PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

bobsagget

New Member
Registered Member
I am a fanatic with this ideology . I think infantry units should no longer be rifle centric but airburst and lmg centric .
If you have two men who can carry lmgs with optimised .22 cal ( think similar to a .224 valk round( desirable as it could suppress opposition out to 1.2km for negligible weight and recoil) in a tv style case they could easily carry 1000 plus rounds of ammo each .This could be agumented with a spot type robot carrying more ammo).
Thusly 2 /12 can pin down opposition while the rest can maneuver with 20-30mm airburst to hit point targets from 1km out .
If for whatever reason you need more ability to kill opposition in cover you could issue small loitering munitions .

Now why do i think this is the bees knees of war . Simple ukraine . Note what happens in most engagment videos the most crucial determining point of all fights is when units get pinned we have seen the videos of men too afraid to accurately return fire this is generally followed by said units getting hit with mortar, atgm or auto cannon fire killing them.
This is what must always be exploited .
i should add too for these aggressive ensure rapid target aquisition and situational awarness. Things like ivas and thermal fused day night agumented reality sights and goggles are a must, as they dramatically increase first time hit probability through detection and rapid iff which reduces trigger hesitation
 

JohnAppleseed

Just Hatched
Registered Member
China wasn't strong enough in 1997, whatever the rationale , unlike today.

Surprised nobody has mentioned something similar that happened in January 2021, right before Trump was to leave office.

Here is a summary of what allegedly occurred:
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"After the announcement of Kelly Knight Craft’s visit to Taiwan, the Chinese mainland protested strongly to the U.S. through diplomatic channels from Jan. 7 to 10, but to no avail, and “after consideration, Beijing’s top brass decided to respond strongly with military...On the 11th, the Chinese military told the U.S. Department of Defense through the U.S.-China hotline that Craft’s visit to Taiwan undermines China’s sovereignty and cannot be tolerated, and that when the U.S. plane approaches Taiwan, Chinese warplanes will also follow it into Taiwan airspace to declare China’s sovereignty over Taiwan, and that if blocked by Taiwan’s military planes, “we will not rule out the consequences of direct fire...The U.S. did not expect China to react so strongly and refused to communicate and compromise on this issue. The Pentagon has assessed that to ensure the arrival of Craft’s plane in Taiwan would require an escort of U.S. warplanes in Okinawa, but that would cause a risk of a military confrontation between the U.S. and China. If let the Taiwan warplanes escort, the situation would be even worse, there would be the risk of a firefight over the Taiwan Strait...Either a U.S.-China military standoff or a firefight between Taiwan and mainland China would be unacceptable to the United States. As a result, the Pentagon submitted its assessment to the State Department and strongly recommended that Kelly Knight Craft’s visit to Taiwan be canceled. Although then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was seriously dissatisfied, he was forced to cancel Craft’s visit to Taiwan. To avoid the perception that he was pressured by China to cancel the visit to Taiwan, Pompeo decided to cancel all State Department foreign visits, including Pompeo’s own plans to visit Europe, on the grounds of the transition of power."

The DIFFERENCE this time around is that a lot of these posturing and hypothetical threats / counter threats are being made PUBLICLY PRIOR to the trip, thus increasing the political costs for both sides in backing down. Not surprisingly, leaks in the media including the British Financial Times have further increased tensions.

Pelosi will need to come up with another excuse like with COVID. God help us.
I think Radio France International's Chinese version reported on this.
 

BoraTas

Major
Registered Member
unless they want an actual shooting war they can't prevent PLAAF from doing any of that.

and if they do the worst thing to do is concentrate multiple expensive assets within range of every antiship munition in the arsenal.
Quite obvious to people who actually read about these matters. If they are expecting China to shoot down the plane, putting a very small force (compared to the PLA) in a region where US forces are scarce but the PLA assets are literally everywhere is the worst decision. It is basically sending a CSG to its death for nothing. China would be deterred more if the US readied 4 CSGs in Hawaii, for example. Sending 2 - 4 fighters for escort is not good either. If China is bent on shooting the plane, 4 fighters will not deter it. In fact if China overflies Taiwan and escorts Pelosi's plane (this seems to be the course of action that hawks in the CPC are advocating for) despite the US presence, it will be a very public display of disregard China shows toward the US military presence.
 

Yommie

Junior Member
Registered Member
Quite obvious to people who actually read about these matters. If they are expecting China to shoot down the plane, putting a very small force (compared to the PLA) in a region where US forces are scarce but the PLA assets are literally everywhere is the worst decision. It is basically sending a CSG to its death for nothing. China would be deterred more if the US readied 4 CSGs in Hawaii, for example. Sending 2 - 4 fighters for escort is not good either. If China is bent on shooting the plane, 4 fighters will not deter it. In fact if China overflies Taiwan and escorts Pelosi's plane (this seems to be the course of action that hawks in the CPC are advocating for) despite the US presence, it will be a very public display of disregard China shows toward the US military presence.

Especially now the US is running low on ammo because of war in Ukraine. I hear the US is running low on artillery ammo which was sent to Ukraine. So bad time for the US to start a war with China.
 

supersnoop

Colonel
Registered Member
The more posts on this Pelosi visit, the more unlikely I see this visit happening. What would the US achieve with this visit? It’s just pointless posturing at the risk of a real war.

Even, if something happens and there is no war, there are still going to be economic consequences which will certainly spell the end of the Democratic Party in power for the next election.
 

JewPizza

Junior Member
Registered Member
Sun Tzu is way smarter than Xi. You cannot compare a world famous strategist with Xi.
The point is not that Xi Jinping is smarter than Sun Tzu, but that Xi Jinping is a modern-day Sun Tzu. Of course, I guess its silly to compare the two, but the point I'm trying to make is that I consider Xi Jinping to be the greatest statesman of the 21th centaury as of now(this could totally change of course).
Sun Tzu would arm Russia with thousands of HJ-12 missiles
Wouldn't doing this just provoke Europe and ruin relations with China. Pretty sure China wouldn't want that.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Sun Tzu would arm Russia with thousands of HJ-12 missiles.
China-EU relations has not deteriorated enough to the point of outright supplying Russia with thousands of missiles is more feasible than continuing relations with the EU.

Remember not long ago when China just ordered nearly 300 Airbus airliners?

China-EU trade and economic partnership is still very much present, and still expanding today (especially with the current energy crisis in Europe that are driving Europe-based factories elsewhere, including to China). Furthermore, the EU is still the largest trading partner of China, following ASEAN and the US.

Right now, China holds way more cards than both the EU and Russia. Don't throw them out so early.
 
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Yommie

Junior Member
Registered Member
China-EU relations has not deteriorated enough to the point of outright supplying Russia with thousands of missiles is more feasible than continuing relations with the EU.

Remember not long ago when China just ordered nearly 300 Airbus planes?

China-EU trade and economic partnership is still very much present, and still expanding today (especially with the energy crisis driving Europe-based factories to elsewhere, including to China). Furthermore, the EU is still the largest trading partner of China, following ASEAN and the US.

Right now, China holds way more cards than both the EU and Russia. Don't throw them out so early.

China has its own interests. China selling HJ-12 to Russia has nothing to do with EU. China also does not kowtow to anyone, not EU, not anyone.

EU is not particularly hostile to Russia. The most hostile to Russia are the US and the UK which feel their Anglo Saxon hegemony threatened.

Selling JF-17 to Argentina irks the UK due to territorial dispute between Argentina and the UK. Selling HJ-12 to Russia does not irk EU. There is no territorial dispute between EU and Russia.
 
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