PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Dante80 said:

I wanted to ask about that.

My understanding is that the bridge is not approved from Taiwan's end. This means that they are literally building a bridge to nowhere?

Surely they will not be seizing the land on the other end to finish the bridge? Kinmen is controlled by Taiwan.

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It is true that Taiwan side did not approve this bridge project and that is obvious expectation.

However, this is deeper strategic move more than to actually connect the briadge between Xiamen and Jinmen. Its real effect is to earn the heart and mind of the people on Kinmen. It build up the desire and hope of Kinmen local people to rejoin with Mainland China. The county governor of Kinmen Chen Fu Hai on 2025 December 02 has explicitly said he and all the Kinmen people supports this project despite non-commitment and silence from Taipei.

If AR starts the people on Kinmen would likely not putting up any resistence, they might even assist PLA to take over the island. That is already one battle won before start of AR.

金门县长称民众百分百支持通桥，17公里厦金大桥已开工，两岸融合现突破​

2025-12-02 16:30发布于广东国际领域创作者
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11月28日，金门县长陈福海在议会上的一句表态引发热议。
他明确支持厦金大桥连接厦门翔安机场，称“金门乡亲没有一个不支持！”
这一表态不仅反映了金门民众对两岸基础设施联通的期待，也让金门成为两岸融合发展的焦点。
然而，在金门热议大桥建设的同时，民进党却抛出将核废料运至金门乌丘的提议，引发民众强烈反对。
一边是发展红利，一边是核废料包袱，金门的未来再次成为两岸关系博弈的重要节点。

厦金大桥的构想最早提出于1999年，但多年来因两岸关系等问题迟迟未能落实。
直到2023年9月，大陆发布两岸融合发展文件，明确提出加快推进与金门通电、通气、通桥。

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同年10月，厦金大桥厦门段正式开工建设。
这座大桥全长约17.3公里，其中从大嶝岛到金门段为4.5公里，采用双向六车道设计，时速可达100公里。

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大桥建成后，不仅将彻底改善金门长期以来的交通瓶颈，还能通过桥体管道实现水、电、燃气的同步输送。事实上，自2018年起，大陆已通过海底管道向金门供水，累计供水超4300万吨，占金门日常供水总量的八成以上。而此次大桥建设，被视为“共饮一江水”迈向“共走一座桥”的重要一步。金门民众对大桥的支持率极高。对金门而言，通桥不仅是经济发展的新希望，更是民生改善的迫切需求。

然而，就在金门上下热切期待大桥建设之时，民进党却抛出一项备受争议的提议——将核二、核三厂的核废料运至金门乌丘存放。
乌丘距离大陆仅17公里，基础设施薄弱，人口稀少。将高放射性核废料运至此地，不仅存在巨大的环境风险，还可能因地理位置敏感引发两岸紧张局势。更重要的是，金门长期以来在台湾的经济发展中处于边缘地位。金门民众普遍认为，台湾本岛在未给予金门对等利益的情况下，却试图将核废料存放于此，是一种牺牲边陲利益的行为。

这一提议引发了金门民众的强烈反对，许多人直言这是对金门人的极大不尊重。分析指出，民进党此举背后或有政治算计。一方面，借核废料议题制造两岸对立，转移内部执政压力；另一方面，可能意在逼迫国民党籍“立委”郑丽文表态，试图在核废料问题上牵制蓝营。

然而，这一操作不仅未能转移焦点，反而进一步激化了金门民众的不满情绪。与此同时，金门的问题也加剧了国民党内部的分裂。
今年11月26日，国民党中常委何鹰鹭因公开支持“和平统一”而被撤销党职。她在发言中质问党主席郑丽文：“统一喊不得，难道你要武吗？”

郑丽文自上任后，试图弱化“深蓝”标签，转而走中间路线，但这种模糊态度引发了党内挺统派的不满，也让民进党的攻击更具针对性。
九成民众支持通桥，表明人心所向不在口号，而在实实在在的生活改善。金门或许不会一夜之间“回归”，但在两岸融合发展的浪潮中，它正以自己的方式成为关键突破口，也为台湾其他县市提供了一个无法忽视的参照样本。

manqiangrexue said:

If war breaks out, we're going primal. There is no modern integrated economy and international money/trade, etc... In that case, China will have excess manufacturing capacity, which can be used towards wartime manufacturing and those consumption-driven economies will have excess demand with no stuff to live on or industrialize off of. They will be looting/panic-buying/empty shelves, massive disruptions to those economies while Chinese manufacturers will be wondering whether to use savings to pass the time or transition to making items for the military. In war time, real stuff, or the capacity to make real stuff is always an advantage to useless printed currency even though the customer holds considerable power in maritime.

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All you described and what others have said is accurate regarding the pain inflicted on the other side. Previously the US has always shied away from taking that primal step but if push comes to shove, it is western societies that can clamp down on social disintegration better than China because western leaders do not care for or fear the common person. Western societies are the real police states. China just has better social cohesion overall and conformity. Beyond a certain threshold of suffering, Chinese people will not tolerate it and will harm the nation. There are plenty of Chinese diaspora who hold these views and are too proud to express their unwillingness to make sacrifices.

I'm sure many of the pro-China Chinese people on this forum are nothing like that but personally the vast majority of Chinese people I've encountered are all too willing to sell out. It's like the Russians that abandoned Russia during the early phase of the Ukraine war.

Western citizens are hostages of their western corporate and political elites. They have no real power and only by the grace of circumstances are their lives and loyalties not tested. When western societies begin disintegrating, those who object and act out will be killed and stifled, at least arrested and jailed for months if not years. China ironically (despite being blamed for this sort of behaviour) doesn't cross those lines in the modern era for common citizens. They can get arrested for a few days and get invited for talks but that's it. They'll still "misbehave". It is China that can less afford total primal level economic war not because they're going to suffer less but because the West offers their citizen zero avenue of truly effective protest.

ougoah said:

All you described and what others have said is accurate regarding the pain inflicted on the other side. Previously the US has always shied away from taking that primal step but if push comes to shove, it is western societies that can clamp down on social disintegration better than China because western leaders do not care for or fear the common person. Western societies are the real police states. China just has better social cohesion overall and conformity. Beyond a certain threshold of suffering, Chinese people will not tolerate it and will harm the nation. There are plenty of Chinese diaspora who hold these views and are too proud to express their unwillingness to make sacrifices.

I'm sure many of the pro-China Chinese people on this forum are nothing like that but personally the vast majority of Chinese people I've encountered are all too willing to sell out. It's like the Russians that abandoned Russia during the early phase of the Ukraine war.

Western citizens are hostages of their western corporate and political elites. They have no real power and only by the grace of circumstances are their lives and loyalties not tested. When western societies begin disintegrating, those who object and act out will be killed and stifled, at least arrested and jailed for months if not years. China ironically (despite being blamed for this sort of behaviour) doesn't cross those lines in the modern era for common citizens. They can get arrested for a few days and get invited for talks but that's it. They'll still "misbehave". It is China that can less afford total primal level economic war not because they're going to suffer less but because the West offers their citizen zero avenue of truly effective protest.

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First of all, having too much stuff and having to take a break or manufacture for the military is not suffering. China is working towards total self-sufficiency so that there is no real suffering from separating from the West, rather it is a manageable change. Not having stuff is suffering. So it is not a competition of who can suffer the most, but rather China putting the bulk of the suffering on the West while guiding its citizens to reorient their lives in a very doable way.

Secondly, something I have learned from watching countries transform is that we're not all that different; we're just in very different circumstances. China is the country that last proved that it can suffer in combat against the US winning in both Korea and Vietnam. Our citizens have been afforded soft, civilized, even luxurious lives so they have been spoiled to an extent, but in the end, if we need to to suffer and sacrifice to win WWIII, we will do it together. It is a fallacy to assume that those who wear suits and ride in the back of Rolls Royce (or Huawei Maextro) no longer have in them the primal will to fight and survive just because they are farther from it than the poor saps on the street who must every day.

Stay on topic on Taiwan strategy and no Hanjian psychology or racial discussions.

Do you think Xi will take taiwan before he passes? He is getting old after all. Also, with the impending demographic issue, how much time does China have and how will it affect the taiwan situation? Do you think china will take taiwan sooner rather than later?

Mearex said:

Do you think Xi will take taiwan before he passes? He is getting old after all. Also, with the impending demographic issue, how much time does China have and how will it affect the taiwan situation? Do you think china will take taiwan sooner rather than later?

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I guess Taiwan will be reunified with the mainland within five years.

Mearex said:

Do you think Xi will take taiwan before he passes? He is getting old after all. Also, with the impending demographic issue, how much time does China have and how will it affect the taiwan situation? Do you think china will take taiwan sooner rather than later?

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Ridiculous worries, he's only 72 years old, and for a national leader, that age is far from being too late.
The population issue is even more ridiculous, no matter how much we discuss China's aging problem, we should not ignore that China will still have the largest number of high-quality young workers in the world for the next several decades.

Mearex said:

Do you think Xi will take taiwan before he passes? He is getting old after all. Also, with the impending demographic issue, how much time does China have and how will it affect the taiwan situation? Do you think china will take taiwan sooner rather than later?

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I personally don't think so. Everything I've read and everything I've seen indicates to me that Xi does not view Taiwan as a pressing matter. It's clearly an issue PRC keeps a close eye on, because it's pretty obvious that they will act on their red lines. However, I think if everything goes "according to plan", Xi wants to oversee the "period of concern" and China's transition into a highly developed, wealthy country where "common prosperity" is well on its way to being well distributed.

I believe he's going to leave the issue of Taiwan to the next generation. His task is to make sure that they are in a very good position to do so, should they desire.

Dante80 said:

I wanted to ask about that.

My understanding is that the bridge is not approved from Taiwan's end. This means that they are literally building a bridge to nowhere?

Surely they will not be seizing the land on the other end to finish the bridge? Kinmen is controlled by Taiwan.

Click to expand...

lol, it’s a political statement of a name
The bridge actually connects the mainland to an island part of Xiamen city where there is a new airport. The island is a close distance to Kinmen, and they showed plans of how quickly they could construct it if approved (which is not any time soon).

That being said there are islanders who support such a project, and the island already relies on a drinking water pipeline from the mainland. There is also a desire from the residents who desire gas and electricity supply from the mainland as well for reliability.