There won't be nukes over a very peripheral and essentially civilian uninhabited area.
If that's the logic, US would never attempt anything with Taiwan either, because invading any part of China bigger than a SCS island = immediate nukes?
PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC
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If that's the logic, US would never attempt anything with Taiwan either, because invading any part of China bigger than a SCS island = immediate nukes?
The point of smashing everything on the First Island Chain is to deny American forces bases for their tankers and supply depots. If Japan, South Korea and Philippines deny American access to their territories, then there is no need to take them out.
You seriously think Japan will give up Ryukyu Islands willingly without force?
I'm really not sure what our plan for 1IC bases is. They're going to be giant craters the minute US decides to intervene in any Taiwan scenario. Besides packing up and abandoning them, what else is there to do really? Operating those bases would require defending them, and the fires mismatch is so enormous, it really makes me question what the point of defending those bases even is.
If anything, reducing presence on those bases and transforming them into "tripwires" would make more sense. Transfer all assets to Yokosuka and Guam should realistically be the medium-term goal.
If anything, reducing presence on those bases and transforming them into "tripwires" would make more sense. Transfer all assets to Yokosuka and Guam should realistically be the medium-term goal.
Americans made the stupid mistake of staking their unspoken security guarantees to Ukraine and Taiwan. It can’t back down doing nothing without losing its credibility, which its hegemony depends on.
Yes it can. We'll lose some face, but it's better to lose face than to lose a war.
The US should have started to massively transfer USAF assets to Japan, Guam and Hawaii starting with Obama's pivot to the Pacific. This should have been accompanied by CSGs getting homeported to Hawaii, the expansion of the sealift command and major investments to air defense and BMs. Overall navy and army budgets should have been cut in favor of the air force. And of course, small wars in the Middle East should have been stopped earlier.
If the US had done these China would have it hard today. It is already too late now. The US could still do these and they would probably work better than building more Burkes, but China would be able to react by shifting its own procurement patterns and the technological difference has mostly disappeared.
What they really should have done is preemptive war before 2019, followed by trade embargo. Nothing else can really change the trajectory
Not so fast. They could always pull a
"Trump is a traitor and left Taiwan to China without firing a single shot"
"WargamesTM showed that we could annihilate the PLA but Trump betrayed everyone and switched sides! US allies, no need to worry though as after China got Taiwan, we sentenced Trump to death, and the new US president is now fully aligned to be against Chyna!!"
The narrative will just be: look China got Taiwan but we got Greenland, notice how Greenland is bigger than Taiwan! Also KMT has always been filled with spies and corruption, theyve never been our friend.
And honestly I'm not averse to China allowing it. It will improve China's position in Asia for "free" in the sense that US already owns Greenland with military bases, but China needs to clear out KMT traitors to put bases in Taiwan and be able to militarize the province in preparation for retaking Japan/Philippines/Indonesia (whether by force or heavy diplomatic pressure). A grand bargain letting China clear house in exchange for not raking US/nato as hard for a few years is ok.
How can other vassals know the new POTUS will not do it again?