuclear" is not its speed but a nuclear reactor as the energy source. There is nothing that suggests that a nuclear submarine has to operate at high speeds for long periods of time since most of the time SSNs operate at low and very low speeds. They only use sustained high speeds in emergencies.
Nuclear-powered submarines were invented when a 3000t SSK like Kilo on battery power had a maximum range
750 km at
3 knots or energy reserve of about a week. At maximum speed of 20 knots Kilo has range of
70km if I remember correctly.
Those numbers are why nuclear propulsion was revolutionary. All the other capabilities like being able to move thousands of kms under ice or spend weeks within enemy waters only came later - 10 to 20 years after Nautilus first went to sea. If you want to understand any innovation you have to understand it in its immediate context - what the innovators wanted to achieve
at the time, and
not what the technology allows for one or two decades after introduction.
Secondly there is nothing unusual about combining a 10MW reactor and 1,3MW quadruple Stirling unit in an
experimental submarine.
10MW is very low power output for a naval reactor and at the same time too much for a SSK and not enough for a traditional SSN. Rubis which had comparable size (2600t / 73m x 7,6m) had 48MW of peak reactor power producing maximum speed of 25 knots. At 1/5 of that this new Chinese SSN with a steam turbine would have never been able to move faster than 10 knots. The loss of energy would be too great.
Instead the reactor is likely going to power an electric motor in a non-linear arrangement which will propel the submarine indirectly and charge the batteries. This way the submarine will have all the advantages of modern SSKs as well as avoid the noisy turbine-propeller shaft, with none of the disadvantages.
10MW is likely peak power that allows for large variability in power output while most likely using LEU as fuel. LEU reactors are very inefficient per fuel mass which could mean that 10MW is achieved when the reactor uses up all its fuel while during standard operations it uses as little as 2-3MW or perhaps even less. This way the reactor.
The Stirling engines likely fulfill two functions:
- They serve as a backup since it's an experimental submarine that will be used to develop completely new operating procedures - there is no way to explore the possibilities without risk.
- They serve as secondary source of energy for charging of batteries when the sub runs on maximum reactor power due to inefficiency of the turbine/motor.
Also the installed power seems... excessive. Four engines at 320kW is 1,28MW or 640kW with redundancy.
Gotland (1600t / 60m x 6,4m) is powered by
two United Stirling AB V4-275R engines rated at
100kW each which allows for sustaining of maximum of 5 knots
or recharging batteries. 4x320 is 6x what Gotland has and Gotlands operate regularly for days while using Stirling as main power source. Also it can operate on just a single Stirling engine. The second one is a backup.
Kilo (3100t / 73m x 9,9m) has two 1 MW diesel generators and one 5 MW electric motor. This way Kilo can discharge a lot of stored energy (measured in kW
h) in short amount of time to reach 20 knots on batteries but at limited range (see above). Under snorkel it can only generate 2 MW of power to move at 17 knots and slowly recharge batteries at the same time.
At 1,3MW the new sub is at 60% of Kilo which makes it already that much more capable than the already capable Gotland. It is
excessive.
Which leads me to believe that the purpose of this sub - or two subs to be precise - is to test the solution in practical conditions. I think the propulsion has been already tested and now it's going to be put to use in actual combat exercises or scenarios. I would even expect the power output of the mini-reactor and the Stirling unit to be greater than necessary precisely so that the submarine can test options for a hypothetical serial production.
For example - what is better: 6MW reactor + 4x 0,3MW Stirlings or 4MW reactor and 2x 0,3 Stirlings or perhaps 10MW reactor and 2x 0,3 Stirlings?
And here's my main thought:
This new submarine may be a
test vessel for an upgrade of all AIP Type 039A/B/C which will be done the same way as the modernisation of Vastergotland SSKs in 2003-4 when they received the AIP module designed for Gotland. The test vessel for AIP was the previous class Nacken, refit in 1987.
If Sweden managed to upgrade two subs in two years then with 20 039s in Service PLAN could gain 20 new SSNs within 5 years at 4x the Swedish workload which should be easily achievable at Wuchang. And if the mini-reactor module is well designed all of the infrastructure is already in place. Nothing Huludao can do would match it in terms of quantum leap/paradigm shift shock to the system.
039 would also immediately become extremely attractive as an export offer considering that countries could buy a SSK and later upgrade to SSN. This is relevant for Pakistan as well as for basing of PLAN 039s in Pakistan.
Naturally I don't have the relevant numbers so I have to make
somewhat-informed guesses but at first glance a "new 10MW SSN" doesn't make any sense for a country with the world's largest shipbuilding industry. Especially that in many aspects submarines benefit from the same economies of scale that affect carrier design - bigger is better. Why build small under-powered SSNs when you can build large properly-powered SSNs?
But it makes perfect sense when it's not about a new 10MW SSN but something more radical than that: a change in strategy. Anyone who has read Sun Tzu will know that
it is best.
This is obviously just a speculation, but I wanted to put it to record. In terms of grand strategy fits China's needs
too well, so who knows?