PLAN building schedule 2021 to 2025

ZeEa5KPul said:

That's the summary of your post, the rest is zero or "I dunno lol". Take a look at how many ships China launched between 2015 and 2020 and examine whether what you just wrote is reasonable.

The numbers you responded to aren't random guesswork and "I reckon" like yours. They are measurements:

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Maikeru said:

That Diplomat article is very informative, I didn't realise the smaller hall is the paint shop. Anyway looking at HI Sutton image again I think the new hall is 2 x 'bays', which means up to an additional 8 SSN or 2 SSBN can be constructed at once on top of the 12/3 in the existing hall.

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Maikeru said:

I think that is an overestimate. Looking at the imagery here:

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there is one completed 3x hall with a much smaller 1x hall next to it, and another 3x or 4x hall under construction. On that basis I reckon
3x SSBN + 1x SSN for the existing halls, 3 or 4 x SS(B)N in new hall, although from the imagery I think the new hall has smaller track width so probably SSN. Not sure how feasible it is to construct subs 1 behind the other on the same trackway, as the hull sections go in rear first.

Also do we know if the original small hall on the other side of the shipyard is still in use? I would guess not but nothing to confirm that.

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AndrewS said:

That's what I already said.

Plus you do realise the article was written by one of the mods here

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sinophilia said:

Well he did say across both halls up to 5 SSBNs, so your estimate of up to 5 SSBNs across both halls is the same.

How many SSNs are you saying if they were used up solely for that. He is saying 20.

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Maikeru said:

20 would be an absolute maximum, I suppose you could say 21 with 1 in the paint shop.

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AndrewS said:

That isn't how it works. It's just a short time in the paint shop.

Say 20 SSNs fill all the slots, and that it takes 10 months (not 12 months) to fully assemble a SSN
Over 5 years, you could theoretically have more than 20 SSNs produced per year

But suppose it takes 15 months to assemble an SSN or SSBN?

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Maikeru said:

I thought the question was how many could be built at once, not how many per year.

If we say it takes 4 years to build an SSN then that's 5 per year.

Currently Virginia class appear to be taking ~3 years from laid down to commissioned, obviously the early boats took much longer.

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AndrewS said:

@Maikeru

Last year, we actually had a discussion on potential production numbers of nuclear submarines starting here

www.sinodefenceforum.com/t/type-09v-09vi-095-096-nuclear-submarine-thread.8228/page-60

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Maikeru said:

Yes I saw that after I started posting on this thread! I am new here and haven't had time to read back on every thread of interest.

If it only takes ~10 months inside the hall then Bohai could really churn them out like sausages/dumplings, but there must be bottlenecks elsewhere in the production line? Reactors?

There's also the small matter of SSP production, HI Sutton reckons up to 8 at a time at Wanchang: PLAN building schedule 2021 to 2025

Not sure how long the build time is for SSP vs SSN.

Of course there is also SSBN production to factor in for Bohai, each of them will take out 4 SSN slots in the halls for however long.

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