PLAN SCS Bases/Islands/Vessels (Not a Strategy Page)

jacksprat said:

Helicopters don't always need to land, they are usually equipped with winches and cargo hooks used for personnel and/or cargo transfers. Basket ball courts are just fine for those purposes.

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Yes, I fully realize this and it is probably what they are doing now.

But with a fully functional landing pad, resupply and personnel transfer becomes much safer, and they can accomplish more, quicker.

I'd still think that putting one in place would be worth their while. It just depends on how much value they see in it.

jobjed, plawolf, I agree.
But setting up an ADIZ without long runways in the area would be difficult. A special version of J-15 without folding wings would be excessively expensive. Versions of L-15 and JL-9G are more likely and their availability is an incentive to others not to set up an ADIZ.

delft said:

jobjed, plawolf, I agree.
But setting up an ADIZ without long runways in the area would be difficult. A special version of J-15 without folding wings would be excessively expensive. Versions of L-15 and JL-9G are more likely and their availability is an incentive to others not to set up an ADIZ.

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Don't forget there is already a runway on Woody Island. Adding additional facilities such as more hangars and fuel depots isn't hard to provide the extended range you are discussing. Be far cheaper than to procure and produce versions of L-15 and JL-9Gs just to satisfy ADIZ requirements. But as everyone has agreed so far, there's no immediate need to create an ADIZ in SCS, that tactic will only make the current situation worse. Not many countries in that area can maintain a large ADIZ nor the tempo of ops needed to sustain one. So chances are, if China doesn't create one, others will remain status quo.

plawolf said:

I agree with Job. Its simply not in China's style to raise the stakes and heighten tensions unilaterally no matter what the western press likes to say.

If anything, the establishment if the East China Sea ADIZ is a good example for South East Asian States with disputed claims with China to see just what poking the dragon gets you.

If China sets up an ADIZ in the South China East which covers disputed islands, that may well force the likes of Vietnam and the Philipines to respond even if they don't want to so as to avoid looking like they are backing down or conceding. In addition, setting up another ADIZ would only play into the hands of America and the western media as they could then use the reaction from South East Asian countries to continue their narrative that it is China that is making waves.

However, even if China did nothing, none of those countries are stupid and can see clearly that setting up an ADIZ is now an option Beijing could use if they annoyed China sufficiently, so if anything, the threat of setting up an ADIZ is a much greater and effective deterrent than actually setting one up. So things may actually quieten down a little.

If anything, I would be wary of Washington trying to entice the likes of the Philipines into sending out military air patrols over disputed territory precisely to provoke China into setting up another ADIZ so that Washington and their minions in the press can paint the Chinese ADIZ as some kind of sinister land grab attempt and continue their narrative that China is cause problems with 'all' its neighbours.

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I'd add that Vietnam and the Philippines know they can't play an ADIZ tag game with China, given how much larger it is.
They can barely afford to operate the few fighter aircraft that they already have.

Plus ASEAN and China form a natural economic bloc given their geography, population sizes, wealth levels and cultures.
This combined group would have 2billion people and comprise the world's largest economic bloc.
There is no way that it can be contained by anyone, either by economic or military means.

Cheng said:

Plus ASEAN and China form a natural economic bloc given their geography, population sizes, wealth levels and cultures.

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Nope.

Out of all ASEAN countries there are two which you could count as 'traditional Chinese voices' in the group: it's Laos and, especially, Cambodia which was constantly breaking the negatiations to establish a code of conduct by the whole ASEAN region. The rest are much closer to Japan/USA in their international affairs or in territorial disputes with PRC. Where Abe took his first steps after being elected to be Japanese PM? - he went to Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam. What's more Abe went to Cambodia and he even got some kind of cooperation between Cambodian Army and SDF, mine clearing in the country, founded hospital from Japanese money and got Cambodian government stance on territorial disputes similar to other ASEAN countries. He was also the first Japanese PM in 13 years who went to Laos this year and got positive response in both countries that belong to 'pro-Chinese' clique.

You're right in your assesment of degree of importance that three big countries pay on this region (from now on it could only grow bigger and overshadow Korean Peninsula if there's no risk of conflict) with their diplomatic relations. For now if the ASEAN countries could form an uniform code of conduct it's hard to get an impression that it will be pro-Chinese. Neutral at best and if China will escalate the local conflicts with it's ASEAN neighbours it could grow even anti-Chinese.

If you look at it in bigger picture you'll maybe get why China became so active on East Chinese Sea recently

Rutim said:

Nope.

Out of all ASEAN countries there are two which you could count as 'traditional Chinese voices' in the group: it's Laos and, especially, Cambodia which was constantly breaking the negatiations to establish a code of conduct by the whole ASEAN region. The rest are much closer to Japan/USA in their international affairs or in territorial disputes with PRC. Where Abe took his first steps after being elected to be Japanese PM? - he went to Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam.

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Malaysia, Thailand, Myanmar, and Indonesia aren't really closer to Japan/USA in international affairs or in territorial disputes with China either. Singapore is hedging its bets but not necessarily anti-China and Brunei is in a similar position. So that really leaves Vietnam and the Philippines in the Japan/USA camp. But even Vietnam is hedging and has been in discussions with China on joint development at sea.

Abe hitting SE Asian isn't that groundbreaking, there really isn't much for him to do in E Asia as no country there is feeling very warm to him. It's pretty much the next best thing he could do on the international scene. Traditionally, SK and Japanese leaders meet soon after elected into office. That hasn't happened this time.

But this is digressing, don't need to see another thread closed. Further discussion of Japanese politics is probably best in the Japan military news thread?

Hainan Navy base is ready to receive its first aircraft carrier docking. Liaoning which is in SCS now may be based there for current duration of training.

BEIJING, Nov. 28 (Xinhua) -- A Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman said on Thursday that the navy harbor in south China's Sanya City has the preliminary capability of docking China's first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning.

The aircraft carrier is currently on a scientific and training mission in the South China Sea, said Yang Yujun, the ministry's spokesman, at a monthly news briefing.

"The harbor in Sanya has the preliminary capability of docking the aircraft carrier," Yang said, in response to a question whether the Liaoning will be docking at the Sanya base.

The Liaoning left its home port of Qingdao in east China's Shandong Province for the South China Sea on Tuesday, and passed through the Taiwan Strait on Thursday morning.

This is the first time the Liaoning has conducted a cross-sea training voyage since it was commissioned into the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy last year.

It was escorted by two missile destroyers, the Shenyang and Shijiazhuang, and two missile frigates, the Yantai and Weifang.

In response to a question about why the vessel passed through the Taiwan Strait, Yang said the Liaoning's South China Sea trial had been announced in advance, and it is a normal arrangement in the carrier's scheduled training.

"It does not target any region or any country, and has nothing to do with the current international situation," said Yang. "There is no need for over-interpretation."

Long cross-sea voyages are a necessary stage of experimentation and training to test equipment and troops under continuous use and different hydrological and meteorological conditions.

The Liaoning is China's only aircraft carrier in operation. It was refitted based on an unfinished Russian-made carrier and delivered to the navy on Sept. 25, 2012

Rutim said:

Nope.

Out of all ASEAN countries there are two which you could count as 'traditional Chinese voices' in the group: it's Laos and, especially, Cambodia which was constantly breaking the negatiations to establish a code of conduct by the whole ASEAN region. The rest are much closer to Japan/USA in their international affairs or in territorial disputes with PRC. Where Abe took his first steps after being elected to be Japanese PM? - he went to Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam. What's more Abe went to Cambodia and he even got some kind of cooperation between Cambodian Army and SDF, mine clearing in the country, founded hospital from Japanese money and got Cambodian government stance on territorial disputes similar to other ASEAN countries. He was also the first Japanese PM in 13 years who went to Laos this year and got positive response in both countries that belong to 'pro-Chinese' clique.

You're right in your assesment of degree of importance that three big countries pay on this region (from now on it could only grow bigger and overshadow Korean Peninsula if there's no risk of conflict) with their diplomatic relations. For now if the ASEAN countries could form an uniform code of conduct it's hard to get an impression that it will be pro-Chinese. Neutral at best and if China will escalate the local conflicts with it's ASEAN neighbours it could grow even anti-Chinese.

If you look at it in bigger picture you'll maybe get why China became so active on East Chinese Sea recently

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This is what wealthy developed Singapore sees. Imagine what the poorer countries think.

China is already a superpower: S'porean minister

China does not get enough credit for what it has achieved and the superpower role it already plays in the world, said Singapore Law and Foreign Minister K. Shanmugam.

Speaking at The Straits Times Global Outlook Forum last Friday, he noted that the reality of a China-dominated region is "already here".

Article below

Storm Clouds Over the South China Sea

The critical issue is access to the sea-lanes in one of the globe’s busiest waterways. More than half of the world’s shipping passes through the South China Sea every year, more than through the Suez and Panama Canals combined. Some 70,000 ships carrying $5.3 trillion worth of goods moved along those sea-lanes in 2011. Of that, $1.2 trillion worth was trade that directly affected the US. An estimated 80 percent of China’s imported oil for its surging economy comes though the SCS. Altogether, shipping through the sea is essential to the economy of every nation in North America and East Asia, including allies such as Japan and South Korea.

Article below


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I'm doing a quick analysis and the South China Sea is critical to the Chinese economy but NOT to the USA economy.
China-related trade accounts for more shipping in the SCS than everyone else in the world combined.

Therefore a situation where the US is providing military security in the South China Sea is an anomaly.

I thought there were a number of posts in this thread, looking at the cost-benefit of airrcfat carriers versus land-based aircraft in the SCS?