PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
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“Nothing in the present Charter shall invalidate or preclude action, in relation to any state which during the Second World War has been an enemy of any signatory to the present Charter, taken or authorized as a result of that war by the Governments having responsibility for such action.”

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Enemy State clauses is a term used to refer to article 107 and parts of article 53 of the United Nations Charter. They are both exceptions to the general prohibition on the use of force in relation to countries that were part of the Axis.

Under article 107 States are allowed to take enforcement action "as a result of" World War II against "any State which during the Second World War has been an enemy of any signatory to the present Charter", while under article 53 regional arrangements directed against the renewal of aggressive policy by a former enemy State are not required to seek Security Council authorization before taking measures to prevent further aggression.

A 1995 UN General Assembly resolution recognized that the enemy state clause had "become obsolete" and announced its intention to begin the process of amending the Charter as provided for in Article 108 of the UN Charter.

Both provisions are considered to have fallen into obsolescence after the conclusion of peace treaties and the admission to the UN of all former enemy States. While Germany and Japan have advocated for the deletion of these clauses from the Charter, they have not yet been removed as of 2017 due to the complex amendment process.

Regarding the conclusion of peace treaties, Germany has concluded a peace treaty with the parties. On the other hand, Japan has not concluded a peace treaty with Russia.

Currently, the two countries are continuing diplomatic negotiations toward the conclusion of a peace treaty. For this reason, the enemy state clause remains valid in bilateral relations between Russia and Japan.
 
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abc李

New Member
Registered Member
Minm said:
The problem with all these western analyses is the incorrect underlying assumption that China would attack on a whim. The most likely realistic scenario is China attacking in reaction to a move towards formal independence. That would involve a drawn out ratcheting up of preparations. But even if there's no preparation, a blockade can be implemented by the PLAN with no preparation, as has been demonstrated already. A bombardment of the island with missiles won't need any additional preparation. The air force is practicing flying into the ADIZ on a daily basis. So a shock and awe campaign could be started immediately. Whether it's worth it to attack with no preparation to deny the separatists the possibility of mobilisation or whether it's better to mobilize first I don't know, but I'd tend towards attacking immediately and mobilising while the US starts its own mobilisation.


Isn't China already building missiles at a rapid pace?


Most of this has already partially been done because of zero covid or could be done immediately such as tightening currency controls and nationalising foreign assets. The only thing that can't be done already is selling China's reserves, some of them will likely have to be written off if China is forced to act.


America's actions are sufficient to create anti American sentiment in China. The US has never been this unpopular. And if war broke out but zero covid would be stopped, most people would probably benefit financially


That would be nice to have, but unnecessary. 2007 was a long time ago and the stop loss was probably more about signalling than preparation. In any case, recently demobilised personnel can easily be reintegrated


That would make sense for the US or Russian military that is mostly managing old hardware. The vast majority of PLA equipment is new so it won't need excessive maintenance before the war


Once again the author is confusing American capabilities with Chinese capabilities. China can build a hospital in less than two weeks


None of these takes much time


That seems unlikely. More reasonably China would destroy the separatists as fast as possible and only start mobilisation after the resumption of hostilities and only if the US starts its own mobilisation


Russia's campaign is a masterclass in what not to do. The government is probably learning more from it than the separatists. Just use the American air war on Iraq as a template


Americans thinkers are often clueless and can't stop saying America number one. A strategic surprise attack is possible today, but in 2027 it would be even easier. So it's better to wait for now
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Just revisiting the topic after couple years. I wonder what you guys think about what are indicators of a potential military confrontation in the Straits. @Minm you seem to disagree with the indicators mentioned by the article and I agree that they are not all well formulated. But do you think there might be some other indicators, that could give way PLA preparations for Taiwan contingency? And can they be spotted through OSINT?


There still must be something right? I presume that the kids of high ranking PLA/CCP members studying abroad would be coming home, that money would move around, maybe tourism from the mainland to Taiwan would be limited and stuff like that right?

Also the scale of military activity presumably would be much greater than during normal exercises. I agree that 12 months in advance as the articles mentioned seem like too much way too ahead, but there still would probably be couples months to mobilise the logistics and gather enough supplies before missiles start flying. Or do you think that potential invasion preparations could go virtually unnoticed in the span of next couple years, with the current level of PLA activity in the region?
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
abc李 said:
Just revisiting the topic after couple years. I wonder what you guys think about what are indicators of a potential military confrontation in the Straits. @Minm you seem to disagree with the indicators mentioned by the article and I agree that they are not all well formulated. But do you think there might be some other indicators, that could give way PLA preparations for Taiwan contingency? And can they be spotted through OSINT?


There still must be something right? I presume that the kids of high ranking PLA/CCP members studying abroad would be coming home, that money would move around, maybe tourism from the mainland to Taiwan would be limited and stuff like that right?

Also the scale of military activity presumably would be much greater than during normal exercises. I agree that 12 months in advance as the articles mentioned seem like too much way too ahead, but there still would probably be couples months to mobilise the logistics and gather enough supplies before missiles start flying. Or do you think that potential invasion preparations could go virtually unnoticed in the span of next couple years, with the current level of PLA activity in the region?
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Let's take the most likely scenario where the DPP decides to hold a referendum on formal independence.
After all, China can live with the status quo, with the strategic balances shifting into China's favour with each passing year.

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In the weeks and months leading up to the referendum, there will be a lot more Chinese military activity, which includes exercises that surround/blockade Taiwan. Both the Chinese military and Taiwanese military will be at a heightened alert status and partially mobilised.

So China keeps ramping up the pressure (military/economic/political), but the DPP continues.

The Chinese military has the depth to treat this as realistic training exercises, whilst exhausting the Taiwanese military.

There will be multiple meetings where the Chinese leadership debate on the next course of action.

However, at some point, they will decide the only option left is Armed Reunification.

But once that fateful decision is made, I expect the Rocket Force missiles to launch within hours.
At the same time, the Air Force will be prepping for the missions that they've already practiced for.

There's no point waiting for this decision to leak. After all, many warnings will have been issued in the weeks prior, and have been ignored.

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There's also no need to actually declare war, as Taiwan isn't recognised as an actual country (that includes the US and Europe)

And I think an actual Taiwan invasion would happen at least 2 weeks afterwards.
 
Nevermore

Nevermore

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The Beijing Daily continues to publish criticism of Japan, with its rhetoric growing increasingly sharp.

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Beijing Daily Sharp Commentary｜“Don't Say We Didn't Warn You”—If Japan Crosses the Line, Old and New Accounts Will Be Settled Eighty years ago, the heroic Chinese people fought a bloody 14-year war and defeated the Japanese aggressors. Eighty years later, the Chinese people remain undaunted in the face of any provocateur. The Taiwan issue is the core of China's core interests. Anyone who dares to cross this red line will face the unwavering opposition of over 1.4 billion Chinese people! Regarding Sanae Takaichi's reckless remarks, the flood of “You've got a deal” comments from Chinese netizens speaks volumes: Those who repeatedly test the dangerous edge, attempting to disrupt the Taiwan Strait and regional stability, will find both new and old accounts settled together! Beijing Daily Sharp Commentary
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

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Nevermore said:
The Beijing Daily continues to publish criticism of Japan, with its rhetoric growing increasingly sharp.

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Beijing Daily Sharp Commentary｜“Don't Say We Didn't Warn You”—If Japan Crosses the Line, Old and New Accounts Will Be Settled Eighty years ago, the heroic Chinese people fought a bloody 14-year war and defeated the Japanese aggressors. Eighty years later, the Chinese people remain undaunted in the face of any provocateur. The Taiwan issue is the core of China's core interests. Anyone who dares to cross this red line will face the unwavering opposition of over 1.4 billion Chinese people! Regarding Sanae Takaichi's reckless remarks, the flood of “You've got a deal” comments from Chinese netizens speaks volumes: Those who repeatedly test the dangerous edge, attempting to disrupt the Taiwan Strait and regional stability, will find both new and old accounts settled together! Beijing Daily Sharp Commentary
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China's so nice and civil. We actually asked Japan to recant the statement... what would that do? Sometimes, less is more. I'd just respond to Japan, "Ask for an existential threat and we'll give you one." That's it.
 
Nevermore

Nevermore

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China has made preparations for substantive countermeasures against Japan.
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Beijing's recent series of high-profile counter-statements indicates that China will no longer exercise restraint or adopt a low-key approach toward Japan's provocative remarks.
We may have initially thought this was merely a diplomatic attack, but China's actions seem to indicate that things are moving toward substantive sanctions.
 
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ACuriousPLAFan

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Nevermore said:
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Beijing's recent series of high-profile counter-statements indicates that China will no longer exercise restraint or adopt a low-key approach toward Japan's provocative remarks.
We may have initially thought this was merely a diplomatic attack, but China's actions seem to indicate that things are moving toward substantive sanctions.
Click to expand...

If a more prominent means of message delivery is required, perhaps a large-scale military exercise around the Ryukyu Islands and/or at the southern doorsteps of the mainland Japanese islands should be seriously considered.
 
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