PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Neurosmith · 2026-01-30T01:20:36-0500

votran said:
finally a pro-china propagrandist actually understand the problem within PLA (or maybe entire china's society) ...instead of having the same goal as US gov ...lol
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Not going to comment on the whole Zhang situation, but pushing for an "early" Taiwan conflict is just about the most stupid thing the PLA brass could do. The military balance in the Pacific is gradually shifting in China's favor and having the time to build up industrial and military capacity is a crucial advantage that the Chinese leadership has realized for years.

It would actually be in the interest of the US and her allies to have China make a move on Taiwan at this point, as doing so would bleed China of her resources and personnel so as to cement the US' position as the unchallenged hegemon in the Pacific and ultimately the world. China's leadership realizes this, which is likely why there was such little reaction - military-wise - to clear provocations such as Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022.

As such, this little writeup from Zhao DaShuai sounds not like an official deduction of China's policy but rather the blogger's personal desires that are wishcast as the former.

Blitzo · 2026-01-30T01:29:03-0500

Neurosmith said:
Not going to comment on the whole Zhang situation, but pushing for an "early" Taiwan conflict is just about the most stupid thing the PLA brass could do. The military balance in the Pacific is gradually shifting in China's favor and having the time to build up industrial and military capacity is a crucial advantage that the Chinese leadership has realized for years.

It would actually be in the interest of the US and her allies to have China make a move on Taiwan at this point, as doing so would bleed China of her resources and personnel so as to cement the US' position as the unchallenged hegemon in the Pacific and ultimately the world. China's leadership realizes this, which is likely why there was such little reaction - military-wise - to clear provocations such as Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022.

As such, this little writeup from Zhao DaShuai sounds not like an official deduction of China's policy but rather the blogger's personal desires that are wishcast as the former.

votran said:
finally a pro-china propagrandist actually understand the problem within PLA (or maybe entire china's society) ...instead of having the same goal as US gov ...lol
View attachment 168877
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Zhao Dashuai is one of a type of user on twitter who like to convey their own geopolitical opinions as if it were common sense or official, and often without good understanding of PLA matters either.

I don't see why their opinions should be posted here anymore than any random's opinion on twitter, especially given their track record is basically just one of chest thumping.

siegecrossbow · 2026-01-30T06:55:05-0500

Neurosmith said:
Not going to comment on the whole Zhang situation, but pushing for an "early" Taiwan conflict is just about the most stupid thing the PLA brass could do. The military balance in the Pacific is gradually shifting in China's favor and having the time to build up industrial and military capacity is a crucial advantage that the Chinese leadership has realized for years.

It would actually be in the interest of the US and her allies to have China make a move on Taiwan at this point, as doing so would bleed China of her resources and personnel so as to cement the US' position as the unchallenged hegemon in the Pacific and ultimately the world. China's leadership realizes this, which is likely why there was such little reaction - military-wise - to clear provocations such as Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022.

As such, this little writeup from Zhao DaShuai sounds not like an official deduction of China's policy but rather the blogger's personal desires that are wishcast as the former.

It will be stupid for China to actively push the situation now — maybe. But it is far dumber to not prepare for potential flashpoints because dumbass politicians need a “win” to gain support. Look at what Japan did last November for instance. There is no telling whether Lai or his handlers would get desperate and just flip the board because power balance is tilting in China’s favor. We now live in an era where Alberta independence has tacit support from the U.S. government for heaven’s sake…

lockedemosthenes1 · 2026-01-30T07:11:30-0500

Neurosmith said:
Not going to comment on the whole Zhang situation, but pushing for an "early" Taiwan conflict is just about the most stupid thing the PLA brass could do. The military balance in the Pacific is gradually shifting in China's favor and having the time to build up industrial and military capacity is a crucial advantage that the Chinese leadership has realized for years.

It would actually be in the interest of the US and her allies to have China make a move on Taiwan at this point, as doing so would bleed China of her resources and personnel so as to cement the US' position as the unchallenged hegemon in the Pacific and ultimately the world. China's leadership realizes this, which is likely why there was such little reaction - military-wise - to clear provocations such as Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022.

As such, this little writeup from Zhao DaShuai sounds not like an official deduction of China's policy but rather the blogger's personal desires that are wishcast as the former.

I need to point out that just taking military affairs into consideration is not enough: The public's willingness to support a unification war is declining, and sentiments reminiscent of early 20th-century American isolationism are emerging. Moreover, if unification is delayed until military preparations are fully complete, new pretexts—such as insufficient energy readiness or economic unpreparedness—will inevitably be invoked to further obstruct action. Therefore, although launching a unification war now may not guarantee a success rate exceeding 75%, it would prevent the public from becoming entrenched in isolationist sentiment. Furthermore, Russia’s ongoing special military operation demonstrates that a unification war conducted over a prolonged period of 5 to 10 years, with casualties on the order of 300,000, is acceptable as well.

PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Neurosmith

Junior Member

Blitzo

General

siegecrossbow

Field Marshall

lockedemosthenes1

New Member