PLAN SCS Bases/Islands/Vessels (Not a Strategy Page)

plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
antiterror13 said:
It explains why Vietnam has been quiet of Chinese reclamation activity. They are doing it themselves ... just this time bad luck/bad planning for them
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Shame or hypocrisy has never deterred Vietnam before. The reason they are keeping quiet now is because of the power transition. They don't want to annoy China, who can easily bring pressure to bear to magnify and exacerbate internal divides and factionalism within the Vietnamese Communist Party when they most crave unity and a smooth transition.
 
Geographer

Geographer

Junior Member
Why doesn't China try to stop Vietnamese reclamation? I doubt Vietnam will be deterred by the typhoon and will surely try again.

Another option for China is to build its own bases on Vietnamese-occupied reefs. Would Vietnam risk a naval war it cannot win in order to stop the Chinese reclamation?
 
A

antiterror13

Brigadier
Geographer said:
Why doesn't China try to stop Vietnamese reclamation? I doubt Vietnam will be deterred by the typhoon and will surely try again.

Another option for China is to build its own bases on Vietnamese-occupied reefs. Would Vietnam risk a naval war it cannot win in order to stop the Chinese reclamation?
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I don't think China would stop anything Vietnam or other parties (Phil, Malaysia or Taiwan) doing, in fact China would be happy they are doing it, so China can't be blamed ....... just competing who can do the most ... which no doubt in my mind would be China ... no other countries could do even close
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
antiterror13 said:
I don't think China would stop anything Vietnam or other parties (Phil, Malaysia or Taiwan) doing, in fact China would be happy they are doing it, so China can't be blamed ....... just competing who can do the most ... which no doubt in my mind would be China ... no other countries could do even close
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My question is what was Vietnam thinking when they continued widespread land reclamation after the 2002 DOC?

Surely they knew they couldn't hope to compete with China in island reclamation and base building in the South China Seas, and at the same time they set a serious precedent.

Is it Dai Viet (Great Vietnam) syndrome again?
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Geographer said:
Why doesn't China try to stop Vietnamese reclamation? I doubt Vietnam will be deterred by the typhoon and will surely try again.

Another option for China is to build its own bases on Vietnamese-occupied reefs. Would Vietnam risk a naval war it cannot win in order to stop the Chinese reclamation?
Click to expand...

Stopping reclamation work being conducted another party means blocking their dredging ships, which presumably would be covered by the coast guard or navy.

Such action would likely turn violent, which is in no-one's interests. This is the same reason why no-one has else has come up with a counter to Chinese land reclamation activities in the SCS.

And does China actually need to build on Vietnamese-occupied reefs? China will soon have 3 full-scale bases that potentially could dominate the SCS.
 
Blackstone

Blackstone

Brigadier
Geographer said:
Why doesn't China try to stop Vietnamese reclamation? I doubt Vietnam will be deterred by the typhoon and will surely try again.
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Because in the short-run, the juice isn't worth the squeeze, and in the long-run, Vietnam is in an unattainable position.

Another option for China is to build its own bases on Vietnamese-occupied reefs. Would Vietnam risk a naval war it cannot win in order to stop the Chinese reclamation?
Click to expand...
There's no need to do that, because China doesn't have to occupy every single SCS land feature to dominate it the way US dominates the Caribbean. In the short-run, other claimant's occupation forces don't impede China's ability to roam and control the SCS, and the cost of evicting them probably exceed benefits, so it's wiser to play the long game and evict them when conditions are right.
 
W

weig2000

Captain
Blackstone said:
Because in the short-run, the juice isn't worth the squeeze, and in the long-run, Vietnam is in an unattainable position.


There's no need to do that, because China doesn't have to occupy every single SCS land feature to dominate it the way US dominates the Caribbean. In the short-run, other claimant's occupation forces don't impede China's ability to roam and control the SCS, and the cost of evicting them probably exceed benefits, so it's wiser to play the long game and evict them when conditions are right.
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Precisely. Think of the different types of game: Go or Chess. What China is playing in SCS is Go, whereas the above suggestion is more in the line of Chess, i.e., eating or directly destroying your enemies.
 
Equation

Equation

Lieutenant General
weig2000 said:
Precisely. Think of the different types of game: Go or Chess. What China is playing in SCS is Go, whereas the above suggestion is more in the line of Chess, i.e., eating or directly destroying your enemies.
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But with lives and money at stake. I like to think of it as a game of poker. Just that China a lot more chips to play with and a good hand, meanwhile other players can only whine about the US to lend them some more poker chips to play for with the poor hand they had. That puts the US in an unwanted bind because China just lend them some major chips and they don't want to waste it on a rock in the middle of the ocean but they have to play along or else lose face.
 
M

mr.bean

Junior Member
weig2000 said:
Precisely. Think of the different types of game: Go or Chess. What China is playing in SCS is Go, whereas the above suggestion is more in the line of Chess, i.e., eating or directly destroying your enemies.
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China at the moment is building up it's strength. the navy, coast guard, islands, oil and gas equipment so in the right time if necessary it can switch from Go to Chess or from Chess to Poker. The viets and the pinoys are going to have ''interesting'' times with China in the SCS. They haven't seen nothing yet because the game has not even begun.
 
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