Someone I knew has recently been working on a project in the SCS and returned with some interesting stories which could add some historical perspective that is still relevant today to the disputes.
These are all second hand stories, so take them with as much salt as you see fit.
Firstly, if anyone has ever wondered why the Chinese station so many marines on their SCS outposts, especially when they were just tiny specs before the recent island building, that was because the Chinese marines had learnt some bitter lessons when they only stationed small detachments originally.
Until very recently, communications with China's SCS outposts was difficult and sporadic, never mind China's ability to effectively monitor what is going own down there.
There have been instances when Chinese supply ships arrived to find the entire garrison of an outpost murdered.
The PLA is convinced that it was the Vietnamese who did it, but lacks enough evidence to make a convincing case against them. Meaning they couldn't make a massive fuss diplomatically or publicly about it, so they only recourse was to remember and make sure they never allow themselves to be so exposed again. Hence the unusually large garrisons.
Another more recent issue has been sabotage.
Vietnamese divers often use civilian fishing boats as cover to get in position and then cut Chinese underwater cables.
A lot of the more publicised clashes between Chinese coast guard ships and Vietnamese fishing boats happened near Chinese underwater capable routes.
Because of the the past sabotage, the Chinese tend to take a hard line on Vietnamese fishing boats loitering near those cable routes an try to chase them off whenever they are spotted in those areas.
The more reluctant the Vietnamese fishing boats are in leaving the area, the more convinced the Chinese become that they are Vietnamese covert ops teams trying to cut cables, and the more hardline the Chinese tend to get in response.
The very violent clashes between Chinese coast guard and Vietnamese 'fishing boats' around the Chinese old rig recently was a perfect example where the Vietnamese sent in covert forces in the guise of civilian fishermen trying to sabotage Chinese equipment, and the Chinese Coast guard was having none of it.
As the Chinese deploy more and more assets into the SCS, much of it unmanned, expect these clashes to spread and intensify as the Vietnamese try to sabotage Chinese equipment and the Chinese coast guard tries to stop them.
Bremen Bank - in true color.
