PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

FriedButter said:

So basically. You are huffing copium that the ROC military is going to give up precious fuel supply in a war time scenario to keep civilians happy.



I notice you completely avoided the question but I suspect it is the former by your response. The lack of any acknowledgement to the ROC not accepting PRC humanitarian ships in favor of foreign ships is telling in your response. Cargo ships are huge and there is plenty of space where things can be hidden. How do you think drugs are being smuggled everywhere constantly.

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Do you actually think Taiwan wouldn’t spare some fuel for water pumps and hospitals? And I did answer the question I said I wouldn’t blame China but i would blame China if didn’t let any humanitarian aid ships in at all, and nothing I said is telling but ok.

FriedButter said:

Quite frankly. I get the impression that all your complaining has nothing to do with the wellbeing of civilians but with how to keep the ROC from losing the war. Since the only thing you keeping trying to imply is that the war should be prolonged indefinitely in other words a ceasefire. What you are secretly desiring. Whatever you are willing to admit it or not. Is to get China to sign an ceasefire or Trump’s Minsk 3.0 of allowing western troops to be send to Ukraine Taiwan.

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lol, all I ever said was no collective punishment do you not think China can win without collective punishment? If so that’s saying alot. I want China to win not Taiwan, Taiwan belongs to China as it always have not that illegitimate government but not wanting collective punishment or unnecessary harm to civilians doesn’t mean I want western troops on Taiwan or for China not to win, you don’t have to be one or the other

plawolf said:

These weapons are not meant to be tactical weapons to fight the landings, but strategic terror weapons to strike at Chinese soft civilian targets.

The original game plan for the US was to use AR as the pretext to bomb China’s economic heartland to rubble and thus secure American global preeminence for the next half century or more while China rebuilds.

However, Chinese long range strike capabilities have essentially taken that move off the board for the Americans, as all their strike assets within range of the Chinese mainland are liable to be obliterated in the opening hours of actual combat such that they are unlikely to cause any meaningful damage.

So now the plan is the outsource the attacking of Chinese civilian and industrial targets to the willing idiots on Taiwan. I would not be surprised if they are demented enough to go after Chinese civilian nuclear power plants to try to cause maximum damage. The ultimate poison pill move.

The PLA has plenty of capacity to defend military targets in range against HIMARs, but throw in all the civilian targets and things get more tricky. The PLA will either need to front deploy its missile defences close to the coast to be able to engage the missiles at source; but doing that will put those SAM batteries within range of more strike options from Taiwan; or they will need to deploy many more batteries to cover all key civilian targets; or both most likely. And if the PLA is forced to focus most of its air and missile defence forces around Taiwan, that leaves other theatres potentially more open, such as the NE around Korea and Japan for example, or SW towards India, for the US and vassals to open up a second or even third front.

Well, that’s the wet dream of course. The reality is that PLA strike capabilities will massively blunt the effectiveness of any such attacks against Chinese civilian targets. The most likely consequence of the sale is the PLA just place more orders for MALE drones, hypersonic missiles and SAMs to cover those additional launchers and missiles many times over. So it’s just going to make things even worse for America in the long run.

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yea I made the mistake of trying to look at the HIMARS and all the anti-ship missiles in a tactical sense, but the reality is ROC could be just blind-shoot them in the general direction of suspected targets or a major metropolitan centre, and let them land where they will. Now stopping these projectiles is one thing, if the PLA is forced to devote resources to hunt down the launchers, I consider it a (slight) win for ROC. it won't make a huge difference in the grand scheme of things, but certainly not something PLA can ignore.

Ministry of National Defense: The PLA maintains round-the-clock combat readiness, is capable of fighting at any time, and will prevail in battle.

On the afternoon of December 25, the Ministry of National Defense held a regular press conference, where Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, spokesperson for the Ministry of National Defense, answered questions from reporters.

Reporter: According to U.S. media reports, the PLA will launch a "three-step invasion of Taiwan," listing so-called "optimal timing" and "ideal landing sites." Recently disclosed details from a classified U.S. Defense Department report indicate mainland forces could destroy U.S. advanced weapons before they reach Taiwan, implying America has lost the capacity to "defend Taiwan." What is your comment? Zhang Xiaogang: Certain media outlets are wasting their efforts speculating about PLA actions and peddling "war anxiety" with ulterior motives, which only undermines peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. The Taiwan issue is purely China's internal affair and does not tolerate any external interference. We are committed to pursuing peaceful reunification with utmost sincerity and effort, but we will never renounce the use of force and reserve the option to take all necessary measures. Should "Taiwan independence" separatist forces provoke or even cross the red line, we will have no choice but to take decisive action. The PLA maintains round-the-clock combat readiness, is prepared to fight at any time, and will achieve victory in any conflict, resolutely crushing any attempts at "Taiwan independence" separatism and external interference.
Source: Ministry of National Defense website



Ministry of National Defense: For Every Provocation by "Taiwan Independence" Forces, We Will Advance One Step Closer to National Reunification

On the afternoon of December 25, the Ministry of National Defense held a regular press conference where Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang, spokesperson for the Ministry of National Defense, answered questions from reporters.

Reporter: Reports indicate Taiwan's National Security Bureau recently stated that PLA aircraft have conducted nearly 3,600 sorties around Taiwan this year, setting a new record. PLA aircraft and vessels have carried out 39 "joint combat readiness patrols." Taiwan's defense department claims it has formulated contingency procedures in response to mainland military actions and is preparing for potential PLA surprise attacks. What is your comment?

Zhang Xiaogang: Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory. The PLA's routine military exercises and combat readiness drills around the island, along with its counter-secession and counter-interference operations, are entirely legitimate, necessary, reasonable, and lawful in safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity. The PLA will relentlessly combat separatism and advance reunification. For every provocation by "Taiwan independence" forces, we will increase pressure and advance our efforts, until the complete reunification of the motherland is achieved. We solemnly warn the DPP authorities: Recognizing reality and aligning with the prevailing trend, completely abandoning "Taiwan independence" separatist schemes, and ceasing all provocative and war-inciting actions are the only correct and realistic choices.

The actions of Japan's right-wing forces are all too predictable. They exploit the Taiwan Strait crisis to exaggerate threats against Japan, sow discord between China and Japan, and simultaneously put on a show for the United States. Amidst this, a strong, militaristic populism is rising within Japan, bolstering the far-right's agenda of "normal statehood," military expansion, nuclear armament, and the right to initiate wars. Should conflict erupt in the Taiwan Strait, Japan could gamble that China won't inflict devastating damage on it. It would then use America's sword to strike China, thereby reclaiming its place on the world stage.

Nevermore said:

Japan could gamble that China won't inflict devastating damage on it. It would then use America's sword to strike China, thereby reclaiming its place on the world stage.

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I wouldn't expect any less delusion from the same country that thought they could defeat the US in WW2. This time around I recommend China nuke every single Japanese city with a population greater than 100k.

CMP said:

I wouldn't expect any less delusion from the same country that thought they could defeat the US in WW2. This time around I recommend China nuke every single Japanese city with a population greater than 100k.

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To be fair, by mid-late spring of 1942 they weren't all that far from achieving just that, and only really lost the opportunity to do so for good in mid november.
Delusion or not, it was well executed, and they slipped/failed to grasp it themselves, on more than one occasion.

As for the rest - I mentioned that again, Japan we know today (1945 - now) can't exist in a world where US loses Asian security guarantor status. It's a country compromised enough to swallow Plaza and almost 4 decades of it's consequences.
I.e. there's no reason to be sentimental; it's the state of affairs.

The Japanese on their social media think that PLA would attack them when an earthquake occurs, they have earthquake anxiety. Especially when/if the big one hits.

Looking back at the Japanese history, of course they would think that, attacking a nation when they're undergoing strife is their modus operandi. The projection is palpable.

Gloire_bb said:

To be fair, by mid-late spring of 1942 they weren't all that far from achieving just that, and only really lost the opportunity to do so for good in mid november.
Delusion or not, it was well executed, and they slipped/failed to grasp it themselves, on more than one occasion.

As for the rest - I mentioned that again, Japan we know today (1945 - now) can't exist in a world where US loses Asian security guarantor status. It's a country compromised enough to swallow Plaza and almost 4 decades of it's consequences.
I.e. there's no reason to be sentimental; it's the state of affairs.

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No, it was doomed from the start. There was no plausible victory against China, and starting another enormous resource sink against giants far larger and richer than Japan doomed them. What they failed to grasp was that victory, by their terms, required than the Western navies (mostly the USN) fight on Japan's terms, which was impossible if they had a modicum of competence. Also, they failed to grasp that the USA wouldn't treat it as a colonial war with low casualty acceptance, instead it was a total war with almost unlimited resources being allocated.

JimmyMcFoob said:

No, it was doomed from the start. There was no plausible victory against China, and starting another enormous resource sink against giants far larger and richer than Japan doomed them. What they failed to grasp was that victory, by their terms, required than the Western navies (mostly the USN) fight on Japan's terms, which was impossible if they had a modicum of competence. Also, they failed to grasp that the USA wouldn't treat it as a colonial war with low casualty acceptance, instead it was a total war with almost unlimited resources being allocated.

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It's a bit abstract.
There's just little US could do in Pacific, had they lost Midway or Solomons. And there's certain lack of appreciation that mood in US about Japan in spring 1942 was in fact turning gloomy.

Japan didn't fail due to American resources superiority - that was programmed failure which it didn't intend to even touch. Japan failed, fair and square, against pre-war US navy, in a decisive battle (Midway) and protracted campaign on Guadalcanal (decisively - in November night battles at sea and on land).
Midway is straightforward (name says all why it's important). Guadalcanal was built as a massive bomber airfield, to deny highly vulnerable (thousands of miles) long leg between it and entire south Pacific.
Either loss would've prevented US ability to support campaign in the Pacific, and momentarily deprived it of naval strength to even do the reverse option (northern option).

What that would meant is US having started from scratch, from the east, under UK leadership. Which is a total failure, and quite likely wouldn't have worked out politically.

This is important to understand in context of modern US/China situation. Resources in naval war by themselves mean less, and Japan won twice in situations of absolute resource inferiority before.
Naval war is tied to limited technical resources, and naval war in Pacific is dominated by (one can guess) Pacific.

Basic conclusion is that complacency and suffering key defeats in campaign with maxed goals is unacceptable; nation should understand consequences of defeats, and understand them as such, rather than just counting score points(approach which also lost naval WW2 to Italy, btw).

More important one is that US position in Eastpac is in fact rather shaky, especially in non-colonial world. Number of key positions, which can effectively deny US access to the theater, is small, and didn't change too much from 1940s (difference is in fact Japan, which is accessed from the sea and can be subjected to a decisive interdiction campaign).

Several key amphibious assaults even now effectively cut America away from Westpac, because Pacific is still that big, that empty, and Alaska/north are still that underdeveloped. And it isn't all that hard to call the names. It's Ryukyus(Okinawa itself preferably), Taiwan, Philippines, Wake, Midway and...Solomons/Fiji/Samoa.
From the west, it's straits, where there are now neutral nations with one particular exception (Singapore).
All memorable names, as you may notice.