PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

KFX said:

Very important to remember that Japan's defence build-up is driven by CCP and Russian militarism. From Japan and USA's perspecitve, Taiwan is like a cork that keeps the PLA bottled safely within the First Island Chain. If CCP were to go after Taiwan, they'll definitely need to contend with Japan. It's not so much that Japan/USA need to defeat China in a war, they just need to deter the CCP from starting something in the first place. The last thing they want is the PLAN/PLAAF operating into the western Pacific from the East Coast of Taiwan.

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I don't think China will invade taiwan anytime soon. But this thinking that as long as China doesn't reunify with Taiwan then China is bottled up is wrong thinking for the Japanese and US. The key is China's military strength.

If China is able to surpass US in military strength overall, would they be "bottled up"?

Instead they will overwhelm Japan and Taiwan with so much military exercises that they will basically give up. Suppose, they have 2000+ stealth fighters for example and 10+ aircraft carriers in the next 20 years, they will be circling Japan and Taiwan with constant carrier surveilence and fighter sorties.

This will be backed by thousands of Rocket force missiles, drones, laser weapons and so on.

China will do so much greyzone warfare that the entire first island chain will feel suffocated. They will either give up completely or do something outragous to start a war.

KFX said:

Very important to remember that Japan's defence build-up is driven by CCP and Russian militarism. From Japan and USA's perspecitve, Taiwan is like a cork that keeps the PLA bottled safely within the First Island Chain. If CCP were to go after Taiwan, they'll definitely need to contend with Japan. It's not so much that Japan/USA need to defeat China in a war, they just need to deter the CCP from starting something in the first place. The last thing they want is the PLAN/PLAAF operating into the western Pacific from the East Coast of Taiwan.

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The idea that Taiwan can act like a cork delusional, is Taiwan stopping any of the PLAN training missions from Japan sea out to the coast of Australia? PLAN/PLAAF is already operating into the western Pacific without having east coast of Taiwan.

In wartime the "cork" would be pulled in a second without so much as an after thought, this line of thinking is like putting a plastic lock to hold 20 tons truck and thinking it will hold. But then the western leaders are this stupid nowadays so I won't be surprised.

KFX said:

Very important to remember that Japan's defence build-up is driven by CCP and Russian militarism. From Japan and USA's perspecitve, Taiwan is like a cork that keeps the PLA bottled safely within the First Island Chain. If CCP were to go after Taiwan, they'll definitely need to contend with Japan. It's not so much that Japan/USA need to defeat China in a war, they just need to deter the CCP from starting something in the first place. The last thing they want is the PLAN/PLAAF operating into the western Pacific from the East Coast of Taiwan.

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And is REALLY very important for Japan to remember than the entire China military build up for almost 4 decades is entirely driven by the US militarism. From China Naval strategy to fight the US blue water navy, China Submarine build up where Chinese and US submarine trail each other, China entire drone strategy, China building an entire family of missiles to hit moving Air Craft carriers in the Middle of the Pacific. China Hypersonic Systems, the build up in air defenses to deal with US stealth Jets and Bombers, China stealth tech build up, China space warfare strategy, their spy satellites, China current nuclear build up , China cyberwarfare capabilities, China Asymmetry capabilities, their area denial capability and a million other stuff. Everything is build to deal the US. If the SeeSeePee would be developing their military to only deal with Japan, believe me they would be investing WAY LESS money, resources and technology that they are currently investing now. They will just to be trying to get 50% above Japan capabilities.

Japan is just secondary, in fact I don't think it get a third place. Well, until that woman opened her mouth, now Japan is in second place.

What build up? What deterrence? No only the advantage of quantity multiplied by a factor but also a massive diversity on systems that had and are being built to complicate the world biggest military response, the US. If China is forced to increase their military build up a little bit to deal with Japan separately then Japan right wingers did more harm than good to the already US shaky pacific strategy.

tokenanalyst said:

What build up? What deterrence? No only the advantage of quantity multiplied by a factor but also a massive diversity on systems that had and are being built to complicate the world biggest military response, the US. If China is forced to increase their military build up a little bit to deal with Japan separately then Japan right wingers did more harm than good to the already US shaky pacific strategy.

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As I sometimes like to joke, if the US+allies are struggling to keep up with China while China is only spending half as much of its GDP on military procurement as the US, they probably don’t want to find out what the map looks like if China decides to double its military spending.

latenlazy said:

As I sometimes like to joke, if the US+allies are struggling to keep up with China while China is only spending half as much of its GDP on military procurement as the US, they probably don’t want to find out what the map looks like if China decides to double its military spending.

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A full war mobilization of China has to be scariest thing ever.

But I think US and China could reach a bilateral deal before that and more given that both powers are nuclear armed.

tokenanalyst said:

A full war mobilization of China has to be scariest thing ever.

But I think US and China could reach a bilateral deal before that and more given that both powers are nuclear armed.

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I’m not convinced Sino-American War will end in nuclear war when China has 1k, ideally 2k nukes.

KFX said:

Very important to remember that Japan's defence build-up is driven by CCP and Russian militarism.

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That's tunnel vision. It is very important to remember that China's military buildup is driven by American global imperialism. In the ancient times, China ruled Asia and no one needed even try to contend with that, nor did China need to focus on preserving it.

KFX said:

From Japan and USA's perspecitve, Taiwan is like a cork that keeps the PLA bottled safely within the First Island Chain.

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That's a stupid perspective. It's a cork without a bottle.

KFX said:

If CCP were to go after Taiwan, they'll definitely need to contend with Japan.

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Doubt the CCP will be that lucky; when China reaches to reclaim Taiwan island, it will be from an absolutely dominant military standpoint. The US wouldn't dare fight. Japan will throw itself in for free? That's a dream rarer than free luxury apartments in the city. Although, if it did happen, Chinese rule will really put some new zest in a dying country like Japan.

KFX said:

It's not so much that Japan/USA need to defeat China in a war, they just need to deter the CCP from starting something in the first place.

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Oh, then we can just conclude the Chinese civil war by returning Taiwan back to China. Right now, there's nothing to start so much as there is to continue.

KFX said:

The last thing they want is the PLAN/PLAAF operating into the western Pacific from the East Coast of Taiwan.

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Well they'll have to learn that they don't always get what they want, and that will be more and more true with the decline of Western power and the rise of China.

KFX said:

The inevitability of Taiwan becoming part of the mainland is definitely a CCP narrative.

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American power in Asia is a Western narrative. It is fragile, dependent on a few bases and aircraft carriers, which have been the target of Chinese military research for the last few decades.

KFX said:

As for strategy, one wonders about the top ranks of the PLA given Xi's corruption purges.

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There far less people getting fired in the Chinese military than the US military with their leadership in schizophrenia between the democrats and Trump replicans.

KFX said:

How will this affect leadership and decision making if push comes to shove around Taiwan? PLA is working with decision command to speed up tactical leadership, but in a war will Beijing really allow this style of leadership?

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There is no threat to the rule of the CCP except if it refuses to fight in the event of Taiwan's declared independence. That is the only possibility for an uprising that will dethrone the government.

KFX said:

I'm sure the PLA has a very detailed strategy for Taiwan contingencies, but what would the execution look like?

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How messy it gets will depend on whether the residents of the ROC value their lives and whether America is more scared of defeat or more desperate for a last chance to prove itself.

KFX said:

I'm not convinced that the CCP feels that it's leadership is up to the job.

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You cannot wake a man (or dog) pretending to sleep.