PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC

AndrewS said:

If we're talking about stationing J-36 on Iwo Jima, realistically this is still a bare minimum of 7 years into the future, probably more like 10 years.

So in 2035, there could be:

a) In excess of 100 J-36
b) 6? Chinese aircraft carriers. That assumes Chinese aircraft carrier production increases to twice the American procurement rate, just like we've already seen in the other categories of naval warships

In such a scenario, I think the force balance shifts decidedly in China's favour around the Second Island Chain, so that Iwo Jima could be survivable. Then we would see Chinese naval and air forces operating in front of Iwo Jima.

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I don't think you understand my comment about "stationing". I'm saying this will allow J-36 to operate for longer period in between 1IC & 2IC through refueling. Having refueling capabilities there is quite valuable, since that would allow them to target and put EW pressure on US CSGs as soon as they get close to 2IC.

AndrewS said:

Missions 6000km away are difficult, but if the US military don't have access to bases in the Second Island Chain or Australia, what else are they supposed to do?

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Why would they not have access to Australia? Pretty much anywhere is closer than attacking Iwo Jima from Hawaii.

America has 1 week worth of munitions for high end conflict as per several studies.

It is 4800km from Anchorage to Heilongjiang and 5900km to Shenyang. Do you think it makes more sense to attack production facilities or J-20 bases inside China or island in the middle of Pacific Ocean?

AndrewS said:

Just give up? Or conduct those long, difficult missions from Hawaii as often as possible.

If you have US aircraft carriers at a distance of 1500km from Iwo Jima, then those tankers should be able to operate safely to a distance of 1500km. The tankers will refuel the bombers and then head back. With this operational profile, the bombers should be fine.

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the carriers won't be ready until about 40 days after start of conflict. And those ships are needed to be together to actually fight a little closer to Taiwan.

AndrewS said:

B-2 availability will be very limited, yes. Hence my estimate of a maximum salvo size of 200.
Plus the bombers don't necessarily have to be B-2s. B-1s or B-52s should be workable as well, given that they will have an accompanying fighter escort and the bombers only have to reach 900km from Iwo Jima.

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What accompany fighter escort? Do you think B-52s suddenly become invisible because there happens to be a couple of rhinos next to them?

AndrewS said:

So your USN contacts are saying that the USAF can't operate bombers and tankers from Hawaii, given some prep??

If so, that sounds unbelievable.

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Read what I wrote about 28 missiles from Rhinos per carrier. Like seriously, it feels waste of my time to argue with you.

AndrewS said:

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On the feasibility of Hawaii bomber missions, assuming a 900km JASSM range, the round-trip distances are about:

10600km Hawaii to Iwo Jima
14600km+ Hawaii to China and the Taiwan Straits

Theoretically, the B-2 and B-52 could do Hawaii to Iwo Jima without any tankers.
Although in practice, they would have some tanker support.

But from Hawaii to China, these missions are an additional 4000km+.
This would require daisy chains of tankers refueling tankers, which isn't really feasible.



I agree that Iwo Jima would be useful.
But only if it is defensible, which I don't see until China has enough long-range power projection capability.




As Patch himself said, he doesn't consider politics in his scenarios.
Nor how China could expand any conflict to potentially the Middle East or Europe.
These are partly political decisions.

For example, suppose there was a China-US war tomorrow and the USAF started violating Malaysian/Indonesian airspace with bomber missions from Darin and Diego Garcia, and turning those countries into warzones.

I wouldn't be surprised if people started burning American flags in the streets with the government tacitly approving...

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I think it would be helpful if you read people like him more and have less of your own opinions.

At this point, it seems to me entirely unproductive to be debating you more on this, so I'm not responding to you anymore on this.

tphuang said:

I'm really curious what is actually in PLAN's war-planning for westpac scenario, but it's interesting to see them converge around Iwo Jima recently. Hence my proposal. It is entirely possible that taking a place like this in the first week doesn't bring enough benefit to justify the cost of trying to set up a base there. Just as likely, it could enable them to station a couple of J-36s out there and operate further into Pacific Ocean.

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Iwo Jima or even Guam itself can be target for invasion, but i think if PLA is considering capturing any real estate other than TW, Okinawa/Amami/Miyako will probably come first, which will help PLA to sanitize their rear position and set up forward base before further projecting power into westpac. In that sense i can hardly see Iwo Jima fall in the first week.
In fact i think PLA will first focus on suppressing air/naval power around the Japanese islands in the first maybe 3~6 months of the conflict before they considering capturing Ryukyu, which is a high risk operation in itself and need full air/sea dominance to begin with.

so maybe the war plan you mentioned could look like this:
1st step: completely disable the Japanese islands's function as forward base for the US, while suppress any capability on TW island that may disrupt PLA operation
2nd step: capture Okinawa/Amami/Miyako, effectively make East China Sea and Yellow Sea as China lakes
3rd step: if by this time the US/JP side has not yet sued for peace, consider to further capture Iwo Jima or even Guam itself - at which point i think PLAN carrier fleet will be put into action. For step 1/2, i can hardly see much use for them.
4th step: force a unconditional surrender from TW without invasion, which will be depicted in history book as a "peaceful unification", similar to Peking

any thoughts?

the recent Israeli-Iranian conflict help me to really understand what Patch and Rick have been saying on the overwhelming advantage of first strike in the air-naval battle. Think if the US pulled off a first strike, and they managed to obliterate the entire PLARF, what the situation will look like? and it could be much worse than that, all airbases where J20 operate could be hit and PLAAF could lose majority of counter-air capability over night.

Of course it will be much more difficult to pull that off against PLA. I find it puzzling how Iran did not react after hundreds of aircraft took off and fly over 1000km before hitting them, which i think will take at least 2 hours??!

Maybe Russia with its over the horizon radar or China with its recon satellite network can detect such an operation beforehand but not Iran. At best they would know when their border radar sites were hit. But you also have to remember Israel struck at night time before Muslim prayer day. I doubt a lot of people in Iran were active to detect and react to the attack.

gelgoog said:

Maybe Russia with its over the horizon radar or China with its recon satellite network can detect such an operation beforehand but not Iran. At best they would know when their border radar sites were hit. But you also have to remember Israel struck at night time before Muslim prayer day. I doubt a lot of people in Iran were active to detect and react to the attack.

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just place some observers with MkI eyeball around key airbases, it is the least they can do

caohailiang said:

the recent Israeli-Iranian conflict help me to really understand what Patch and Rick have been saying on the overwhelming advantage of first strike in the air-naval battle. Think if the US pulled off a first strike, and they managed to obliterate the entire PLARF, what the situation will look like? and it could be much worse than that, all airbases where J20 operate could be hit and PLAAF could lose majority of counter-air capability over night.

Of course it will be much more difficult to pull that off against PLA. I find it puzzling how Iran did not react after hundreds of aircraft took off and fly over 1000km before hitting them, which i think will take at least 2 hours??!

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With what? Thoughts and prayers?

Even pro-US youtubers recognize that US homeland isn't secure during US-China conflict

I dont know. But in order for china to strike guam without any problem, they have to solve taiwan, japan and philliphine first. This is important. Because as long as japan and pinoy still at us hand, china mainland wont be secured. Thus it is hard to procure more warship during the war time. As us can use japan, taiwan and pinoy land as their military stage to strike china industrial zone

China mission to guam can only be done with missiles to disturb american foot on the campaign area. Or by sending subs to disturb us logistic ships from us mainland to japan and philliphine.

The situation can be better if china can find allies that can act as the counterbalance to phillipine and japan. To give both countries a pause before they can become the meat shield to weaken pla.

For this i think china alliance with russia is critical. Because if china can use russia asset like sea base in vladivostok area? They can expose japan eastern sea. Or indonesia to expose the east side of pinoy island. So it would complicated us logistic flow to japan, taiwan and phillipine.

Or else china should not explode the political situation in west pac because they dont have advantage over us and allies there. If i china i choose middle east instead for my warzone.
Because i can make sure that my (china) industry zone dont get any trouble. Plus to force us military to commit their asset in ME for prolonged time

Well that base on the logic of wei qi chess that i love to play

Brainsuker said:

I dont know. But in order for china to strike guam without any problem, they have to solve taiwan, japan and philliphine first. This is important. Because as long as japan and pinoy still at us hand, china mainland wont be secured. Thus it is hard to procure more warship during the war time. As us can use japan, taiwan and pinoy land as their military stage to strike china industrial zone

China mission to guam can only be done with missiles to disturb american foot on the campaign area. Or by sending subs to disturb us logistic ships from us mainland to japan and philliphine.

The situation can be better if china can find allies that can act as the counterbalance to phillipine and japan. To give both countries a pause before they can become the meat shield to weaken pla.

For this i think china alliance with russia is critical. Because if china can use russia asset like sea base in vladivostok area? They can expose japan eastern sea. Or indonesia to expose the east side of pinoy island. So it would complicated us logistic flow to japan, taiwan and phillipine.

Or else china should not explode the political situation in west pac because they dont have advantage over us and allies there. If i china i choose middle east instead for my warzone.
Because i can make sure that my (china) industry zone dont get any trouble.

Well that base on the logic of wei qi chess that i love to play

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The key is to cutoff supplies from US mainland to it's Asian outposts

Those US bases in Asia，whether it's Guam Okinawa or Philippine，they are all located on a small island. They have limited stockpile of fuel/ammunition，Thus requires constant supply from outside to keep it operational.

China could use firstly use saturation attack, to deplete all SAM units on US bases. I don't know the exact number of SAM they have，but my guess is that 1000 missile is enough to force them burn all interceptors they have on the island. Then China uses long range missiles to blockade Guam/Okinawa/Philippine，shoot any replenishment ships come close those island

After that those places will cease to function as US outposts against China

As for Taiwan，firstly use massive firepower to deplete Taiwanese SAM. After securing air superiority，China could use fighters and bombers to blockade Taiwan

The issue is less with invading Taiwan and more about dealing with the repercussions of doing it.