He wanted to force a fight with Japan and the US
Well, I disagree Americans will be caught with their pants down and no rational Chinese planners can count on that.
PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC
- Thread starter SEAD
- Start date
This has been address by Blizto. What I would add is that as long as the U.S. is able to cut off China's trade and not vice versa, the fact will be used to extract concessions from the PRC in any negotiated settlement. Or, perhaps this very point alone would be enough for the West to never come to the negotiating table. The west has the capital stock, and more importantly, the space and markets they have cordoned off from the PRC, to reconfigure their industrial base.
As to Europe and Japan getting rekt, I like to joke that in scenarios in which U.S. prevails, its allies will join her in triumph of course, but theirs is through the path of sacrifice.
If you're cutting off trade to China, you're also cutting off trade from China to the west (US and allies) which would be a massive shock and have devasting effects.
Their industrial base cannot be reconfigured, at the very least, not without years to possibly a decade, not to mention they would need to completely build up from scratch a lot of industry that they no longer have or are so incredibly small that they can't satisfy their needs.
lol
I don't know why you even bother lol
People think that they will cut off China but the West will be better off because they have "wealth". They somehow think that their $10000 in Apple stocks, in their bank accounts, or in their 401k pensions, will still be able to buy something lmao
Any basic estimation would make the dollar something akin to a (not that dramatic but you get the idea) Zimbabwe dollar the moment trade with China is blocked and further disruptions in trade happen due to war. Too much money chasing too few goods. This will lead to rapid hyperinflation which will suddenly make this dollar-denominated "wealth" to be just hot air( unless you are a millionaire/billionaire of course). If they can't even handle a simple Russia economically, forget about doing anything at all on China.
As for China, It will be damaged, but for people who don't understand economics, it will still have its production facilities. Couple that with overland supplies by Russia and BRI, it will automatically make China much less damaged than the West
And btw, no, the West can't replace China within a decade. Minimum of 15 years required if they are ultra fast, but more realistically 20-25 years. You need infrastructure, trained workers, workers with the right mentality, unparalleled bureaucratic efficiency, need specialised machinery factories to be set up to build and equip facilities (no China to buy machinery from any more, Germany can't supply the whole West by itself), entire industries that have been lost and will need to be rebuilt from the scratch etc.
That's why when I see posts saying "oh well just blockade China, we will suffer but we will stand" I chuckle. It would certainly help if we had a person with actual qualifications (*cough* Gatekeeper *cough*) here to explain what happens when too much money chase too few goods
All in all, I would suggest dropping the detailed economic consequences thing as too many (wrong) hot takes are given. Just say economic damage resulting from a potential war and it should be understandable by everyone.
Eh, I still think good discussion can be made here, so I do bother a bit too highlight people's wrong perception here of "Just blockade China, the US/West can be fine and also rebuild their industry".
As for the rest you wrote, well I completely agree.
Moreover, I think the actual damage would be far, far worse in the west and when hyperinflation sets in, we could very well see civil war, especially in the US.
There will definitely be a hit in any kind of major decoupling like this, but RCEP area will probably increasingly become a huge powerhouse of its own. Australia and Japan might not like it, but they won't stop trading with China. And if we add in all the area where population growth is fastest, the world's economic power is shifting from NATO countries to rest of the world.
That's disrespectful to continental European countries. And there is a huge difference between Russia invading continental Europe and China having a conflict in Asia. The Europeans simply won't feel the same urgency.
China destroying all the bases in first island chain is a distinct possibility. Destroying military assets in Okinawa is one of the easier part of that. Whether you agree or not does not matter.
The question is whether or not it makes sense for them to attempt a landing after they significant degrade the military bases there.
It really hasn't. China can get all of the necessary resources from land and sea routes it can control. Any US effort to cut off China will also cut off japan and SK and other of its "allies"
Why don't you be a little more clear. What can US cut off China aside from just a decoupling with the West? What resources can US cut off from China?
"Factories are waiting for parts from China" was AND STILL is a common saying in the US and EU in past years.
"Factories are waiting for parts from the US" is LMAO. Never heard of that.
Fact is: iff tomorrow the US and EU are nuked The rest of the world will go on as usual. Without China, the rest of the world is fucked. Don't give me the "oh they will EVENTUALLY..." You can EVENTUALLY walk down from floor 100 to the ground without a scratch but if I kick you off floor 100 you will die. Or do you want to fast for 2 years? I will pay you back 4 years worth of food? Deal?
"Factories are waiting for parts from the US" is LMAO. Never heard of that.
Fact is: iff tomorrow the US and EU are nuked The rest of the world will go on as usual. Without China, the rest of the world is fucked. Don't give me the "oh they will EVENTUALLY..." You can EVENTUALLY walk down from floor 100 to the ground without a scratch but if I kick you off floor 100 you will die. Or do you want to fast for 2 years? I will pay you back 4 years worth of food? Deal?
It is the truth. Remember what happen to EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment?
Destorying all American bases in the first island chain is a “possibility“ only. PLA will have its hands full to keep them from re-opening, let alone landing at Ryukyu Islands. Remember the US will pull in its forces from other parts of the world and its bombers will constantly try to bomb PLA and civilian assets.
Do we really want to go through the long list of things that china might have done that eu didn't like?
Yes, there has been a lot of discussions on this topic and based on what patchwork has said, pla being able to take out all the operating bases west of pearl is very plausible and maybe even likely. And once that happens, US military simply won't be able to generate effective sorties to china for about a month and half.
So a good question is what pla does during that time?
Shoot down cruise missiles from American bombers fly from bases in Japan, Hawaii, CONUS and Australia.