Rafale, an ideal aircraft for PLA carrier aircraft

We all know that due the military embargo, it's not possible for France to sell military equipment to China at the current stage. The France did want to sell its Rafale to China very much but due to the embargo the deal vanished into thin air.

But if one day in the near future, the embargo is lift, would China buy the Rafale? China is very interesting to own an aircraft carrier and it needs aircrafts for its future carrier. If China is considering the Su-33 family (though J-10 is another choice), I think Rafale is a much better choice though its a 4.5 gen, smaller in size, better avionics and more reliable engines.

What do you guys think?

I agree. Rafale would beat the notional J-10B hands down and offer advantages over the Su-33 also, particularly in terms of deckspace. One thing I can't imagine France exporting is the Specture EW system which is arguably the Rafale's magic bullet. Another thing to consider is that French Rafales are slated to get Meteor BVR missile which will make the PL-12 of (notional) PLANAF Rafales' look somewhat short ranged.

OK the Rafale is indeed an advance aircraft more capable than the Su-33 or J-10B but the is the matter of the unit cost of the Rafale. The PLAAF doesn't have lots of money to spend, it has to run on a tight budget and cannot afford large purchases of exports aircrafts. Making an the Rafale for the future aircraft carrier will require purchases of 20+ Rafale. This will be extremely expensive to the PLAAF and which they prefer the cheaper solutions. (J-10B) The J-10B is firstly domestic which stands a better chance of being the carrier aircraft then the Rafale and secondly the PLAAF really wants to makes its airforce more self reliant. Seeing a Rafale in the PLAAF would be nice but my personal opinion is that we won't see a Rafale squadron on a Chinese aircraft carrier though a few might be on it for testing and evaluation. Small purchase of Rafales might be plausible. J-10 is not as capable as the Rafale but it is neither lagging behind, with some modifications and upgrades the J-10 will reach the Rafale standards.

Chengdu J-10 said:

This will be extremely expensive to the PLAAF and which they prefer the cheaper solutions. (J-10B)

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Developing a brand new aircraft (J-10B) is cheaper than buying "off the shelf"? I think it would be a mistake to assume that devloping a twin engined navalised J-10 would be anything other than prohibitively expensive, especially considering the relatively small production run.

Another observation which sort of takes away from your point is that the PLAN chose the Su-33 over the presumably cheaper Mig-29K.

The fly away of the Rafale is reported to be 47m euro (I assume it as 60 ~ 70m USD) reported by Wiki . The J-10 is said to be more expensive the J-11 (Su-27) by some Chinese forum. So I assume that it would be around than 30 ~ 40m which is about a half of the Rafale's unit price. But what about J-10B? Anyone knows its unit price?

Here is a problem on Chinese equipment, both imported or domestic are based on Russian technologies. That's the main reason I would suggest China to go with some western technologies. It's nothing bad to spend a little money to try a new thing, maybe the'll earn more in the future in term of technology knowlegde.

One more thing, Rafale is claimed to have virtual stealth feature....

SteelBird said:

The fly away of the Rafale is reported to be 47m euro (I assume it as 60 ~ 70m USD) reported by Wiki

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. The J-10 is said to be more expensive the J-11 (Su-27) by some Chinese forum. So I assume that it would be around than 30 ~ 40m which is about a half of the Rafale's unit price. But what about J-10B? Anyone knows its unit price?

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This is absolutely not true, I can tell you that. My personal estimation is about 25 million USD after factoring in sensors and weapons, which is about 1/5 of the cost of Rafale fully loaded.

Here is a problem on Chinese equipment, both imported or domestic are based on Russian technologies. That's the main reason I would suggest China to go with some western technologies. It's nothing bad to spend a little money to try a new thing, maybe the'll earn more in the future in term of technology knowlegde.

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by the time China can actually get Rafale, it will have something better indigenously, I'm serious.

tphuang said:

This is absolutely not true, I can tell you that. My personal estimation is about 25 million USD after factoring in sensors and weapons, which is about 1/5 of the cost of Rafale fully loaded.

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OK! first, you said that it's 25m per unit, fully loaded or fly away? If it's a fly away price than you can't compare with a fully loaded Rafale. Secondly, J-10 can't be used on a carrier (which you claim to be 1/5 price of the Rafale), the coming carrier version of the J-10 is supposed to be, what is it unit price and how long does it take PLA to have it?

by the time China can actually get Rafale, it will have something better indigenously, I'm serious.

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Maybe when the embargo is lift, you'll get a new version of the Rafale, anyway, if you don't start now, you'll never have it.

The chinese would pretty much like to have a look on the Rafale. Especially at the avonics. I think the overal weapon system (airframe+avonic+weapons) is very capable but on the other hand I don't believe they would buy one or two airwings. And I hope Dassault is not willing to sell few aircraft just to claim export success and later we'll all discover China has exploited the technology and is offering it at a cheaper price.

I think the Rafale is much better than Su33. First of all, ***No flamable BS comments without any bases of your claims***** Second of all, Rafale is by far superior than Su33, and SU33 is much better than the Mig29. So even though Rafale is more expensive, it will still be a better choice. Third of all, we can learn new tech from Rafale.

Last of all, home made fighters will be better than any imported fighters. So I strongly support China develope its own Navy Jets such as J-10B or even J-10C.

Even if the EU arms embargo is lifted, the US would oppose major item sales like the Rafale an threaten to cancel military coorporation between US-France. Regardless of what you've heard about US-French split, the 2 nations have an active military exchange program where the US assist the French in its carrier aircraft development. Everything from jet engines to steam catapult and carrier deck operations.

The US may look the other way if the military sale was for minor items that it feels would not upset the balance of power in East Asia region. For example, sub-system upgrades for Su-27 and J-10 aircraft, and sensors/computers for navy ships. Or, <cough> blue prints, samples, and technical support for reverse-enginnering of some systems.

But if by some miracle the military sales is lifted fully with complete disregard to US/Japan opposition, I'd say go for it. Purchase Rafale made in France and get Mirage-2000-9 and Leclerc MBT domestic production license with some tech transfers. The French might be willing to do it if the $ amount is large enough, and the PRC agree to "no re-export" to 3rd nation.