Sure. But visibility is a variable.
PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC
- Thread starter SEAD
- Start date
Sure. But visibility is a variable.
There are only so much places on the First Island Chain that can host the missiles and their support tail
That's actually a lot of offensive real-estate.
On Japanese main islands, maybe. Can’t put troops on an island without a supply train
This is TWZ article describing the video of the mass drone attacks hypothesized by the think tank. I have to say that I was not too impressed with their knowledge of PLA. I did find it helpful that they tested out that communication between drones cannot be cut off completely. So, I will assume that's true.
There are some obvious issues here if you look at their study.
First of all, these cheap, yet capable drones don't exist. When they do go through a bidding process and get developed and produced, the costs could be a lot higher than what the people doing war games estimate. That tends to happen.
Secondly, they are probably basing Chinese defense system loosely upon what's on DOD report on China for 2021 but with just the major ticket items. So, US side has imaginary weapons that don't exist and Chinese side uses late 2010 weapon system.
Thirdly, where is the Chinese Air Force in this scenario? I'm really confused why you even need drones if the Chinese invading fleet does not have air cover.
Fourth, does China not have any EW in this scenario?
Fifth, Why would China not have a carrier on the East side of Taiwan to extend out its defense?
Let's say all of this is moot point and they come through and destroy a couple of landing ships like 071 and 072 + surface combatants like 052D/054A. And maybe they even destroy one SAM battery on the main land. So, now they are down 1000 drones, which probably would take several years to produce, PLA actually start operating its air force that has been strangely absent all along and move more aircraft and ships and missile units into this area? This has done nothing to stop China's air superiority over Taiwan or even neutralized the missile strike dangers to the first chain islands.
There are some obvious issues here if you look at their study.
First of all, these cheap, yet capable drones don't exist. When they do go through a bidding process and get developed and produced, the costs could be a lot higher than what the people doing war games estimate. That tends to happen.
Secondly, they are probably basing Chinese defense system loosely upon what's on DOD report on China for 2021 but with just the major ticket items. So, US side has imaginary weapons that don't exist and Chinese side uses late 2010 weapon system.
Thirdly, where is the Chinese Air Force in this scenario? I'm really confused why you even need drones if the Chinese invading fleet does not have air cover.
Fourth, does China not have any EW in this scenario?
Fifth, Why would China not have a carrier on the East side of Taiwan to extend out its defense?
Let's say all of this is moot point and they come through and destroy a couple of landing ships like 071 and 072 + surface combatants like 052D/054A. And maybe they even destroy one SAM battery on the main land. So, now they are down 1000 drones, which probably would take several years to produce, PLA actually start operating its air force that has been strangely absent all along and move more aircraft and ships and missile units into this area? This has done nothing to stop China's air superiority over Taiwan or even neutralized the missile strike dangers to the first chain islands.
Stockpiles for a 1st strike can be built up over time in all those sites. This has already been discussed before.
All those temperature controlled warehouses pop up on uninhabited islands and no one notices? Where do they get the power from anyways?
A few more articles on this topic, since this is a very seriously followed subject for USAF commanders in the region.
I'm not sure why they say Guam is 2500nm from mainland, when it's 3000 km. My assumption along is that if PLAN moves a carrier group to the East of Taiwan, LACMs from 055s can hit Guam. Keep in mind that Guam will likely have both THAAD and Patriot missiles. So, it's a very good target. Chinese nuclear arsenal is more of a deterrent when THAAD deployed around Pacific region get used up early on in a possible war defending against IRBM.
The entire USAF philosophy facing Chinese missiles is ACE
imo, the most relevant one is Tinian. The US air bases in Japan are a lot easier to target that the ones around Guam due to distance. Taking out the bases in Guam basically takes a lot of refueling aircraft out of the picture, which also takes USAF out of the conflict. Therefore, having the capability to hit Guam and other possibly runways in North Marianna Islands is pretty important.
Keep in mind that carrier groups can't keep operating forever by themselves, they need to be replenished on fuel, aviation fuel and weapons. The original refueling ship along with CSG maybe last at a week before they run out of fuel. If you make it impossible for replenishment ship to come in from Guam, supply line gets a lot harder to be maintained.
The other one to watch out is Wake Islands. Again, there is THAAD battery there. It is 4700 km from China (or up to 5000 km if you want to avoid flying over Ryuku). This is actually one of those things where if you can send out a fleet of H-6K escorted by J-16/20s, you could launch a few hypersonic and a lot more subsonic LACMs against Wake. I mean, you can see US military knowing how important Wake is in any combat scenario.
I would be shocked if PLAAF have not mapped out possible plans of attack there. If we get to a point where there have H-20s, this might be the type of scenario that would be perfect for H-20. It would be right at the edge of engagement envelope for H-20, where it can fly like 10t of payload over, drop them and then fly back to close to China where it can get refueled in the air close to Chinese air space. Given its small size, I would expect Wake to be an order of magnitude less well defended than Guam.
I'm not sure why they say Guam is 2500nm from mainland, when it's 3000 km. My assumption along is that if PLAN moves a carrier group to the East of Taiwan, LACMs from 055s can hit Guam. Keep in mind that Guam will likely have both THAAD and Patriot missiles. So, it's a very good target. Chinese nuclear arsenal is more of a deterrent when THAAD deployed around Pacific region get used up early on in a possible war defending against IRBM.
Make a note here of the concerns facing Wilsbach. I don't know what the eventual VLS LACM will look like, but it will ideally be at least as stealthy as YJ-18, hopefully more. If they don't have this type of LACM in large numbers, they probably are not ready for a war over Taiwan. The technology isn't that hard, but we just haven't seen it deployed anywhere.
The entire USAF philosophy facing Chinese missiles is ACE
imo, the most relevant one is Tinian. The US air bases in Japan are a lot easier to target that the ones around Guam due to distance. Taking out the bases in Guam basically takes a lot of refueling aircraft out of the picture, which also takes USAF out of the conflict. Therefore, having the capability to hit Guam and other possibly runways in North Marianna Islands is pretty important.
Keep in mind that carrier groups can't keep operating forever by themselves, they need to be replenished on fuel, aviation fuel and weapons. The original refueling ship along with CSG maybe last at a week before they run out of fuel. If you make it impossible for replenishment ship to come in from Guam, supply line gets a lot harder to be maintained.
The other one to watch out is Wake Islands. Again, there is THAAD battery there. It is 4700 km from China (or up to 5000 km if you want to avoid flying over Ryuku). This is actually one of those things where if you can send out a fleet of H-6K escorted by J-16/20s, you could launch a few hypersonic and a lot more subsonic LACMs against Wake. I mean, you can see US military knowing how important Wake is in any combat scenario.
I would be shocked if PLAAF have not mapped out possible plans of attack there. If we get to a point where there have H-20s, this might be the type of scenario that would be perfect for H-20. It would be right at the edge of engagement envelope for H-20, where it can fly like 10t of payload over, drop them and then fly back to close to China where it can get refueled in the air close to Chinese air space. Given its small size, I would expect Wake to be an order of magnitude less well defended than Guam.
Who told you it's just "uninhabited islands"? There's like 4 sites in the Philippines alone, plus Okinawa, all within 1000km of the mainland. And then there's Taiwan, which has its own CMs/BMs which would likely be active.
Philippines has not agreed to host American weapons. Taiwan hardly has any offensive weapons that worth a damn. Selling land attack missiles (cruise and ballistic) to Taiwan is a red line for mainland. How many missiles can realistically be launched from Okinawa?