antiterror13
Brigadier
Radar, SAM, land based AShM, CIWS, long runway, etc ... may help you to understand it ...
Also don't you think China don't have subs, frigates, DDG, etc, etc
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PLAN SCS Bases/Islands/Vessels (Not a Strategy Page)
- Thread starter lilzz
- Start date
Radar, SAM, land based AShM, CIWS, long runway, etc ... may help you to understand it ...
Also don't you think China don't have subs, frigates, DDG, etc, etc
All i am saying is, as compared to the numerous installations on spratlys and paracels, a single installation on scarborough will be more susceptible to attack, comparatively.Radar, SAM, land based AShM, CIWS, long runway, etc ... may help you to understand it ...
Also don't you think China don't have subs, frigates, DDG, etc, etc
antiterror13
Brigadier
plawolf
Lieutenant General
The very different strategies wrt Scarborough is actually a good illustration of the different thinking between chest and go players.
In chess, you want to seize adventurous position as soon as you are able. Hence why most western analysists think China wants to build on Scarborough as soon as it is able, and that the only reason it hasn’t yet is because either China doesn’t think it is strong enough to defend that position, or are ‘deterred’ from doing so by western posturing.
However, what most western analysis fail to understand and/or appreciate is that Chinese strategists are overwhelmingly go players. And in go, often the greatest advantages are had precisely by not taking ground, and instead leave that move unplayed, but ready, as a means of controlling and limiting what your opponent can do.
China is not building on Scarborough because it sees keeping that move in reserve as a deterrent and counter as far more valuable than the geographical advantage they will get by actually building there.
In chess, you want to seize adventurous position as soon as you are able. Hence why most western analysists think China wants to build on Scarborough as soon as it is able, and that the only reason it hasn’t yet is because either China doesn’t think it is strong enough to defend that position, or are ‘deterred’ from doing so by western posturing.
However, what most western analysis fail to understand and/or appreciate is that Chinese strategists are overwhelmingly go players. And in go, often the greatest advantages are had precisely by not taking ground, and instead leave that move unplayed, but ready, as a means of controlling and limiting what your opponent can do.
China is not building on Scarborough because it sees keeping that move in reserve as a deterrent and counter as far more valuable than the geographical advantage they will get by actually building there.
The simple argument is that it'll be hard to defend as compared to paracel and spratly because of its isolation. The attacker hence might try to attack it first as it seems an easy target. From perspective of a defender, then, defending scarborough is harder because it provides more possibilities of favourable conditions to the attacker.why and how? are you trying moving the goal post?
On the other hand it also works as a first line defence and would help the groups at spratly and paracel to better withstand the attacker as the scarborough would have already faced the brunt of the attack and withered down the attackers force to some extent. For the defenders at scar, it'll obviously mean great losses.It is an awesome tactical advantage to operate from scar for the PLA force as a whole, but not for the units dispatched to it.
Unless US Navy has already sunk majority of PLAN, your scenario will not happen. If PLAN is gone, there is no point of having those island bases
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
It has been a while since we get picture from Yongshu seem to be more greenery now. Amazing still not finish with building construction
China's Ministry of Transport opened a maritime rescue center on Yongshu Reef of the Nansha Islands on Tuesday to better protect navigation and transport safety in the South China Sea.
China's Ministry of Transport opened a maritime rescue center on Yongshu Reef of the Nansha Islands on Tuesday to better protect navigation and transport safety in the South China Sea.
I think this photo is old. Maybe publicated now but taken a while ago.
It troubles us in the region in particular those in ASEAN that the South China Sea could be a "Sea of Turmoil", where not only hostilities but a possible start of a War. Those of us who were involved in hostilities & wars in the past would know what that means - disasters, sufferings, innocent lives lost. Unfortunately, there are indications of probable intensified activities including regular (?) "close" sailings near the Chinese claimed islands by USN and others in the South China Sea. For those who know & studied China, the PRC will defend the islands vigorously. We on business & investment sectors are very wary of what could happen in 2019 & beyond. The South China Sea couldl be a major/serious "flash point". We should leave it to the National Leaders including the US, China, ASEAN & their Respected & Experienced Diplomats to meet and discuss the problems very seriously. Hopefully soon, as I quite often mentioned in Sino-Defence: "Jaw Jaw NOT War War". There is also a wise Chinese saying "Nothing is impossible for those who have a strong will".
I'm sorry. I can't resist. I try to stay away as I'm busy filling all the tax returns in for the deadline.
But whilst takong 5min out. I noticed this post!
Now while I agree and sympathised with people around the SCS about possible conflicts.
I differ in the solution you offered. You suggested the people's should get together and quoting Churchill people should "JAW JAW. not war war"
But your solution includes USA. And here lies the problem that can't be solved. The problem in the SCS is caused by one country and one country alone. And thar country is from outside the area with no stake in the area what so ever!) don't believe in the propoganda of the so called FONOPS.
in the event where some power should impede the FON. the biggest country to suffer is China as most shipping passing the SCS is coming from or to China!
The problem can be solved overnight if just one country leave the area with immediate effect!