PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC

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Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
SunlitZelkova said:
As much as the strategic advantage exists for seizing the Ryukyus I don't think it is a good idea (despite myself having argued in favor of it in a couple other posts- also against it in other posts).

The US can let Taiwan fall and back out, Taiwan is basically in the same state as Ukraine pre-2022. Invading Okinawa is like Russia invading the Baltics, or the Warsaw Pact invading Denmark. That is going to trigger nuclear use from the United States (assuming any US attempt to take back the Ryukyus fails).

As much as the US likes to talk about a years long war, they don't have the industrial base to do that, nor do they have the theory and cohesion to do so. Especially if say, a war starts in the year prior to a US presidential election, the US president will face self-pressure and pressure from his political party to not be the one who lost a war.

Real, traditional, thoroughly institutionally ingrained US strategic culture and thinking is about using tactical nuclear weapons once your conventional forces are destroyed. Not this "do the Long March back to Pearl Harbor and then try and fight a years long naval insurgency along China's SLOCs" crap that has come out of think tanks in recent years.
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There won't be nukes over a very peripheral and essentially civilian uninhabited area.

If that's the logic, US would never attempt anything with Taiwan either, because invading any part of China bigger than a SCS island = immediate nukes?
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
00CuriousObserver said:
I agree with kicking them out of WESTPAC as the endgame, but I very much disagree with smashing everything in 1IC. Like mentioned, it's too "decisive battle". We don't live in Patchwork's timeline (luckily) and this much escalation is not in PRC's interest

I honestly think Patch would give a different path if AR was to happen in 2035 instead.

The ideal route imo is take back Taiwan, normalize exercises around Japan and politically push for Ryukyu independence. Build up Scarborough Shoal, open up bases in Indonesia and certain Pacific islands, normalize naval exercises in the PH Sea and have the Philippines surrounded.

In a way, the unification is only the beginning.
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The point of smashing everything on the First Island Chain is to deny American forces bases for their tankers and supply depots. If Japan, South Korea and Philippines deny American access to their territories, then there is no need to take them out.
You seriously think Japan will give up Ryukyu Islands willingly without force?
 
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davidau

Senior Member
Registered Member
vincent said:
The point of smashing everything on the First Island Chain is to deny American forces bases for their tankers and supply depots. If Japan, South Korea and Philippines deny American access to their territories, then there is no need to take them out.
You seriously think Japan will give up Ryukyu Islands willingly without force?
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personally, i don't trust the japs
 
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HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
I'm really not sure what our plan for 1IC bases is. They're going to be giant craters the minute US decides to intervene in any Taiwan scenario. Besides packing up and abandoning them, what else is there to do really? Operating those bases would require defending them, and the fires mismatch is so enormous, it really makes me question what the point of defending those bases even is.

If anything, reducing presence on those bases and transforming them into "tripwires" would make more sense. Transfer all assets to Yokosuka and Guam should realistically be the medium-term goal.
 
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