broadsword
Brigadier
If the device can throw dead-loads hundreds simulating a 30 or 40 tonne plane akin to the frequency in an actual scenario, I think it is fair to say the device is ready.
If the device can throw dead-loads hundreds simulating a 30 or 40 tonne plane akin to the frequency in an actual scenario, I think it is fair to say the device is ready.
If the device can throw dead-loads hundreds simulating a 30 or 40 tonne plane akin to the frequency in an actual scenario, I think it is fair to say the device is ready.
What I'm trying to get at is if the blocker is the PLAN it's almost certain they're at or past the stage of throwing dead loads.Fundamentally I don't have a problem with what you have outlined which is a combination of deduction, inference and some degree of speculation that some amount of development work and testing had been ongoing. They may even have done some dead-load testings. Whether actual aircraft launches had been conducted and the degree if any is unknown and unlikely will be made known. In effect, we don't know how far progressed this program actually is and any assertion that it is well advanced is not backed by any evidence and was simply my point from the onset.
They would be foolish to do so.While I don't disagree with your point about actual installation, it's unlikely that they would try to get it perfect on land before installing the technology and bringing it to operation at sea.
Depends on what we mean by "getting it perfect".They would be foolish to do so.
They have a land based facility expressly for this purpose. They will get it working there before they begin trying it at sea for obvious reasons.
Safety of their pilots. Protection of expensive aircraft. And the huge cost of installing these onto carriers. They do not want to go through that cost and risk a faulty system that has to undergo major modifications.
They will get the aircraft being able to be reliably launched on ground, in as many different conditions simulating the carrier, before they do so at sea.
Time will tell...but I am very certain of this.
If the device can throw dead-loads hundreds simulating a 30 or 40 tonne plane akin to the frequency in an actual scenario, I think it is fair to say the device is ready.
It depends on whether what the spread of the failures look like over time. If failures are more strongly concentrated towards the start of testing, it implies a more rapid and easier testing process than if it's more evenly spread along the entirety of the testing timeline. Honestly even that 1967 tests with 201 failures and 204 mean cycles is too little information to assess how difficult or not this technology is.That is an overly simplistic view of testing, both the breadth and the nature needed. A comparable example in Lakehurst would be instructive.
1967 dead-load launches of which 201 failed. The 240 mean cycles between critical failures is five times higher than target. Clearly this not a system that can go live. Altogether over 3000 dead-load launches to-date but no failure statistics had been released on the wider testing and so we don't know whether a fix had been identified. In addition, 452 actual aircraft launches had been made comprising across a broad spectrum of planes (F-18; E-2; et al) with different loadings. There is a known excessive holdback release dynamics issue with no fix identified at this stage. Technically, known risk with this technology had been flushed out at an operational level where no known fix had been officially released. This has not even moved onto the carrier yet where further problems might still crop up. The goal of the Ford class was to achieve a 33 % improvement in launch rates at normal pace and 12% at surge. Clearly at this stage there are problems ahead.