PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

GiantCanofWater

Junior Member
Registered Member
Would RE/CM restrictions stop Japan though? It’s possible that restricting so much to them would only push them further to war and give them time to prepare to strike China. I think there should be physical threat included.

If a us china war starts, after the initial strike on US bases, China could give Japan one last chance to stay out of the war. But to do that it needs to build that massive stockpile. It’s hard to argue you wouldn’t be crushed under millions of drones confirmed to exist already. If they decide to continue the war, then response should be immediate and immense. I think the easiest and cheapest way to stop cheap drones from hitting you is by attacking the other side first.

However, I’m concerned if China doesn’t begin with massive comprehensive overwhelming fire because

1. it wants to stick with its “we’ll never fire the first shot” saying.
2. half asses the salvo for fear of escalating too far or not wanting to look barbaric on the world stage.
3. Think that sparing some of japans factories will show it mercy and have them surrender quickly.

It would incredibly stupid but not out of the question as Russia and America have done the same. It could end up losing factories and critical air assets by a wave of drones and missiles from Japan. China can rebuilt them but they take time and days matter in the beginning of war.
 
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Ringsword

Senior Member
Registered Member
Would RE/CM restrictions stop Japan though? It’s possible that restricting so much to them would only push them further to war and give them time to prepare to strike China. I think there should be physical threat included.

If a us china war starts, after the initial strike on US bases, China could give Japan one last chance to stay out of the war. But to do that it needs to build that massive stockpile. It’s hard to argue you wouldn’t be crushed under millions of drones confirmed to exist already. If they decide to continue the war, then response should be immediate and immense. I think the easiest and cheapest way to stop cheap drones from hitting you is by attacking the other side first.

However, I’m concerned if China doesn’t begin with massive comprehensive overwhelming fire because

1. it wants to stick with its “we’ll never fire the first shot” saying.
2. half asses the salvo for fear of escalating too far or not wanting to look barbaric on the world stage.
3. Think that sparing some of japans factories will show it mercy and have them surrender quickly.

It would incredibly stupid but not out of the question as Russia and America have done the same. It could end up losing factories and critical air assets by a wave of drones and missiles from Japan. China can rebuilt them but they take time and days matter in the beginning of war.
I was thinking the same thing-upon reading books like John Toland's excellent "The Rising Sun" where it states that the total oil embargo as well as scrap iron by America prompted Japan to strike at Pearl Harbour ;hoping for a surprise knockout blow-but neutered,constrained,aging Japan of today is nowhere near the confidence,power,independent polity/influence of its 1930's self,still as one of our members here have stated -and which I believe as well-USA will unleash their vassal attack dog Japan to bite China again and see what will happen.We can never underestimate events and them-never be Late Qing again.
 

siegecrossbow

Field Marshall
Staff member
Super Moderator
I was thinking the same thing-upon reading books like John Toland's excellent "The Rising Sun" where it states that the total oil embargo as well as scrap iron by America prompted Japan to strike at Pearl Harbour ;hoping for a surprise knockout blow-but neutered,constrained,aging Japan of today is nowhere near the confidence,power,independent polity/influence of its 1930's self,still as one of our members here have stated -and which I believe as well-USA will unleash their vassal attack dog Japan to bite China again and see what will happen.We can never underestimate events and them-never be Late Qing again.
I wouldn’t count them out.

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Nevermore

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China Has Completed Seabed Mapping of the Eastern Waters off Taiwan
On June 8, a Chinese maritime law enforcement task force dedicated to maritime traffic control arrived in the waters southeast of Taiwan. Tan Zhu noted that the task force proceeded eastward from waters near the eastern coast of Taiwan, heading further out to sea. Experts told Tan Zhu that recently, through coordinated efforts involving multiple departments—from the Coast Guard to local maritime bureaus, and from the East China Sea Navigation Safety Center to the East China Sea Rescue Bureau—a “near-shore governance” model has been established around Taiwan Island.
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GZDRefugee

Senior Member
Registered Member
Perhaps it actually means small FPVs?
Russia is at 5 million FPVs per year, and Ukraine is at 7 million FPVs per year.

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So the Chinese Army ordering just 1 million FPVs would be about 2? months of usage
That would be enough time for Chinese factories to ramp up to wartime production levels.
The bottleneck for light attack drones seems to be the engine which is about as sophisticated as a moped engine. China builds 70 million mopeds in a year.
 

tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Perhaps it actually means small FPVs?
Russia is at 5 million FPVs per year, and Ukraine is at 7 million FPVs per year.

---

So the Chinese Army ordering just 1 million FPVs would be about 2? months of usage
That would be enough time for Chinese factories to ramp up to wartime production levels.
China already produce more drones than world combine. I mean Those 12 million drones make by the Russian and the Ukrainians are made using Chinese parts. If there a war, the government can just snap two fingers and they could have 50 million drones per year.
 

GiantCanofWater

Junior Member
Registered Member
how quickly can factories be retooled to produce a mass number of drones and jets etc? I assume China doesn’t just have the factories always ready to produce that many since that would be a waste most of the time.
 
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