PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

oseaidjubzac

Just Hatched
Registered Member
I think the best way to go is to turn up the dial on cross-strait business investment to the max. Encourage Taiwanese businesses to invest in the mainland, give them massive corporation tax breaks. Also invest in Taiwanese sectors as much as the Taiwan government will allow. Almost unilaterally confer a status of special economic zone on Taiwan. This is lay down the foundation for a reunification attempt in the 2030s or 2040s.

It's impossible; now Taiwan does not allow any form of Chinese investment. It's already quite difficult to maintain the current trade relations.
 

oseaidjubzac

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Not necessarily so for a country like China that can make so many guided missiles/drones they can match more than 1 to every civilian.

Targeting the integrity of the enemy civilization can be a good way to halt/deter attacks. For example in the event of SK or Japanese aggression against China, China can overmatch their cities them with bombs and stop their warfighting ability.

The issue is when countries start shit they don't have the power to finish, like US in Vietnam, Israel in Palestine and so on.
I disagree because the number of bombs required for such actions is astronomical. I believe that the precision bombing strategy of the U.S. military during World War II remains correct even to this day, at least when it comes to developed economies like Taiwan, Japan, or South Korea.
I believe that compared to World War II, the production process of offensive weapons is more fragile and more susceptible to being disrupted by targeting a single point.
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
It’s a dumb idea because the retaliatory nuclear strike would be Guam lol. You can take a guess at who can regenerate their positions faster. These discussions of nuclear contingencies are pointless. About the only conversation involving nukes that has any meaningful utility is how the threat of their uses informs military delimitations and political bargaining in the conflict scenario tree.
Guam is not an American state, the retaliation target should be Hawaii.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think the best way to go is to turn up the dial on cross-strait business investment to the max. Encourage Taiwanese businesses to invest in the mainland, give them massive corporation tax breaks. Also invest in Taiwanese sectors as much as the Taiwan government will allow. Almost unilaterally confer a status of special economic zone on Taiwan. This is lay down the foundation for a reunification attempt in the 2030s or 2040s.
there is no Chinese investment in Taiwan.

Taiwanese investment in China favors Taiwan already. Why would you want to help the enemy's corporations exploit your IP at low cost? The intermediate goal should be Taiwan's impoverishment so they have low morale.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
It’s a dumb idea because the retaliatory nuclear strike would be Guam lol. You can take a guess at who can regenerate their positions faster. These discussions of nuclear contingencies are pointless. About the only conversation involving nukes that has any meaningful utility is how the threat of their uses informs military delimitations and political bargaining in the conflict scenario tree.
Taipei is a population center and economic center. The correct retaliation target is New York.
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
If you want to keep the escalation ladder contained you go after tactically useful targets. By nixing Guam you’re basically ending the war anyways. The US can’t sustain logistics without Guam and they can’t rebuild on a nuclear waste site.
I disagree. Hawaii got pearl and is US proper. An island state just like Taiwan is a island province. A state that is filled with military and civilians . Guam is an overseas territory, there are no emotional attachment for most Americans, and most people there are attached to the military. Americans want to ruin some Chinese real estate, then expect same same return.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
If you want to keep the escalation ladder contained you go after tactically useful targets. By nixing Guam you’re basically ending the war anyways. The US can’t sustain logistics without Guam and they can’t rebuild on a nuclear waste site.

Not that I like the discussion about nuclear exchange in general, but if the question is about targets useful to logistics in a westpac conflict for the US, in many ways Hawaii is much more consequential than Guam (which itself would likely be extensively be targeted in a preceding stage of a conflict with conventional Guam ranged weapons anyhow).

Of course more important than the question of impact on logistics sustainment is the nuclear strategy part.
 

Chevalier

Captain
Registered Member
I disagree. Hawaii got pearl and is US proper. An island state just like Taiwan is an island province. A state that is filled with military and civilians . Guam is an overseas territory, there are no emotional attachment for most Americans, and most people there are attached to the military. Americans want to ruin some Chinese real estate, then expect same same return.
Indeed, the jack london American desire to exterminate Chinese makes the tacit American approval of nuking Chinese people a foregone conclusion, Countervalue targets are major American cities full of white peoples since Americans in their apartheid world order would not care if Detroit was nuked. You have to target something that matters to them.

The thing is, this countervalue response doesn’t have to be nuclear, hypersonic payloads can deliver the equivalent of daily ww2 style bombings on the american infrastructure.
 
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