PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

tokenanalyst said:

Looks like that China is going to use everything it takes to take a target that is 130 km from its vast coast. Probably a full mobilization of the country resources. The issue comes the US and their vassals are willing to sacrifice for that island. Because a week or two show is not going to cut it. What is going to happen when TSMC fabs are destroyed? When most of talent migrated to the US? When the threat of nuclear war become apparent? my guess if that after that island get destroyed will lose its value and will be abandoned.

You see the Taiwanese could have reached a good deal with the Mainland before any contingency, but no, stooges are going to try to force that island to get decimated from coast to coast and the lives of the people who live there become an inferno. For nothing.

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rule 1 in geopolitic and warfare strategy : never fall into moral trap because enemy alway use it again you

2/ TSMC labs are the main rally under the flag reason US/allied gang nation + their populations support the war with china to save taiwan

it must be destroy first before the offical invasion start .

if not china basically help US/allied gang nations convince their population accept go to war with china much more easier

because human nature care more about something affect their normal daily life more than something happen far away

US/allied gang nations can't just convince their population go ww3 with china with reason like : stop china breaking out of 1st island chain because this reason is just far away geopolitic matter for most of their population don't affect their daily life much

but with : let go to war and save taiwan or else china control TSMC and they gonna ruin your daily life : no more toaster , coffee/icecream machine , washing machine , TV , video game console , PC , smart phone , cars for you anymore ....etc

> the convincing effort become way easier .

by destroy TSMC with missile attack , no fly zone not allow talent people escape first before launching offical amphibious invasion ...china effectively remove the strongest ability allow US/allied nations grovernment convincing their population accept go to war with china to save taiwan

TSMC no longer exist = any gov offical , leaders dare to order ww3 with china will be kick out by their own population in a flash .

so yeah .......taiwan semi-conductor industry must be destroy before the offical amphibious invasion start....that the only way

CMP said:

Simple. PrSM is much too little in scale of production, much too expensive per unit, and much too late, both in delivery "deadlines" and in terms of being behind Chinese capabilities. The end result is it will not make any difference to the final political outcome.

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Again, what does any of this have to do with the fact that 500km is 500km and distance works the same for everyone?

Wrought said:

Again, what does any of this have to do with the fact that 500km is 500km and distance works the same for everyone?

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Physics works the same for everyone too. So I guess there's no need to zoom out and assess anything else aside from fundamental principles of physics then.

CMP said:

Physics works the same for everyone too.

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Correct.

CMP said:

So I guess there's no need to zoom out and assess anything else aside from fundamental principles of physics then.

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Not at all, a solid grasp on the fundamental principles of physics is necessary but not sufficient.

Wrought said:

Correct.



Not at all, a solid grasp on the fundamental principles of physics is necessary but not sufficient.

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Right. Which is exactly what I am saying. Which is why it's more important to zoom out and assess the industrial scale, production and delivery deadlines, cost per unit, etc. Instead you're just refusing to engage with any of that. Either you're failing to grasp why assessment of those is important in a thread discussing a Taiwan contingency, or you're intentionally being obtuse.

CMP said:

Right. Which is exactly what I am saying. Which is why it's more important to zoom out and assess the industrial scale, production and delivery deadlines, cost per unit, etc. Instead you're just refusing to engage with any of that.

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No, that is not what you have said at all. You replied to my very simple point about the fundamental principles of physics (500km is not long-range, contra whatever some journalist misunderstands) by going off on some weird tangent. None of which changes the fact that 500km is not long-range, for anyone involved. Because physics works the same for everyone.

I have no idea why you felt compelled to jump in and contest such a trivially obvious point, but here we are.

Wrought said:

No, that is not what you have said at all. You replied to my very simple point about the fundamental principles of physics (500km is not long-range, contra whatever some journalist misunderstands) by going off on some weird tangent. None of which changes the fact that 500km is not long-range, for anyone involved. Because physics works the same for everyone.

PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Yonaguni becoming increasingly important in any TW contingency: https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/11/u-s-marines-are-eyeing-an-outpost-just-70-miles-from-taiwan/ A sustained Marine Corps presence on Yonaguni could deny the PLA Navy access to the greater Pacific Ocean with area denial...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

I have no idea why you felt compelled to jump in and contest such a trivially obvious point, but here we are.

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It's not a tangent. It's the fundamental point in thinking about any Taiwan contingency. Assess the balance of current forces and likely future forces on either side. Your strange obsession with whether 500 km is short or medium or long is really pointless.

CMP said:

It's not a tangent. It's the fundamental point in thinking about any Taiwan contingency. Your strange obsession with the number 500 is pretty bizarre.

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It's very much a tangent, seeing as the original claim was simply that 500km constitutes long-range. Which it is not.

The most pointless back and forth ever.

CMP said:

This is the most autistic thing to get hung up on out of anything you could possibly get hung up on. Long, short, whatever. It's long in the sense that the US needs a modern 2023 missile to reach out from that distance.

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You are free to talk about whatever you want on your own time, but if you specifically reply to me with a claim which is simply wrong, then I'm obviously going to be confused. And the difference between short and long range munitions is extremely relevant in all its forms. That's the whole reason why we distinguish SRBM, MRBM, IRBM, ICBM, in the first place. Not to mention that 1980s Tomahawks will suffice perfectly well to cover 500km (and much more).

And dismissing important details as "autistic" frankly doesn't speak very well for your credibility. If you insist on making wrong claims, then the least you can do is own them.

CMP said:

In contrast, China has been sitting on large stockpiles of missiles with that kind of range for years. By Chinese standards, it would be short range.

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No, by everyone's standards. Hence physics. There is nothing inherently wrong with short-range missiles, which is why everyone makes them. Different tools have different jobs.