PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

tamsen_ikard said:

I don't think china's sam system network is as good as russia or us. Russia has like 1500 s-300/s-400. US has 1000+ patriots. Compared to that China only has 300 HQ-9 launchers overall and out of which only 100 HQ-9B. It only has 2-300 s-300 from older generation as well. It's simply inadequate to cover the entirety of China. There will be gaps and US could exploit them. China needs to really up its air defense missile production if they want to have a solid air defense shield.

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tamsen_ikard said:

I don't think china's sam system network is as good as russia or us. Russia has like 1500 s-300/s-400. US has 1000+ patriots. Compared to that China only has 300 HQ-9 launchers overall and out of which only 100 HQ-9B. It only has 2-300 s-300 from older generation as well. It's simply inadequate to cover the entirety of China. There will be gaps and US could exploit them. China needs to really up its air defense missile production if they want to have a solid air defense shield.

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PLAGF: SAM 754+
Medium-range 250 HQ-16A/B (CH-SA-16)
Short-range 504: 24 9K331 Tor-M1 (RS-SA-15 Gauntlet); 30 HQ-6D (CH-SA-6); 200 HQ-7A/B (CH-SA-4); 200 HQ-17 (CH-SA-15); 50 HQ-17A (CH-SA-15)
Point-defence HN-5A/B (CH-SA-3); FN-6 (CH-SA-10); QW-1 (CH-SA-7); QW-2 (CH-SA-8) SPAAGM 25mm 270 PGZ-04A

GUNS 7,126+
SP 126: 30mm adds PGL-19; 35mm 120 PGZ-07; 37mm 6 PGZ-88
TOWED: 7,000+: 25mm PG-87; 35mm PG-99 (GDF-002); 37mm PG-55 (M-1939)/PG-65/PG-74; 57mm PG-59 (S-60); 100mm PG-59 (KS-19)

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PLAAF: SAM 894+
Long-range 670+: 196 HQ-9 (CH-SA-9); 96 HQ-9B (CH-SA-21); 130+ HQ-22; 32 S-300PMU (RS-SA-10 grumble); 64 S-300PMU1 (RS-SA-20 Gargoyle); 120 S-300PMU2 (RS-SA-20 Gargoyle); 32 S-400 (RS-SA-21B Growler)
Medium-range 150 HQ-12 (CH-SA-12)
Short-range 74+: 50+ HQ-6A (CH-SA-6); 24 HQ-6D (CH-SA-6)

GUNS • TOWED • 57mm PG-59 (S-60)

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Biscuits said:

Those numbers seem completely wrong. 100 HQ-9 is barely 2 battalions. That would imply the Pakistan military has around half as many HQ-9s as China itself?

From open sources, China has 70 air defense battalions to US' 15 patriot + 10 thaad. Russia has 16 S-400 battalion and it's hard to find how many older S-300s, but the latter are not in production anymore.

Not only does China have more and marginally more modern IADS, more importantly they're also not spread out over a wide area.

The air defense over China is considered the densest in the world for a reason.

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Long-range S-300V (RS-SA-12A/B Gladiator/Giant); S-300V4 (RS-SA-23)
Medium-range 350: ε200 9K37M1-2 Buk-M1-2 (RSSA-11 Gadfly); ε90 9K317 Buk-M2 (RS-SA-17 Grizzly); ε60 9K317M Buk-M3 (RS-SA-27)
Short-range 120+ 9K331/9K331M/9K331MU Tor-M1/M2/M2U (RS-SA-15 Gauntlet) (9M338 msl entering service)
Point-defence 780+: 390 9K33M3 Osa-AKM (RS-SA-8B Gecko); 390 9K35M3 Strela-10 (RS-SA-13 Gopher); 9K310 Igla-1 (RS-SA-16 Gimlet); 9K34 Strela-3 (RSSA-14 Gremlin); 9K38 Igla (RS-SA-18 Grouse); 9K333 Budget (RS-SA-29 Gizmo); 9K338 Igla-S (RS-SA-24 Grinch)
SPAAGM: 30mm 240+ 2K22M Tunguska (RS-SA-19 Grison)
GUNS -
SP: 23mm ZSU-23-4
TOWED: 23mm ZU-23-2; 57mm S-60

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1 SAM regt with S-300PM1 (RS-SA-20 Gargoyle); S-300PS (RS-SA-10B Grumble)
1 SAM regt with S-300PM1 (RS-SA-20 Gargoyle); S-400 (RS-SA-21 Growler); 96K6 Pantsir-S1 (RS-SA-22 greyhound)
1 SAM regt with S-300PS (RS-SA-10B Grumble)
1 SAM regt with S-300PS (RS-SA-10B Grumble); S-400 (RS-SA-21 Growler); 96K6 Pantsir-S1 (RS-SA-22 greyhound)
4 SAM regt with S-400 (RS-SA-21 Growler); 96K6 Pantsir-S1 (RS-SA-22 Greyhound)

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Long-range 200: 56 S-300PM1 (RS-SA-20 Gargoyle); 40 S-300PS (RS-SA-10B Grumble); 104 S-400 (RS-SA-21 Growler)
SPAAGM: 30mm 30 96K6 Pantsir-S1 (RS-SA-22 greyhound)

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4 regt with 9K37M1-2 Buk-M1-2 (RS-SA-11 Gadfly); 9K317 Buk-M2 (RS-SA-17 Grizzly); S-300V (RS-SA-12 Gladiator/Giant)
1 bde with S-300PS (RS-SA-10B Grumble)
2 regt with S-300PS (RS-SA-10B Grumble)
6 regt with S-300PM1/PM2 (RS-SA-20 Gargoyle)
12 regt with S-400 (RS-SA-21 Growler); 96K6 Pantsir-S1 (RS-SA-22 Greyhound)

SAM 714:
Long-range 584: 160 S-300PS (RS-SA-10B Grumble); 150 S-300PM1/PM2 (RS-SA-20 Gargoyle); 20S-300V (RS-SA-12 Gladiator/Giant); 6 S-350 Vityaz (RS-SA-28); 248 S-400 (RS-SA-21 Growler)
Medium-range 80 9K37M1-2 Buk-M1-2/9K317 Buk-M2 (RS-SA-11 Gadfly/RS-SA-17 Grizzly)
SPAAGM: 30mm 50 96K6 Pantsir-S1/S2 (RS-SA-22 greyhound)

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Point-defence 30+: 30 Strela-10MN (RS-SA-13 Gopher); 9K310 Igla-1 (RS-SA-16 Gimlet); 9K38 Igla (RSSA-18 Grouse); 9K333 Verba (RS-SA-29 Gizmo); 9K338 Igla-S (RS-SA-24 Grinch); 9K34 Strela-3 (RS-SA-14Gremlin)
GUNS - SP: 23mm 150 BTR-ZD

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Sinnavuuty said:

I think I was quite clear when I said: China has one of the largest networks of air search radars and sensors...

Also, disregarding the air search radars and sensors part, let's analyze the Chinese GBAD component:

GBAD strength of PLAGF divided into:
17 AD div
8 AD bde
8 AD regt

PLAAF GBAD force divided into:
1 SAM div (3 SAM regt)
26 SAM bde

Still missing missiles:
HQ-11 - Point-defence
HQ-26 - Long Range ABM
HQ-19 - Long Range ABM
HQ-29 - SAM Long Range

Remembering that the source is the TMB 2024 which is completely out of date regarding the PLA.

Furthermore, the quantity manufactured for the US Army may have been 1,000 Patriots, but only 480 M902/M903 Patriot PAC-3/PAC-3
MSEs are in service, divided into eight brigades, three of them permanently based abroad.

For any country large enough like China and Russia, simply any number deployed may be insufficient to cover the entire country, even though this is not considered ideal, the air defense system, especially long range, becomes an important asset for front denial. Multilayered, long-range engagement capabilities are the basis for the consolidation of anti-access and air denial (A2/AD) bubbles along the border.

Assuming that China is in an inferior position in the war, Chinese anti-access and area denial capabilities are an asymmetric warfare strategy in which a militarily weaker state seeks to prevent or hinder an aggressor state from freely using certain areas, geographic regions or means (land, naval or air) to attack it. China, in response to the US ability to launch large-scale operations in its airspace, establishes large A2/AD exclusion zones or “bubbles” centered on long-range systems. These A2/AD bubbles allow Beijing to deny the use of airspace in these areas.

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Sinnavuuty said:

The Russian GBAD force according to TMB 2024 is:

RuGF: SAM 1,520+ (16 AD bde)

VMF: 4 AD div HQ

Divided into:

VKS: 9 AD div HQ

VDV:

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RoastGooseHKer said:

As with the current Trump policy, it is a rather desperate measure to shore up deterrence. However, I think the 10% spending advocated by Elbridge Colby is a double-edge sword. It is meant to pressure Taiwan to spend more on U.S. weapons/components and shore up deterrence against the PRC in the short run. However, should deterrence fail, Washington would still have an excuse/option of not directly intervene militarily by accusing Taiwan of failing to meet the 10% suggested by USDOD. It still maintains a large degree of flexibility for Washington. It relates directly to Colby’s point that Taiwan is “important but not existential” to the U.S. national interests.

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Neurosmith said:

Assuming the numbers are correct, does this mean that China operates more ground-based long-range SAMs than the US but less than Russia?

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Sinnavuuty said:

I think I was quite clear when I said: China has one of the largest networks of air search radars and sensors...

Also, disregarding the air search radars and sensors part, let's analyze the Chinese GBAD component:

GBAD strength of PLAGF divided into:
17 AD div
8 AD bde
8 AD regt

PLAAF GBAD force divided into:
1 SAM div (3 SAM regt)
26 SAM bde

Still missing missiles:
HQ-11 - Point-defence
HQ-26 - Long Range ABM
HQ-19 - Long Range ABM
HQ-29 - SAM Long Range

Remembering that the source is the TMB 2024 which is completely out of date regarding the PLA.

Furthermore, the quantity manufactured for the US Army may have been 1,000 Patriots, but only 480 M902/M903 Patriot PAC-3/PAC-3
MSEs are in service, divided into eight brigades, three of them permanently based abroad.

For any country large enough like China and Russia, simply any number deployed may be insufficient to cover the entire country, even though this is not considered ideal, the air defense system, especially long range, becomes an important asset for front denial. Multilayered, long-range engagement capabilities are the basis for the consolidation of anti-access and air denial (A2/AD) bubbles along the border.

Assuming that China is in an inferior position in the war, Chinese anti-access and area denial capabilities are an asymmetric warfare strategy in which a militarily weaker state seeks to prevent or hinder an aggressor state from freely using certain areas, geographic regions or means (land, naval or air) to attack it. China, in response to the US ability to launch large-scale operations in its airspace, establishes large A2/AD exclusion zones or “bubbles” centered on long-range systems. These A2/AD bubbles allow Beijing to deny the use of airspace in these areas.

Click to expand...

tamsen_ikard said:

Well look at your numbers, exactly what I said. I also base my numbers from IISS military balance just like you.

China only has 300 HQ-9 including 100 HQ-9B. And also a few hundred older gen s-300 launchers. These numbers are much lower than what Russia and US has in terms of long range AD. China may hae 7000 AA guns but no one considers them important.

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tamsen_ikard said:

Well look at your numbers, exactly what I said. I also base my numbers from IISS military balance just like you.

China only has 300 HQ-9 including 100 HQ-9B. And also a few hundred older gen s-300 launchers. These numbers are much lower than what Russia and US has in terms of long range AD. China may hae 7000 AA guns but no one considers them important.

Click to expand...

tamsen_ikard said:

Well look at your numbers, exactly what I said. I also base my numbers from IISS military balance just like you.

China only has 300 HQ-9 including 100 HQ-9B. And also a few hundred older gen s-300 launchers. These numbers are much lower than what Russia and US has in terms of long range AD. China may hae 7000 AA guns but no one considers them important.

Click to expand...