Potential backfire from Google Ban

Also, there seems to be very little reporting and diving in on Huawei's abilities to replace US chips, develop its own OS, and to maintain its ties with other non-US partners in US and western MSM in general.

Huawei said Germany's Infineon is continuing to supply it with components. Panasonic and Toshiba have also made official statements saying they will continue supply to Huawei while scrutinising if any parts supplied to Huawei is subject to the ban. But if you google it all you see is news that Infineon, Panasonic, and Toshiba you don't see many such positive stories (well, positive depending on your position) and there are heaps of reports of how Europe, Japan and basically the whole world is joining the US to hunt Huawei down.

From the news I've been reading lately, from CNN, BBC to NYT, WP, AP, Reuters, none of them seemed to care enough to read into what Huawei has been saying, or what Ren Zhengfei has been saying. The threads on this forum seemed to be the only place I could find on English internet that tries to piece together all relevant information and figure out what exactly the ban means to Huawei, which parts of its business will be impacted, and to what degree. All other MSM seemed to just want to pronounce Huawei dead and then that's it.

Personally I think to win any war, you need to really understand your opponent and how much damage your shots will deal. Over-confidence can sometime mean ignorance and I don't think that's a good thing for you.

xiabonan said:

Also, there seems to be very little reporting and diving in on Huawei's abilities to replace US chips, develop its own OS, and to maintain its ties with other non-US partners in US and western MSM in general.

Huawei said Germany's Infineon is continuing to supply it with components. Panasonic and Toshiba have also made official statements saying they will continue supply to Huawei while scrutinising if any parts supplied to Huawei is subject to the ban. But if you google it all you see is news that Infineon, Panasonic, and Toshiba you don't see many such positive stories (well, positive depending on your position).

From the news I've been reading lately, from CNN, BBC to NYT, WP, AP, Reuters, none of them seemed to care enough to read into what Huawei has been saying, or what Ren Zhengfei has been saying. The threads on this forum seemed to be the only place I could find on English internet that tries to piece together all relevant information and figure out what exactly the ban means to Huawei, which parts of its business will be impacted, and to what degree. All other MSM seemed to just want to pronounce Huawei dead and then that's it.

Personally I think to win any war, you need to really understand your opponent and how much damage your shots will deal. Over-confidence can sometime mean ignorance.

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They did this on purpose to bring maximum downward effect on Huawei's phone sales. Spread misinformation that would make most people think that a Huawei phone will turn into a brick to cause panic-selling. Only after a few months when people notice Huawei phones still working fine will they return to buying it again. This is the country willing to put fake 5G logos on everything to make people think the US can do 5G too so this would really not be below them.

And Trump mentioning including Huawei in a deal badly weakens the national security argument and is legal ammunition for Huawei.

Guys let's keep our tone down a bit otherwise this thread might be closed too. Your account might be banned as well.

Huawei might or might not have backup chips, but I certainly don't have a backup account on this forum.

xiabonan said:

Also, there seems to be very little reporting and diving in on Huawei's abilities to replace US chips, develop its own OS, and to maintain its ties with other non-US partners in US and western MSM in general.

Huawei said Germany's Infineon is continuing to supply it with components. Panasonic and Toshiba have also made official statements saying they will continue supply to Huawei while scrutinising if any parts supplied to Huawei is subject to the ban. But if you google it all you see is news that Infineon, Panasonic, and Toshiba you don't see many such positive stories (well, positive depending on your position) and there are heaps of reports of how Europe, Japan and basically the whole world is joining the US to hunt Huawei down.

From the news I've been reading lately, from CNN, BBC to NYT, WP, AP, Reuters, none of them seemed to care enough to read into what Huawei has been saying, or what Ren Zhengfei has been saying. The threads on this forum seemed to be the only place I could find on English internet that tries to piece together all relevant information and figure out what exactly the ban means to Huawei, which parts of its business will be impacted, and to what degree. All other MSM seemed to just want to pronounce Huawei dead and then that's it.

Personally I think to win any war, you need to really understand your opponent and how much damage your shots will deal. Over-confidence can sometime mean ignorance and I don't think that's a good thing for you.

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YUP here is the most important news of the day

Taiwan's TSMC says chip shipments to Huawei not affected by U.S. ban

HSINCHU, Taiwan (Reuters) - TSMC, the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, said on Thursday its shipments to China’s Huawei Technologies Co Ltd are not affected by U.S. action aimed at curbing the telecom equipment maker’s access to American technology.

The comment was made by spokeswoman Elizabeth Sun at the TSMC 2019 Technology Symposium in Taiwan’s tech hub of Hsinchu.

TSMC, formally Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, previously said it would maintain supplies to Huawei for the time being, and that it was assessing the impact of Washington’s decision to limit access to goods incorporating U.S. technology.

With TSMC maintaining its shipment, we can now have a clearer picture of the impact of the ban on Huawei, let me do a little summary.

Impact on 5G equipment: basically very little, in the sense that Huawei can continue to fulfill its orders and ship 5G equipment. This is because of two main reasons, first is Huawei has been stockpiling for months before the ban, according to both Chinese and US news reports, inventory for American chips range anywhere between 3 to 12 months depending on their importance. Now Huawei has been granted a 90-day temporary license, it can continue to stockpile more chips during this period and make sure for some of the most critical and hard to replace components there are at least over a year of supply. Also, Huawei has its own chip designs for 5G equipment and TSMC can continue to supply Huawei. These put together would mean that Huawei has about a year or more time to perfect its chip designs and test it out with customers to build trust and confidence in their own chips, and when inventory of American chips are depleted their own chips can shoulder most of the burden and fill the void.

Smartphone business: huge impacts outside China, little impacts within China. So basically this means huge impacts to half its business, and little impacts to another half of its business. Hardware wise, the impact mostly comes from ARM. But this won't be felt in quite some time as Huawei can continue to use existing structures already licensed by ARM. Software wise the impacts are more damaging as without pre-installed Google apps its phones will essentially become useless to the vast majority of consumers outside of China. So this remains a sticking point that still awaits answers. The worst scenario would be for Huawei to fully retract its phone business back to China and wait for an opportunity to go back to overseas markets. In any case, its phone business probably will be dealt with a heavy blow, but it's not enough to fully kill it off.

Impact on other products: this include things like routers, wireless sticks, etc. These things are not that hi-tech and contribute little to Huawei's overall revenue. Ren has openly said that if such a product line cannot survive without American components, Huawei will just kill it off themselve.

I just went to Aptoide and key in youtube Yes the carry youtube app The only problem is the server would know it is Huawei hardware and cancelled any connection
Any comment?. Is there anyway to mask the device ID

Hendrik_2000 said:

I just went to Aptoide and key in youtube Yes the carry youtube app The only problem is the server would know it is Huawei hardware and cancelled any connection
Any comment?. Is there anyway to mask the device ID

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

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I can download the .apk from the browser in my PC. You should be able to sideload that into the phone.
I assume it is blocking by IP rather than device ID.

Exactly, it is like I said, the impact of sanctions like these just two years ago would have been much greater.

Right now Samsung has a V-NAND fab in China, Hynix has a 10nm DRAM fab, do you think these companies are nuts enough to throw a multi-billion dollar fab and tool investment into the trash like that? Samsung spent $7 billion USD on that fab, and is in the process of spending another $7 billion USD. Hynix spent $8.6 billion USD. Even worse, if they shut down the fabs, they'll still have to pay back to China the loans the government gave them to build the fabs. Every day that passes they aren't fabbing chips their tool investment is depreciating. Plus they won't get a deal like that anywhere else. No way they are going to cut and go just like that. Even less when DRAM prices are at historically high levels as it is.

Hynix's fab expansion, for example, was just inaugurated last month.



I think the US clearly overestimates its own strength in the current semiconductor business. Most of the players today are in Asia. If the US imposes heavy handed sanctions I think it will start a mass movement of these companies and supply chains outside the US. If there is something you can't have in a business like this, with huge capital expenditures, is a nutjob changing the rules of the game with every tweet he does like Trump. Today he's doing it to Huawei in China, who knows who will be next?

Like you said, I keep seeing reports in the news about how some company cut supplies to Huawei, but when you more deeply examine the actual news its a lot more nuanced than that. This is forcing everyone to reexamine their supply chains basically.

Still, China needs to take this chance to vertically integrate the chip supply chain from materials, to tools, to chip designs, and production. I think investments into pie in the sky things like "AI" should be trimmed down in favor of that.

There are also nascent CPU designs in China. Mainly in the server and smartphone/tablet SoC business. There was also investment into AI chips. What I think is severely lacking is investment into more prosaic things like DSPs and GPUs.

On a lighter note, I saw an Australian news article yesterday that really made me feel speechless.



This is the link. The articles suggests that due to US actions supply chains and manufacturers will shift away from China and "The best that China can realistically hope for at this stage is a series of ceasefires that avoid serious damage to its economic growth, financial stability and broader development process."

So it is suggesting that somehow this is all the fault of the Chinese and that by weaponizing commerce, trade, and companies, global supply chain will all move out of China? In the short term, maybes some will shift, but shouldn't Trump's actions also make other countries and companies re-think about their reliance and dependence on US firms? With Trump in power there's no "safe ally", he will pull the trigger. Isn't Trump making the US more unreliable as opposed to the other round?

Export to the US is only 20% of China’s total export. If you are a factory owner, would you move your entire factory for just 20% of your output? Plus you will lose competitiveness for the rest 80% which are sold to the rest of the world? If you do, your competitors who remain in china will eat your market share for lunch