Resource War/Financial Woes

vesicles

Colonel
vesicles what are you talkin about? russia's economy collapsed COMPLETELY during the 90s lol.
the problem with the US economy is not that it'll collapse, but that it will stop growing.

It'll bounce back, juct like any major economy has done countless times (and I'm actually talking about Russia)...
 

pla101prc

Senior Member
It'll bounce back, juct like any major economy has done countless times (and I'm actually talking about Russia)...

its gonna come out of the recession. but i highly doubt its gonna be able to return to the 4% growth it enjoyed during the housing market boom. 1-2% growth on average for the next decade prolly,it'll prolly feel a lot worse for the 10% that's out of work. the deficit is a big problem too, dont see any solution to that, its gonna end up driving up the interest rate at some point.
 

Delbert

Junior Member
Buffet has recently spent $34billion? on buying up some American railroad company, whats he spent in Russia?

No need for buffet in the Russian Economy. There are a lot of Oligrachs and rich people in Russia who can influence and help boost the Russian economy if they wanted too.
 

Delbert

Junior Member
It'll bounce back, juct like any major economy has done countless times (and I'm actually talking about Russia)...

Even is the US economy bounces back, it would no longer be as strong as it was before. Why? A lot of major industries were gone.. Manufacturing went to China, Mexico, Vietnam..

While the services sectors went to India and the Philippines.

Just imagine how many jobs were lost in USA. These industries are also one of the major foundations of a country's economy. Loosing it means losing your foundation.

Secondly with its huge budget deficit, and if they keep on printing dollars... Rest assure you, if one day nobody uses the US dollars anymore it will surely collapse.
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
I'm sure when China's economy does take a downward turn they'll be there to take credit for predicting it. These are the same type of naysayers that contradict their own conclusions. According to them no Chinese should be able to afford a car because there's no domestic consumption because wages are so low. Yet China is the largest car market in the world. Cars are a high ticket item. Meaning if Chinese are buying cars they are also buying things along down the chain. So there is in fact a more healthier domestic economy going on in China than the naysayers that say Chinese don't spend but just save making it an export dependent economy. If Chanos is picking a person as a source who has basically gotten everything wrong and stinks of his own personal bias, then it says something about his motivation as well.


And let's not forget how they also predicted China's downfall right after the Western economies fumbled. Because of course if they fall, China has to fall harder. And one of Chang's arguments that Chanos is banking on is that the stimulus money is going to run out. What stimulus? As was said by Western analysts after China announce its economic package. According to them all the money in that stimulus package was already budgetted for projects that were planned before. So it's actually business as usual without any stimulus.

All these contradictions smells of desperation not of clear thought.

The only real difference is that China usually uses its reserves as collateral to raise money from the International Money Markets, but this time has started to spend Capitol when no other funding has been available or has simply been required to act upon its guarantee as lender of last resort.

Otherwise I would say bang on the money (literally);)
 

pla101prc

Senior Member
if China runs out of everything else they always have the US dollar reserves. sell a couple billion of those i am sure our American friends would understand
 

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
No need for buffet in the Russian Economy. There are a lot of Oligrachs and rich people in Russia who can influence and help boost the Russian economy if they wanted too.



The Oligachs have been severly mauled in the recent financial meltdown. Articles on their depleted fortunes have been printed in most mainline magazines at some point during the last 18months or so.

Besides the remaining ones are investing in interests outside of Russia, A certain Soccer Club, to name one.:D
 

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
I think I might follow Chanos for a while, to see how well he doesnt/does make money short selling in Chinese stocks He tends to invest and be prepared to wait a long time. May i say it without offending anyone, the relatively unsosphiticated nature of the mom and pop share market dabblers might work in Chanos favour.

However if he looses money, you better hope he hasn't got any of your 401k money or whatever you call it, invested.
However market analysts suggest that Chinese stock Market shares are well overpriced when comparing their P/E ratio to Western stock markets, so perhaps they will fall and Chanos collects a lot of money.
 
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marclees

New Member
So I would recommend that China must start acting fast, with their huge reserves on hand (approx. $2 Trillion), I don't think they should maintain huge amount and proportions in US dollars. I think keeping $1 Trillion is US dollars would be sufficient, since it can already pay the import requirements for almost the entire year.

This is incorrect. China does NOT have $2 Trillion in US Dollars . Only the idiots in the West think that China is so dumb.


China held $696 billion in U.S. Treasury debt as of Dec. 31,2008. The figures are around $740 Billion now.

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In the Global financial circles, one can detect that the China have been quietly disposing themselves of US Dollars via currency swaps and other implicit arrangements .
 
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