PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Phead128

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Mmmeeeto said:
Their bravery only shows when they are fighting a weak enemy like Iraq. Definitely won't be the same for China
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US tends to prefer to fight enemies that it can overpower relatively easy and with minimal casualties. Yes, just see the US aggressiveness against Iranian nuclear program vs. North Korean nuclear program. It's a night and day difference, the memory of Korean war is fresh and alive.

If China continues to increase the cost of intervention conventionally (and nuclear wise), then it's a forgone conclusion will sit this one out.
 
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4Tran

Junior Member
Registered Member
votran said:
semiconductors is the key point for US/west "rally under the flag" when taiwan confict become real . because you can't rally american/western europe/australian/japanese/south korean with the true face off reason like
if we don't fight a ww3 with china now , they gonna break out 1st island chain design to contain them , they gonna control world most busy shipping lane , threaten our rule , our throne in pacific ocean and the world
only nut job will join the military or support a ww3 with china with those reason
but if you say : let fight china and help taiwan , save the semiconductor industy if you refuse china gonna control most advantage tech industry : no chip = no car , no washing machine , no TV , playstation , xbox , smartphone ...etc for your every daily life anymore
that gonna work much better , people fear the thing threaten their daily life comfort way more than some distance geopolitic issue

if china want to prevent this : taiwan semiconductor industry must be destroy first before invasion , or blockable even start

because there are no benefit doing after US/nato/west/japan already successful using it to rally their nations enter the war with china

once their nation enter the war that mean no chicken out because soldier die , ship sunk . aircraft shot down , military/nation pride under attack , superpower , most powerful military allied on earth lose face again "temu , wish.com ,cheap copy communist" their alway look down upon so most citizen will have no choice but to support the war
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I've seen all sorts of Youtube yahoos talking about how Taiwan could easily destroy TSMC facilities if a war were to break out. My thought was "Of course! Why would anyone have trouble destroying their own infrastructure?" And why would anyone destroy their own factories and machinery in the first place? And it wouldn't even help because China already has the second most advanced semicondutor foundries in the world. If TSMC gets wiped out, then China would then have the most advanced ones in the world!

Mmmeeeto said:
This reminds me of a funny conversation I had with an Iraq War veteran

I asked him what motivated him to fight in Iraq since all justifications for the war were exposed to be made up

he gave me the most clueless response that "they were commies" or something which absolutely makes no sense, I think the same will go for the majority of US servicemembers

So this is why I think the emphasis China puts on ideological education is really important

Because when US soldiers start dying left and right in the scs they would be in for a surprise that their sacrifice and PTSD is for snapdragon x2 elite

Their bravery only shows when they are fighting a weak enemy like Iraq. Definitely won't be the same for China
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Why fight an optional war you can't win? For a long time, the Americans have conducted wargames where the PLA tends to win. Once they project the loss of a carrier or two in a conflict, it'd no longer worth it for them. Note how the messaging on Taiwan has changed over the years. Nowadays the Americans don't even want a war in Taiwan any more even though it feels that a war is the only way to counter China.

Realistically, Taiwan is not a core interest of the US. The only reason it has much importance is because it's a pain point for China so it's advantageous to hang onto it.
 
lcloo

lcloo

Major
The greatest weakness of US military is if they suffer heavy casualties fighting for other countries which most Americans have no idea where on Earth that place is, and also what and why must they die for others.

Political and civilian backlash will be more prominent than during Vietnam war due to access of Internet today. There will be more draft dodgers than in Vietnam war if they know they are going to fight against China. Canada's demographics will be instantly becoming younger.
 
4

4Tran

Junior Member
Registered Member
lcloo said:
The greatest weakness of US military is if they suffer heavy casualties fighting for other countries which most Americans have no idea where on Earth that place is, and also what and why must they die for others.

Political and civilian backlash will be more prominent than during Vietnam war due to access of Internet today. There will be more draft dodgers than in Vietnam war if they know they are going to fight against China. Canada's demographics will be instantly becoming younger.
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I know that the popular theory is that the Americans are very casualty-adverse, but I don't think that's necessarily true. They took losses in Afghanistan and Iraq for no reason, and while there was a lot of controversy, they ran military operations for over a dozen years. No, I think that the greatest weakness is that the US military just isn't as strong as they think they are. For decades, the US has puffed itself up as the strongest military in the world. While there is justification for this, they haven't really fought anyone who can fight back, and their battle achievements are pretty underwhelming when looked at in a critical eye.

Even though it is called a near peer, China is fully a peer adversary to the US. In terms of overall strength the American military is greater, but most of this strength can't be used against China in any realistic war scenario. And so, it's likely that American forces will be vastly outnumbered in the early phases of the conflict and they'll find that their vaunted "experience" is a lot less useful when facing off against a peer military. I just can't imagine the US fighting a long and unsuccessful war given this kind of condition.
 
B

bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
US has great strength but most of the hardware are sitting back at home. Each carriers are only able to equip with 20-25 F35 so China can easily outnumber that in a local war. Even with 11 carrier, their F35 cannot outnumber China's 5th warplane.

The West keeps talking about experience is very important. To me, it is not as important as you think. Most advanced warplanes have AI embedded that supports the pilot. And whatever do they in the battlefield has gone through computer simulation many times that tells them how to deploy their pieces and how to achieve the best results..

China can easily exhaust any opponent's missile defense with large swarms after swarms. It is like Iran 10x.
 
4

4Tran

Junior Member
Registered Member
bebops said:
US has great strength but most of the hardware are sitting back at home. Each carriers are only able to equip with 20-25 F35 so China can easily outnumber that in a local war. Even with 11 carrier, their F35 cannot outnumber China's 5th warplane.

The West keeps talking about experience is very important. To me, it is not as important as you think. Most advanced warplanes have AI embedded that supports the pilot. And whatever do they in the battlefield has gone through computer simulation many times that tells them how to deploy their pieces and how to achieve the best results..

China can easily exhaust any opponent's missile defense with large swarms after swarms. It is like Iran 10x.
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It's 14 F-35s per carrier. Max. The original plan was to have 2x squadrons of 10 F35s per carrier air wing, but the USN didn't have enough fighters so they scaled it back to 1x squadron of 14 planes. Not all carriers even have this F-35 squadron yet, so several of them only have 4x squadrons of F/A-18s. For example, USS Ford doesn't have any F-35s, and as far as we know, the F-35 isn't even certified for its EMALS.

The lack of depth of Western arsenals is possibly their greatest weakness. They simply don't have the munitions to carry out long term high-intensity combat. It's unlikely that the US could sustain operations longer than a month, and they have no ability to rebuild these munitions at a reasonable rate. In comparison, China has automated factories jumping out advanced ordnance, and they're probably able to increase these production rates without too much trouble. It's the difference between a country that plans in the long term versus ones that only plan in short term and have never had consider developing excess capacity.
 
sunnymaxi

sunnymaxi

Major
Registered Member
bebops said:
China can easily exhaust any opponent's missile defense with large swarms after swarms. It is like Iran 10x.
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10x is hugely underestimated.

if you count both countries GDP PPP/Manufacturing output.. it is like 25x/65x.

absolutely no comparison. its an insult of China.
 
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