PLA strategy in an Indian conflict

tphuang said:

And just how are you planning to do this? Attack India unprovoked? I cannot think of a worse decision to do than attacking a country with nuclear weapons unprovoked.

Isolate it economically? Well, they are running a giant manufacturing surplus against India. Why would it do that? The current China/India engagement is overwhelmingly in China's favor.

India is going to keep growing and become a super power in its own right. America is extremely stupid if it thinks India will follow its direction long term.

China going out of its way try to destroy India for just minor border skirmishes will backfire badly.

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No, not at all. Rather China ought to take a page from the American playbook: ban exports of dual use technology, prohibit Chinese investments in Indian infrastructure, periodically stage exercises on the Tibetan plateau, fund and train 'freedom fighters', create an alliance of partners that encircles India, station a CBG in the Indian Ocean, etc.

Bait India into overreacting. Force India into an arms races it cannot win. Remember we are talking about a country that domestically believes itself to be militarily much stronger than China.

tphuang said:

There is only one logical way to stay ahead of India. That will be to do what they've done for the past 20 years. Keep growing economically, militarily, technologically and socially. The gap in national power between China and India has never been larger. We are at a point where China can legitimately supply weapons to Pakistan that will overwhelm India. If you are worried about India militarily, supporting Pakistan with high quality exports is the best counter weight.

How would India be able to mount offensive against China if Pakistan gets FC-31s and GJ-11 (or similar UCAVs) + modern artilleries that would easily be able to destroy India air defense systems?

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Here is the thing. HAL and DRDO may look like a joke today, but twenty years ago who would have thought Chengdu the maker of knockoff MiG-21 can mass produce stealth fighters? Who would have thought the navy whose most advance warship was the 051C will pump out 055s? Would it not be a national security catastrophe for China if India is able to replicate what China did and control the Indian Ocean, threatening every BRI projects in its vicinity? If there are things China can do to avoid or diminish the likelihood of this dreadful possibility, shouldn't China do it? How about creating immediate security challenges so that India blow its budget on more overpriced Rafales now instead of long term investments into its domestic industry?

Jason_ said:

No, not at all. Rather China ought to take a page from the American playbook: ban exports of dual use technology, prohibit Chinese investments in Indian infrastructure, periodically stage exercises on the Tibetan plateau, fund and train 'freedom fighters', create an alliance of partners that encircles India, station a CBG in the Indian Ocean, etc.

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China aready creates and alliance of partners that encircles India's. It ha no reason to station a cbg I. Indian ocean when the aircraft and ships exported to pakistan can do just that. They already excerises on tibetan plateaus and frequently bring higher end gears there.

Banning high tech export would only make sense if India can't get them elsewhere. Its more like for India to by Chinese export than vice versa on security ground.

Jason_ said:

Bait India into overreacting. Force India into an arms races it cannot win. Remember we are talking about a country that domestically believes itself to be militarily much stronger than China.

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India already thinks it's in an arms race it cannot win.

Jason_ said:

Here is the thing. HAL and DRDO may look like a joke today, but twenty years ago who would have thought Chengdu the maker of knockoff MiG-21 can mass produce stealth fighters? Who would have thought the navy whose most advance warship was the 051C will pump out 055s? Would it not be a national security catastrophe for China if India is able to replicate what China did and control the Indian Ocean, threatening every BRI projects in its vicinity? If there are things China can do to avoid or diminish the likelihood of this dreadful possibility, shouldn't China do it? How about creating immediate security challenges so that India blow its budget on more overpriced Rafales now instead of long term investments into its domestic industry?

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What china has achieved in the past 20 years in military has most likely never been achieved before. With India's broken and inefficient procurement process, there is no reason to believe mca will end up in a better place than lca. What china has done is already pretty threatening to India. Do we really need to get bothered by desperate cries of a weaker nation?

Jason_ said:

Here is the thing. HAL and DRDO may look like a joke today, but twenty years ago who would have thought Chengdu the maker of knockoff MiG-21 can mass produce stealth fighters?

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Obviously, no one has a crystal ball and the usual caveats about underestimating an enemy apply, but what you're describing is highly unlikely for a whole host of reasons.

Jason_ said:

Would it not be a national security catastrophe for China if India is able to replicate what China did and control the Indian Ocean, threatening every BRI projects in its vicinity? If there are things China can do to avoid or diminish the likelihood of this dreadful possibility, shouldn't China do it?

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What specifically should China be doing that it currently isn't?

Topography of India:

Jason_ said:

Acc

According to Mearsheimer’s Offensive Realism school of international relations, now is exactly the time for China to use every means in its disposal to limit and contain India’s growth. If China delays, and wait until India grow to be a formidable power, it would be to late.

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Why should China need to do that when India is already committing seppuku?

Jason_ said:

Here is the thing. HAL and DRDO may look like a joke today, but twenty years ago who would have thought Chengdu the maker of knockoff MiG-21 can mass produce stealth fighters? Who would have thought the navy whose most advance warship was the 051C will pump out 055s? Would it not be a national security catastrophe for China if India is able to replicate what China did and control the Indian Ocean, threatening every BRI projects in its vicinity? If there are things China can do to avoid or diminish the likelihood of this dreadful possibility, shouldn't China do it? How about creating immediate security challenges so that India blow its budget on more overpriced Rafales now instead of long term investments into its domestic industry?

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China 20 years ago had all the hallmarks of an ascending military power: a booming economy and industrial base, an increasingly educated and vast pool of talent to draw from, and the political will to implement reforms. That being said, if you told anyone in 2002 where China was today, you'd likely be strapped to a chair and sent to the mental asylum. It's easy to extrapolate the trajectory of history in hindsight. China has, by every measure, smashed expectations of economic, industrial, technological, and military growth.

India today shows none of these hallmarks. Issues of caste, religion and bureaucracy continue to plague the country's development. If anything, these problems have only intensified under Modi and the nationalistic BJP. Until significant steps are taken to address these issues and improve its stock of human capital, India will not be the 'next China'. India in 20 years time will just be a slightly better version of India today.

dengyeye said:

China 20 years ago had all the hallmarks of an ascending military power: a booming economy and industrial base, an increasingly educated and vast pool of talent to draw from, and the political will to implement reforms. That being said, if you told anyone in 2002 where China was today, you'd likely be strapped to a chair and sent to the mental asylum. It's easy to extrapolate the trajectory of history in hindsight. China has, by every measure, smashed expectations of economic, industrial, technological, and military growth.

India today shows none of these hallmarks. Issues of caste, religion and bureaucracy continue to plague the country's development. If anything, these problems have only intensified under Modi and the nationalistic BJP. Until significant steps are taken to address these issues and improve its stock of human capital, India will not be the 'next China'. India in 20 years time will just be a slightly better version of India today.

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2001 was when the term BRICS was coined at Goldman Sachs.

So back then, it was already conceivable that China would become a comprehensive military power

dengyeye said:

China 20 years ago had all the hallmarks of an ascending military power: a booming economy and industrial base, an increasingly educated and vast pool of talent to draw from, and the political will to implement reforms. That being said, if you told anyone in 2002 where China was today, you'd likely be strapped to a chair and sent to the mental asylum. It's easy to extrapolate the trajectory of history in hindsight. China has, by every measure, smashed expectations of economic, industrial, technological, and military growth.

India today shows none of these hallmarks. Issues of caste, religion and bureaucracy continue to plague the country's development. If anything, these problems have only intensified under Modi and the nationalistic BJP. Until significant steps are taken to address these issues and improve its stock of human capital, India will not be the 'next China'. India in 20 years time will just be a slightly better version of India today.

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These are great points.
And let's also not forget that the huge east wind that aided China's ascent as an industrial power house, which was the fastest and largest ever in human history, was the US centric globalization which ended 10 years after the Great Financial Crisis.
The world is evolving from globalization of economies to regionalization with China, US, and EU centric trade blocks.
And India is not a part in any one of the three, while its economy and market is too small to be a pole by itself.

I don't get this thread intended topic. Should this be an Indian-China geopolitical discussion or purely for PLA (military) discussion regarding India, or both?

As you are the OP, @Abominable, can you clarify?

takwb said:

These are great points.
And let's also not forget that the huge east wind that aided China's ascent as an industrial power house, which was the fastest and largest ever in human history, was the US centric globalization which ended 10 years after the Great Financial Crisis.
The world is evolving from globalization of economies to regionalization with China, US, and EU centric trade blocks.
And India is not a part in any one of the three, while its economy and market is too small to be a pole by itself.

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Indeed, we're going back to bloc-based/regional trading like the ones we see in Cold war. I do think India will eventually find which bloc to settle in once it becomes more clear as majority of countries choose their sides and consolidate their trade.

I want to further add that we're going to go to a period of instability. Internal coups, power struggles and espionage will become place, and instability will become more of a regular occurrence than the last cold war, because of climate change and systems becoming more complex, requiring many different type of resources like rare earth metals, natural gas and minerals.

Countries may turn more "authoritarian", needing to monitor and control the population from revolting due to instability and discontent, and for possible subversive elements. The thing that scares me the most, is we might ended up reversing a lot of globalized systems like the Internet and scientific collaboration, shifting to more of a local and regional system.

We're living in interesting times, and I hope it doesn't descend to nuclear annihilation and total collapse.