Y-8Q...
PLAN ASW Capability
- Thread starter shen
- Start date
Shilao and the gang talked a little bit about Ka-28 and Chinese ASW helicopters in the recent episode (From about 1 hour mark)
They talked about how PLAN had to go with Ka-28s (bought 18) in the early 2000s. The only other choice was Z-9C, which was not large enough to carry torpedoes along with dipping sonar and sonar buoys and other equipment. So, they needed 2 Z-9Cs to properly perform ASW task of 1 larger ASW helicopter.
All the PLAN surface combatant was designed to hold Ka-28 (so higher clearance for hangar).
Even so, didn't make sense to copy Ka-28. It's a very unique design and doesn't make sense for Chinese helicopter industry.
Since Ka-28 is starting to retire from service, PLAN is looking to quickly switch over to Z-20. 052D redesigned to have longer helipad and lower hangar for Z-20. Apparently, this is good for balance of 052D. my understanding is that Z-20 could land on 052D pad, but would be a little more cramped and slow down operation.
They said with that it should not surprise people that Z-20 naval version is coming out so soon after the army version joined service. This is badly needed.
Y-8/9Q can only go so far from mainland. Z-20F can carry light AshM, light torpedoes, dipping sonar, sonobuoys, depth charges and have MAD sensor as well as large surface search radar. It has everything PLAN needed in an ASW helicopter.
Based on what I've heard, it appears like PLAN is planning much of its ASW strategy around Z-20s.
They talked about how PLAN had to go with Ka-28s (bought 18) in the early 2000s. The only other choice was Z-9C, which was not large enough to carry torpedoes along with dipping sonar and sonar buoys and other equipment. So, they needed 2 Z-9Cs to properly perform ASW task of 1 larger ASW helicopter.
All the PLAN surface combatant was designed to hold Ka-28 (so higher clearance for hangar).
Even so, didn't make sense to copy Ka-28. It's a very unique design and doesn't make sense for Chinese helicopter industry.
Since Ka-28 is starting to retire from service, PLAN is looking to quickly switch over to Z-20. 052D redesigned to have longer helipad and lower hangar for Z-20. Apparently, this is good for balance of 052D. my understanding is that Z-20 could land on 052D pad, but would be a little more cramped and slow down operation.
They said with that it should not surprise people that Z-20 naval version is coming out so soon after the army version joined service. This is badly needed.
Y-8/9Q can only go so far from mainland. Z-20F can carry light AshM, light torpedoes, dipping sonar, sonobuoys, depth charges and have MAD sensor as well as large surface search radar. It has everything PLAN needed in an ASW helicopter.
Based on what I've heard, it appears like PLAN is planning much of its ASW strategy around Z-20s.
@Patchwork_Chimera Can you kindly provide us with insights on what the US/Pentagon view of the ASW capability of the PLA Navy as of current?
Because based on my limited scope of knowledge, China is still very much leagues away from the level of capabilities of the US and her allies. I think that Russian ASW capability is also better than the Chinese.
Because based on my limited scope of knowledge, China is still very much leagues away from the level of capabilities of the US and her allies. I think that Russian ASW capability is also better than the Chinese.
China's fleet of Oceanographic surveillance ships (like SURTASS ships) also profiled on Binggong Keji. Kind of like what we talked about, these SWATH ships will be very important in cuing up MPAs and helicopters.
We've been discussing type 927, since they are newer, but there is also the smaller Type 639/A ships they profiled here that were built a little earlier. In my mind, they are mostly so far serving in SSF and NSF because that's where they intend to patrol the 094s. But given that nuclear subs will be a huge threat from Taiwan to Guam to Honshu, ESF should get a few more of these too.
+my dear friend @Patchwork_Chimera here
serious question. So, we've discussed how 2025 is considered like an optimal time for China to launch a surprise/Pearl Harbor attack on US forces in East Asia, but what if that is not something China wants to do (meaning it wants to wait for US to cross some kind of red line regarding helping Taiwan), wouldn't it be better to wait until they can better deal with the nuclear submarine threat?
To me, there is no better ASW option for PLAN than the retirement cliff facing USN nuclear fleet at the moment. I was reading this thread today.
and watched the clip here on Mitchell Institute interview
And then I look up here
That is 2 Ohio class and 9 Los Angeles class sub retiring in the next 4 years. US Navy is commissioning just a little over 1 Virginia class a year.
just looking at the list of LA class boats
If we take the next 9 from that list, then the remaining 17 were commissioned a little more than 5 years apart. Based on this, we will be down to 5 LA class boats in 7 years. By then, we might have 30 to 31 Virginia class. So, the SSN fleet is likely to drop from 47 right now to 36 by 2030. By then, they are also likely to have a small number of 095s
We've been discussing type 927, since they are newer, but there is also the smaller Type 639/A ships they profiled here that were built a little earlier. In my mind, they are mostly so far serving in SSF and NSF because that's where they intend to patrol the 094s. But given that nuclear subs will be a huge threat from Taiwan to Guam to Honshu, ESF should get a few more of these too.
+my dear friend @Patchwork_Chimera here
serious question. So, we've discussed how 2025 is considered like an optimal time for China to launch a surprise/Pearl Harbor attack on US forces in East Asia, but what if that is not something China wants to do (meaning it wants to wait for US to cross some kind of red line regarding helping Taiwan), wouldn't it be better to wait until they can better deal with the nuclear submarine threat?
To me, there is no better ASW option for PLAN than the retirement cliff facing USN nuclear fleet at the moment. I was reading this thread today.
and watched the clip here on Mitchell Institute interview
And then I look up here
That is 2 Ohio class and 9 Los Angeles class sub retiring in the next 4 years. US Navy is commissioning just a little over 1 Virginia class a year.
just looking at the list of LA class boats
If we take the next 9 from that list, then the remaining 17 were commissioned a little more than 5 years apart. Based on this, we will be down to 5 LA class boats in 7 years. By then, we might have 30 to 31 Virginia class. So, the SSN fleet is likely to drop from 47 right now to 36 by 2030. By then, they are also likely to have a small number of 095s
USN is acquiring 2 Virginias per year right now and will likely to continue at least at that pace in the future. There have also been articles written in the last 2 or so years where both the navy and the lawmakers spoke about their desire to fund and procure 3 Virginias per year. However, right now there are studies done about what'd be needed for that. It may be that the current shipyard capabilities do not allow it, and such an increase thus might take a few more years to facilitate, even if funded.
There is what is desired and what's possible. Lawmakers desire a lot of things when shipyards don't have the welders to actually do it. In America, there is this bad habit of not addressing a problem until it gets too big. The reality is that even with increased orders, they only commissioned 7 in the past 5 years. That's a fact.
And probably just as concerning (if you are USN), the 4 Ohio class SSGNs are the oldest and will likely retire before end of 2030. That is 600 VLS off the board. Each Virginia block V brings 28 additional VLS over LA class that's been replaced. As such, you need over 20 block V Virginia class in order to fully replace the Ohio class SSGNs. However, the block 5 Virginia class hasn't even being laid down yet. Anyway you look at it, SSN/SSGN fleet is going to get downsized. Keep in mind Ohio class needs to be fully replaced by 2040. As such, a very large portion of US Naval budget over the next 15 years will be devoted to Columbia class and the development of the next generation SSN.
If you are PLAN, I think the start of mass production of 095 and the retirement cliff of LA/Ohio class is a time where submarine threat comes down significantly. You are dealing with fewer subs and you will have sort of a competitive sub that can hunt down Virginia class for you.
Commissioning dates are affected by bureaucracy. It is better to look at launch dates since they are the direct indicators of building speed. The USA averaged 1.4 Virginias per year since 2012. Soon, they will start building Columbias. I think the plan of building 2 Virginias and a Columbia every year is a pipe dream without massive extra funding. Almost none of the US post cold war acquisition plans could be achieved as envisioned. This one will likely go as such.