PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC
- Thread starter SEAD
- Start date
alright since we know the 2 carriers are in west pacific and venturing farther than they have before as we can see here and performing joint exercise
we also know from this that they have quite the fleet in that area between 1st and 2nd island chain right now
From yesterday, we know CV-16 is to the West from Iwo Jima and CV-17 is to the East of Iwo Jima
You can see 硫磺岛 in there. This brings the question of whether or not they have plans to take Iwo Jima in a Westpac conflict
there is currently an air base with air port on that island, which is what makes it attractive
you can read more about the base here
It is about 1200km from Tokyo, 1300km from Guam and 2500km from wake islands
Taking Iwo Jima seems like a far easier and painless task than taking Guam or any other Japanese island. It would give them a much farther forward operating base than other options I can think of.
we also know from this that they have quite the fleet in that area between 1st and 2nd island chain right now
CV-16, CV-17 STOBAR carrier thread (001/Liaoning, 002/Shandong)
Hmm? No, Shandong has went through the 1IC many times. The first was April 2023. Also, it's worth noting the massive number of ships in WESTPAC right now. We have both carriers, four 055s, four 052Ds, six 054As, and three replenishment ships. Ah, my bad. Post corrected.
www.sinodefenceforum.com
From yesterday, we know CV-16 is to the West from Iwo Jima and CV-17 is to the East of Iwo Jima
You can see 硫磺岛 in there. This brings the question of whether or not they have plans to take Iwo Jima in a Westpac conflict
there is currently an air base with air port on that island, which is what makes it attractive
you can read more about the base here
Seems like no civilian population there.
It is about 1200km from Tokyo, 1300km from Guam and 2500km from wake islands
Taking Iwo Jima seems like a far easier and painless task than taking Guam or any other Japanese island. It would give them a much farther forward operating base than other options I can think of.
Uh, taking Iwo Jima was a complete b1tch of a job in 1945 and unlikely to be any easier now.
how many Japanese troops do you think were there in 1945 and how many do you think are there now?
How many do you think would be there in the event of the HIC to which this thread pertains?
plawolf
Lieutenant General
They can take it, keeping it will be harder with the distance and logistics required. The PLAN will need to build up to it by first taking, or at a minimum, neutralising all the small islands west of it, chief of which would be Okinawa.
To try to take Iwo Jima without having Okinawa first is just asking for trouble, so it will not be an immediate target, probably not even phase 2 or 3.
The main rational for taking Iwo Jima is if Japan and America just will not quit after China was retaken Taiwan and is continuing the war. In which case China will be forced to pivot to seeking to knock Japan out of the war. Iwo Jima would be a useful logistical support and staging ground for interdiction missions to cut Japanese sea based lines of communication to the US to that end.
they have 350 troops in there based on wiki. And it takes time to build up accommodation for more military personnels. Why would PLA allow Japan to resupply it in the event of a conflict.
Isn't it obvious they would've neutralized Okinawa and done enough damage to Japan main islands' military based by this point?
you are always going to destroy the military bases in 1IC first.
Japan is in very weak position by then and capturing Iwo Jima would allow China to enforce blockade of Japan and South Korea.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
In which case the PLAN won’t just be relying on carrier strike groups to take Iwo Jima, a significant, if not the majority of logistics and fire support will be coming from the newly captured and repaired former Japanese islands and bases themselves. Aka allied island hopping tactics from WWII.
It is 1365 km from Okinawa to Iwo Jima and a lot more people and soldier on the islands. Sure, you can capture the island, but it will use more resources and won't help capturing island further to the East all that much. Iwo Jima is just a lightly defended island right now.
there may be strategic reasons to capture Iwo Jima sooner (soon after you neutralize 1IC bases and 7th fleet).
The question of whether Iwo Jima is a good target for the PLA is answered by the kind of conflict that will break out in the Western Pacific. The only plausible scenario for a war there is going to be the over the Taiwan question. As of now, the PLA's goal is to convince the US and its allies to stay out of the fight altogether, thereby isolating Taiwan and defeating it at leisure. Currently, this strategy seems to be working as South Korea has basically declared neutrality in such a conflict, and even the US seemingly is moving forces from the first island chain to the second island chain.
To my knowledge, Japan has not spoken specifically about defending Taiwan recently, but I think that their overall military posture is pretty clear. While there are Japanese hawks who talk up a big game, Japan's government isn't stupid, and they know that the JMSDF and JASDF are hopelessly outclassed and that this balance of power is looking more and more bleak. It's one of the reasons why they're desperate to get GCAP online by 3025 (a date that now seems impossible). Given the current conditions, Japan has to know that they're more and more likely to lose a war so I can only imagine that they're going to sit it out. And if Japan is neutral to a conflict, there's no way that the PLA will provoke them by taking Iwo Jima.
That said, we can still imagine a Taiwan scenario where the US and Japan are belligerents, and they lose badly enough that the PLA has an opportunity to take Iwo Jima. In such a situation what would PLA's strategic situation be? I think that China's imperative in such a situation is to go for a peace settlement as soon as possible. Once Taiwan is in Chinese hands, I don't think that China will have all that many more territorial ambitions so a quick peace will the ideal outcome.
Moreover, capturing Iwo Jima plays against China's inherent advantage in the Western Pacific. Right now the reason why the US is unlikely to win a war is because Taiwan is super far from the US. Most of the USAF doesn't have good basing in the first island chain so most of the air power has to come from the USN. But even the USN can only field a couple of carriers into the fight, and their carrier battlegroups are ridiculously vulnerable as they approach Chinese waters. And this is all part of the PLA's strategy: to draw the Seventh Fleet into range of China's weapons so they can be slaughtered. This can't happen all the way out at Iwo Jima so it just doesn't seem like a good idea.
To my knowledge, Japan has not spoken specifically about defending Taiwan recently, but I think that their overall military posture is pretty clear. While there are Japanese hawks who talk up a big game, Japan's government isn't stupid, and they know that the JMSDF and JASDF are hopelessly outclassed and that this balance of power is looking more and more bleak. It's one of the reasons why they're desperate to get GCAP online by 3025 (a date that now seems impossible). Given the current conditions, Japan has to know that they're more and more likely to lose a war so I can only imagine that they're going to sit it out. And if Japan is neutral to a conflict, there's no way that the PLA will provoke them by taking Iwo Jima.
That said, we can still imagine a Taiwan scenario where the US and Japan are belligerents, and they lose badly enough that the PLA has an opportunity to take Iwo Jima. In such a situation what would PLA's strategic situation be? I think that China's imperative in such a situation is to go for a peace settlement as soon as possible. Once Taiwan is in Chinese hands, I don't think that China will have all that many more territorial ambitions so a quick peace will the ideal outcome.
Moreover, capturing Iwo Jima plays against China's inherent advantage in the Western Pacific. Right now the reason why the US is unlikely to win a war is because Taiwan is super far from the US. Most of the USAF doesn't have good basing in the first island chain so most of the air power has to come from the USN. But even the USN can only field a couple of carriers into the fight, and their carrier battlegroups are ridiculously vulnerable as they approach Chinese waters. And this is all part of the PLA's strategy: to draw the Seventh Fleet into range of China's weapons so they can be slaughtered. This can't happen all the way out at Iwo Jima so it just doesn't seem like a good idea.