Re: PLAN submarines Thread II
Now lets go the two subs in the picture. Why do I think they're not falsely PSed? Simply because they're not something I would expect a PSer to make.
Look for motivation. The PSer might be artistic, nationalistic and creative, but since he's an amateur, he's not likely to know much about sub technologies and its nuances. Given his mindset, he would do something like, take the 094, stretch it, and add more missile containers. That would not be hard to do, and give the boisterous impression you know have 16 to 24 missile sub. Another scheme might be to take the turtleback design of an Ohio class, maybe the Delta IV or the Vanguard class, then graft it on the back of the 094 while stretching the sub long enough.
The point is, the PSer plays by fanboy expectations. His creation is the fulfillment of everyone's wish list. It is too good to be true. A real picture would have some real disappointing things about it. When the first picture of the 094 came out, and everyone was so seriously disappointed that it looked a Xia, and many even insisted its really a second or third Xia. But I know its real, because a faker would not produce a disappointment.
In the process of doing so, the hoaxer will betray his lack of engineering knowledge and design, and he will make mistakes that someone familiar with design will spot.
The 094s look modified, but they don't fit the wish list by far. There are still the 12 tubes, and yeah, all those holes in the side instead of having a preferably clean look. However the back is much lower, so that is the potential improvement in these subs. With the back lower, its probably more hydrodynamic than the 094 with the "high back", which means it can be faster and less noisier in the process. And with the missiles lower, the sub's center of gravity is also lower, so it will probably handle better, and wont' roll as much in the surface in rougher seas. The holes are smaller, so less noise will come out when they're open. Again the look is more evolutionary than revolutionary, which fits the PLAN development pattern as historically observed. PS'ers, hoaxers, amateurs and dreamers tend to be more revolutionary.
As we have seen in previous patterns, the PLAN does not get it right in the first try, so the second and third tries are going to have changes. So its not in the realm of unbelievability that the next few 094s are going to be different from the first (or second). Also makes me wonder how the first 093 would look like, and the second or third and subsequent examples would be.
Given that there was previous picture of the high back 094 in Sanya, there is reason to believe there may be three 094s in SSF. That's more than just testing, that's an operational deployment. One can imagine that in the NSF, subs are going to be watched more closely by the Korean and Japanese navies, but the navies in the South China seas are far less capable. The geography of the north seas means its pretty bottled up by the Korean peninsula and Japanese archipelago. The south is still bottled up, but there are more "holes" to go through to access the open ocean.
So the question is, how many of the high back 094s are there? Which should be the one previously spotted in Xiaopingdao.
What are the two 094s in the GE picture of Huludao?
What is the third sub whose butt is protruding from the assembly hall in that picture.
Did the first 094 return back to Huludao for that famous picture back in October?
Are these pictures deliberate leaks?
