As far as supplies go, yes. We, with our current auxiliary fleet, our current basing and facilities in theater, and our current platforms - are not able to sustain more than about 4,
maybe 5 CSGs (depending on composition and number of other forces) in the WESTPAC simultaneously. That's also a fairly generous estimate. For starters, we've only got 4 T-AOEs, of which 2 are in reserve; which means at most 4 (assuming no T-AOEs are sunk in the initial fighting, and all 4 are mission ready) CSGs will host their own supply vessels. However, these aren't enough to continuously supply a CSG operating at wartime tempo. CSGs in peacetime UNREP at least once per week as a rule of thumb, with general/rough averages being once every 3-5 days, even when the gas tank isn't close to empty. At a wartime tempo, this figure changes to every ~3 days @20kts if memory serves. Now, without Guam Naval Base as a forward resupply facility, the nearest intact, friendly ports are Pearl and the facilities in Australia. A T-AOE transiting @ ~20kts can get from the northern portion of that "most permissive operating area" zone from the graphic I posted a few days ago, to Pearl in about a week, and from the southern portion to Pearl in about 10 days. Takes about 8-9 days to get from the southern portion to Australia's nearest viable resupply bases. There are ports along Australia's northern coast (Darwin, Cairns), but those aren't really equipped to resupply large T-AOE/AO/AKEs. To get there from the northern portion requires 9-10 days. Now, a Supply-class T-AOE carries enough DFM for 3 to 4 Burkes or ~3 Ticos (or ~~ 3 Burkes 1 Tico... which, you may have noticed, is a common escort complement for CSGs lol), and enough JP-5 for ~4 days of wartime tempo flight ops. Thus, the shortest route - to pearl - is a 14 to 19 day round trip + a 24h "port" period (to reflect resupply time and other potentially delaying factors), so we'll call it 15-20 days. Thus, for a single wartime-tempo CSG in this sustainment environment, it would require ~3 to 5 T-AOEs. Again, note, we currently have a total of 4 (assuming none are sunk initially) with 2 being reserve ships.
Our other major replenishment vessels are the Henry J. Kaiser class T-AOs and Lewis and Clarke Class T-AKEs, of which we have 15 and 14 respectively. T-AKEs are dry cargo vessels, which are required less frequently than T-AOs, so they won't be our bottleneck. Kaiser Class T-AOs are less impressive than Supply-class T-AOEs, only able to refuel ~2 Burkes or 1 Burke + 1 Tico in a single go. Thus, each CSG requires ~6 to 10 T-AOs to ensure they are being replenished regularly. Thus, @ the 3 T-AOEs @20kts and 6 T-AO @20kts (very high for them lol) requirements, we would be capable of sustaining 3 CSGs at wartime tempo and ~22-25kts cruise speed. Should the CVWs operate at a bit lower of a tempo, operate closer to the 20-22kt region, the T-AOEs transit at their maximum 25kts, we can just barely scrape enough throughput for 4 CSGs. When surviving allied auxiliaries are included, we can afford a couple of 1+2 SAGs, and if European allies provide auxiliary support, we could afford 3 SAGs and have some breathing room, or another CSG, but just barely.
I'd give the CSBA's "Sustaining the Fight: Resilient Maritime Logistics for a New Era" a read if you're interested in learning more about our current shortfalls, and (the main focus) what a future force needs to look like to address them. You can find it
.
