PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Gloire_bb said:
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That's way more than most ascms altogether, and those who do cost more do so for reasons other than their main seeker.
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The $2 Million figure for an anti-ship seeker came from the CSBA when they were estimating for ballistic/hypersonic missiles.

EDIT. But perhaps costs for radar seekers have gone down?
Or maybe most antiship missiles are subsonic, so they don't need radar seekers with that much performance?

I would also add that the US Navy has publicly said that subsonic missiles are easy for medium-range SAM systems to shoot down
 
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bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
muddie said:
IMO issue is not if China has the ability to capture Maduro like the US did, but lack of action, timidness, and political will when it comes to these types of operations. Simple truth is that the world respects and adheres to hard power, not diplomacy, negotiation, "win-win" politics, etc. Say what you will about Trump, US, Russia but they don't fear political backlash or perception on the world stage when it comes to geopolitical interests.

While I agree Taiwan is on a way higher league in the power spectrum than South American countries, a demonstration of lethal capabilities would easily solve China's annoyances in the SCS and intimidate those who challenge China's interests.
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I think China is waiting for a lopsided military capacity before they do anything. In the minds of China government, they assumed Japan and Us Navy will participate in the war. I don't see U.S building more 6th gen platforms or missiles than China. In 2035, China should have a clear lopsided advantage (capacity wise).

All of US modern warfare are against small countries that gave US a lopsided win.
 
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montyp165

Senior Member
bebops said:
I think China is waiting for a lopsided military capacity before they do anything. In the minds of China government, they assumed Japan and Us Navy will participate in the war. I don't see U.S building more 6th gen platforms or missiles than China. In 2035, China should have a clear lopsided advantage (capacity wise).

All of US modern warfare are against small countries that gave US a lopsided win.
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I'd say that'll be achieved before 2030 rather than 2035, all things considered.
 
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Aval

Junior Member
Registered Member
Tomboy said:
It'll likely take until the end of this 5YP to close all the qualitative gaps against the US and the next to actually ramp up production to match US numbers. 2035 is a fair estimate IMO.
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I'd been mulling over this myself, and I've arrived at 2035 being the optimistic estimate and 2040 being the more cautious one. This is basically napkin maths, but I'm interested in hearing other people's opinions on timeframes versus my own speculation.

Acute geopolitical events aside (which are unpredictable over a 10-15 timeframe anyhow), I believe China is waiting for maturation of key civilian industries and military systems as a prerequisite for Armed Reunification due to consideration of worst-case assumptions.

There worst-case assumptions are:
  • AR would cause complete Western bloc military intervention
  • AR, regardless of outcome, ends the post-WW2 world order and thus China's current economic trend of sustained, smooth growth
The key prerequisites for AR are namely:
  • Semiconductors and AI
  • Next-gen air force
  • Carrier fleets for blue water ops
Semiconductors and AI, along with other technologies like sustained nuclear fusion for cheap energy, are critical for the 4th Industrial Revolution and the immense productivity benefits it brings. This is a prime chance for China to leap ahead of the Rest of World (ROW), like Britain did with the 1st Industrial Revolution. China's EUV prototype is currently nearing completion but hasn't produced chips yet, which places it around 2010 of ASML's EUV project that reached mass production in 2019. So, 9 more years from now until Chinese EUVs start mass production, and then 5 more years to finish scaling with multiple EUV foundries established and Chinese chips flooding the high-end market worldwide. That's 2039.

Next-gen military air force structure, including 6th-gen fighters for tactical overmatch, KJ-3000 and co. for comprehensive anti-stealth, and H-20 for affordable long-distance strategic strikes are all crucial for overmatch in peer conflicts and would ultimately be the weapon that determines the new world order. Chinese 5th-gen broke cover in 2011, achieved IOC in 2017 and reached FOC with military significant numbers (equal numbers of J-20s to F-22s) around 2022. So, for 6th-gens the extrapolation is 6 more years until J-36/50 achieve IOC and then 5 more years until there's enough military mass. That's 2036.

Aircraft carriers, especially CVNs, are necessary for global power projection. While not necessary for AR, we can expect a war over Taiwan to be a spark leading immediately to chaos and opportunities worldwide. Should China win regionally (i.e., AR), then it would strongly benefit an existing fleet of CVNs capable of true blue water ops to immediately seize opportunities and and set a new world order. Type-003 Fujian was laid down in 2017, launched in 2022, IOC in 2025 and likely FOC in 2027, which is 10 years. The first CVN (likely a testbed like Type-001 and Type-003) is under construction and won't be finished until 2028, at which point the improved CVN slated for mass-production should be laid down, and likely multiple concurrently. So, it will be 10 more years since then for their FOC. That's 2038.

Based on China's tendency towards caution, I'd say 2040 is more likely. The centenary of both the People's Republic and the end of Century of Humiliation is still 9 years away, in 2049. A rough date of 2040 for armed reunification leaves a buffer of 5-9 years for prerequisite delays or a protracted total war (for reference, WW2 was 6 years).
 
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latenlazy

Brigadier
Aval said:
China's EUV prototype is currently nearing completion but hasn't produced chips yet, which places it around 2010 of ASML's EUV project that reached mass production in 2019. So, 9 more years from now until Chinese EUVs start mass production, and then 5 more years to finish scaling with multiple EUV foundries established and Chinese chips flooding the high-end market worldwide. That's 2039.
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China’s EUV is already more powerful than ASML’s prototype in 2010. These are not the same level of prototypes.
 
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