PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC

ZeEa5KPul said:

It's not just what he wrote here, but an impression I get from reading his body of work here and on Reddit. It's a consistent theme I've noticed; the passage you quoted just recalled it.

The "rabbit out of a hat" is my way of putting it (with some embellishment), but what I got from reading what he wrote when he was active in the past is that the balance of power could shift in the US's favor in the 2030s from a present/near future nadir, as opposed to continuing to erode (or indeed face accelerated erosion) as is currently happening.

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My advice for you is to try to take his writing in a way that could conceivably be the most fairly charitable from his perspective and conceivably be the least fairly charitable from your own perspective.

Ultimately this discussion is not being held with parity in exposure to information or access to said information, so challenging his judgement or interpretation of information should only occur if there's something particularly doubtful or strange beyond reasonable explanations.

ZeEa5KPul said:

I'll cop to more than my fair share of jingoistic hubris and say that I heavily discount the possibility even if the US were to summon up Herculean levels of commitment. A lot has been made of the Chinese shipbuilding capacity being ~230x the US one, and even taking all the requisite grains of salt and ignoring the media hysterics, there is just no way for the US to overcome that kind of deficit in any conceivable timeframe if an appreciable fraction of that capacity were used militarily.

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I disagree with that, and I agree with Patch wrote tbh.

Don't see red too much simply at the idea that the US may be able to substantially improve its westpac position or even regain some advantages in the region.
The fact that the PRC may in turn be able to hypothetically counter a hypothetical US ability to improve its westpac position (which was already described as basically institutionally and sociopolitically low in likelihood) is inconsequential -- it is a hypothetical multiplied by a hypothetical, so why even bother?

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ZeEa5KPul said:

No offense intended, I just wanted to know if it's as bad as it looks from the public reporting. There have been senators quoted saying things like "worst telecom hack in our nation’s history — by far"

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Given that a large part of their job is theatrical, I wanted to know (without revealing anything that would get anyone in trouble, of course) how seriously what Warner and his like say about it should be taken.

Patch, if this is too sensitive, feel free to dismiss it with a "no comment."

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I know why you'd want to ask, I'm more surprised at the fact you actually chose to ask.
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Blitzo said:

Ultimately this discussion is not being held with parity in exposure to information or access to said information, so challenging his judgement or interpretation of information should only occur if there's something particularly doubtful or strange beyond reasonable explanations.

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I'm very cognizant of that, which is why I was hesitant to bring this up before now (it's an idea I've had for some time). He has subject matter expertise and access to information I couldn't dream of, but looking at the big picture at a high level, there are features that no amount of granular detail can overcome. For example:

• UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) projects that by 2030, China will have 45% of global manufacturing. This is an absolutely insane level of concentration unseen since the immediate aftermath of WWII when the industrialized world outside the US was destroyed by the war.
• The International Federation of Robotics reported that China installed more industrial robots in 2024 than the rest of the world combined, and now has the third highest robot density on the planet behind Korea and Singapore.
• China's huge advances industrial sectors like semiconductors (especially power and RF electronics and advanced materials like GaN (now a commodity), Ga2O3, SiC, synthetic diamond, etc.) renewable energy, electric vehicles, batteries, etc. and what that implies about China's future strategic position and military capabilities.
• The aforementioned shipbuilding capacity.

It continues in this vein.

I don't think the standard for publicly stating "Hey, Patch, I disagree with you on this" should be "strange beyond reasonable explanations". I think he sees cause for celebration in some recent US programs like the B-21, but I don't think he sees (the temerity, I know) just how much China's own position is improving and how fast.

Lastly, we should also remember that the level of access and exposure to American information is very different from the access and exposure to Chinese information, just by the nature of the game.

Blitzo said:

I know why you'd want to ask, I'm more surprised at the fact you actually chose to ask.

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I genuinely don't see anything inappropriate or disrespectful in my question, and once I again I'll reiterate that I have no problem being told "nothing to say" and to leave it at that.

I write this as a fellow forum user rather than as a moderator: the fact that this discussion is being framed as a genuine debate is rather irritating.

If you know of the history of the interactions of the relevant individuals on SDF in the past, then you know what I refer to.



I have nothing else to add and I am done with this conversation strand.