PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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another505

Junior Member
Registered Member
Ya, i don't really buy the super gun idea.

If it's a typical high velocity gunpowder cannon, that range is absurd and the gun barrel life will be very short, expensive and time consuming to replace. When it's being replaced, the ship or gun is doing nothing.

If it's an assisted rocket boast and other stuff, why not just have a missile instead? The rocket is already doing the heavy lifting, might as well make the rocket bigger and do the whole thing

The only option is a 400mm rail gun and I would be very impressed if china pulls it off.
 
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montyp165

Senior Member
Tomboy said:
It'll likely take until the end of this 5YP to close all the qualitative gaps against the US and the next to actually ramp up production to match US numbers. 2035 is a fair estimate IMO.
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If things play out the way I expect it to, the completion of the 5YP is a 'nice to have' but not necessary for the final outcome in any event.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
votran said:
US just captured venezuela's maduro and his wife easy like a fking cakewalk .....when will china able to do that with taiwan ? or philipines ?
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Launch a surgical strike in Taiwan or an unprotected Philippines to capture the president? Quite possible in Taiwan, easy in the Philippines without the USN. But when will we do it? Probably never because it doesn't get anything accomplished without conquering and controlling the territory.

Better question is when will Vietnam do it? Why are you focused about our country instead of your own?
 
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CMP

Captain
Registered Member
manqiangrexue said:
Launch a surgical strike in Taiwan or an unprotected Philippines to capture the president? Quite possible in Taiwan, easy in the Philippines without the USN. But when will we do it? Probably never because it doesn't get anything accomplished without conquering and controlling the territory.

Better question is when will Vietnam do it? Why are you focused about our country instead of your own?
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It's quite hilarious to me that anyone would consider the kidnapping of a foreign president from a weak and poor country as conduct worth emulating and worshiping. Vietnam's leaders voluntarily go to China to build partnerships and cooperation. In contrast, the US can only secure cooperation through coercion, debt traps, coups, and kidnapping. That's a very stark contrast.
 
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solarz

solarz

Brigadier
CMP said:
It's quite hilarious to me that anyone would consider the kidnapping of a foreign president from a weak and poor country as conduct worth emulating and worshiping. Vietnam's leaders voluntarily go to China to build partnerships and cooperation. In contrast, the US can only secure cooperation through coercion, debt traps, coups, and kidnapping. That's a very stark contrast.
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Seriously, people who think the US won by kidnapping Maduro doesn’t understand how the world works.
 
Sardaukar20

Sardaukar20

Major
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
Because they are the ruler of the world. They have 60% of global GDP, they have the dollar and the entire world finance runs because of them, they have the entire world tech stack under their control.

Compared to that, what does China have? Just some production of goods? Just production alone will not give China superpower and the ability to do what it wants. They need to create brands, standards and systems.

They need to export not just their goods but their software tech stack, hardware standards, their currency. Essentially become an alternative of the west. Otherwize, when the war starts and China gets cut off by the west, not many countries will fall into the China camp.

If the choice is between trading with China and trading with the west, pretty much every country will choose the west, even if China is their biggest trading partner. Because access to western market, finance and tech is more important than trade with China. This is the biggest Chinese weakness and it must be overcome before China starts the Taiwan war. Cause the west will impose heavy sanctions on China and force every country to enforce it.
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It's not the country that chooses to trade with West over China. Its mainly just the elites, not the common folks. Losing access to the US financial market is painful for the elites. However, losing access to Chinese goods is fatal to all.

If China was less important than the US, why then have the US, Japan, India, Philippines, European countries, etc have failed to decouple from China? This is after over 7 years of the Trade War, 5 years after Covid. All this big talk about pivoting away from Chinese manufactured goods. Why didn't it happen as we enter 2026? As it turns out, having lots of money is nice. But if you don't have stuff to buy with it, then that kinda defeats the purpose of having money.

Russia is a prime example of who is more important. The Russian elites kicked and screamed hard when their nation decoupled from the US economy. However, Mother Russia survives, because it still has access to Chinese manufactured goods and proxy trade. They realized that after some brief pain, they don't actually need USDs to survive. They can always buy Chinese goods with Rubles, Yuan, or barter with natural resources.
 
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iewgnem

Captain
Registered Member
I mean, if PLA turns a blockade exercise into an actual blockade and Lai didnt get to run, and once it becomes apparent America either chicken out or gets knocked out, assuming he didnt get killed immediately, does anyone expect him to die for Taiwan rather than surrender to PLA SOF?
 
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