Robotics and humanoid robotics & civilian drones discussion

tacoburger

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Eh, I don't really agree with this.

"Innovation" or "advancements" typically is made if there is mastery of the precursor technologies and industries and one is a leader in those fields to begin with.

Tesla or SpaceX does not come up with their technologies out of nowhere, and is built on a base of human resources, and scientific and technological reserves in the first place, from a resource and technology pool which is world leading. Once one has those, then having the organisational and financial incentives to develop newer products can be enabled, but if one lacks sufficient human resources and technological reserves and sufficient leadership in those respects, then it's rather difficult to do so even if the financial and organisational factors are present.

From that perspective, it really isn't a surprise, and if anything the Chinese industry's ability to keep up so quickly compared to where China was at even just a decade ago, is somewhat remarkable (especially so if one compares China with other nations today).
And one does not even being to master the precursor technologies if they don't even start development. That's the issue, they don't even start development on the basics until it becomes mainstream or they have a knife to their throats. Tesla 100% is benefiting from other leading edge American robotics companies like BD. Issue is that BD started development 15 years ago, while lots Chinese companies seemed to have jumped on the humanoid robotics bandwagon only after Tesla started working on it, probably because Elon Musk and Tesla is very very famous. Just looking at many of the recent robotics companies, it's clear that they have just started development and their robot aren't much better than the ones being made 10 years ago. And Tesla is mainly a car company. You have purely robotics companies like Unitree whose products are shitter in comparsion.

We can see this in so many industries. Why was China's development of the semiconductor industry so slow until the US sanctions forced China to speed up development? Why was critical technology like lithography ignored until America began to choke China out with it? Why did it take ChatGPT for the LLM A.I boom to happen in China, instead of GTP-3 or China's own interal development of A.I models? Why did it take Spacex to land a rocket before China could give to go ahead to allow for the development of the private space sector? Why is GMO techologny banned in China until 2020 when I suspect that the deteriorating supply chains and worsening relationships scared the government enough to allow the development of GMO crops to secure China's food supply. You and I have talked about China's speed in modernising/phasing out their hypergolic rocket fleet.

Let's be honest, China's leadership in technology like EVs/renewables is because the government laid the groundwork decades beforehand and because America actively suppressed those technology due to their powerful fossil fuel lobby.

And what's the point of China's top down centralized economy if they can't even identify the critical technology of the future and try to boost development in those areas? EVs and renewables are a success story, but there's a massive lack of foresight in other areas like the forementioned lithography or GMO crops. Don't tell me it's lack of resources. What's the difference between 2023 and 2019/2018? China isn't a small or poor country. Especially in imporant areas like this? We not talking about toilet technology or the latest in smart fabrics, I don't care if China falls behind in those areas.

And yeah, China is doing better then 99% of countries. But they need to be doing better then America. Europe isn't extactly levaging their IP to try and choke China out. If China can't match America 1:1 in development speed, the least that they can do is start development earlier and not wait to jump on the bandwagon only after certain famous American companies annouced their products.
 
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Blitzo

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And one does not even being to master the precursor technologies if they don't even start development. That's the issue, they don't even start development on the basics until it becomes mainstream or they have a knife to their throats. Tesla 100% is benefiting from other leading edge American robotics companies like BD. Issue is that BD started development 15 years ago, while lots Chinese companies seemed to have jumped on the humanoid robotics bandwagon only after Tesla started working on it, probably because Elon Musk and Tesla is very very famous. Just looking at many of the recent robotics companies, it's clear that they have just started development and their robot aren't much better than the ones being made 10 years ago. And Tesla is mainly a car company. You have purely robotics companies like Unitree whose products are shitter in comparsion.

We can see this in so many industries. Why was China's development of the semiconductor industry so slow until the US sanctions forced China to speed up development? Why was critical technology like lithography ignored until America began to choke China out with it? Why did it take ChatGPT for the LLM A.I boom to happen in China, instead of GTP-3 or China's own interal development of A.I models? Why did it take Spacex to land a rocket before China could give to go ahead to allow for the development of the private space sector? Why is GMO techologny banned in China until 2020 when I suspect that the deteriorating supply chains and worsening relationships scared the government enough to allow the development of GMO crops to secure China's food supply. You and I have talked about China's speed in modernising/phasing out their hypergolic rocket fleet.

Let's be honest, China's leadership in technology like EVs/renewables is because the government laid the groundwork decades beforehand and because America actively suppressed those technology due to their powerful fossil fuel lobby.

And what's the point of China's top down centralized economy if they can't even identify the critical technology of the future and try to boost development in those areas? EVs and renewables are a success story, but there's a massive lack of foresight in other areas like the forementioned lithography or GMO crops. Don't tell me it's lack of resources. What's the difference between 2023 and 2019/2018? China isn't a small or poor country. Especially in imporant areas like this? We not talking about toilet technology or the latest in smart fabrics, I don't care if China falls behind in those areas.

I think you are setting up some unrealistic expectations of wanting China to be at the technological forefront and leading edge when they did not have the human resources, technological reserves, or even funding to develop the technologies for precursor technologies, until fairly recently, compared to the US which have had the benefits of being at the leading edge of all of those aspects, and at scale, for about a century or more.

I do agree that there is always more that can be done to tweak things to encourage faster development or accelerate things a bit further, but realistically the material means to attain this is all very fresh.
It is exactly because high technology and advanced industries are expensive, challenging and require resources and time and finances to develop, as well as having sufficient human resources and experience, that


And yeah, China is doing better then 99% of countries. But they need to be doing better then America. Europe isn't extactly levaging their IP to try and choke China out. If China can't match America 1:1 in development speed, the least that they can do is start development earlier and not wait to jump on the bandwagon only after certain famous American companies annouced their products.

The questions you are conveying is the equivalent of unironically asking "why can't China just be the world's most powerful nation and dominate every industry, smh".

Also, if China cannot yet match America 1:1 in development speed, I'm not sure why you would expect it to be more reasonable to expect them to start development of new projects earlier.
Instead, recognition that it doesn't particularly matter if every aspect of development speed or time is 1:1 at <insert present moment in time here>, but rather it is about the long term trajectory of being able to catch up, scale, and eventually exceed.

If that crossing point ends up being a number of years into the future I don't see what the big deal is, given there are very few technologies which are truly time sensitive in their strategic impact or consequence.
 

sunnymaxi

Major
Registered Member

Vivo is developing humanoid robots and mixed reality products, expected to be commercialized within three years, Hu Baishan, executive VP and COO at the Chinese smartphone giant, said at an event yesterday..

@tphuang this has been new trend in China. Humanoid Robots are popping up like mushrooms. and the big news is, mostly have domestic supply chain so expertise and technology growing at rapid pace. and talent flourishing.
 

tphuang

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Vivo is developing humanoid robots and mixed reality products, expected to be commercialized within three years, Hu Baishan, executive VP and COO at the Chinese smartphone giant, said at an event yesterday..

@tphuang this has been new trend in China. Humanoid Robots are popping up like mushrooms. and the big news is, mostly have domestic supply chain so expertise and technology growing at rapid pace. and talent flourishing.
Yes I will have a substack entry for this because I saw this news yesterday
 

tphuang

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this one doesn't even have hands, which is one of the hardest part of humanoid robots. I don't see where your belief this is better than ubtech, fourier, agibot's robots come from. The latter ones are already sale and ready for real world usage.
 

broadsword

Brigadier
this one doesn't even have hands, which is one of the hardest part of humanoid robots. I don't see where your belief this is better than ubtech, fourier, agibot's robots come from. The latter ones are already sale and ready for real world usage.

I was comparing only the ambulation.
 
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