PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
these “Military strategists” indulge in their own fantasiesLol, so many fantasies on that page.
This is a little off topic, but PLAN’s ambitions to retake Taiwan is probably getting easier by the month due to half hearted attempts by Taiwanese government to defend the island. Consider the conscription duration of similar programs with other countries:
Taiwan - 4 months!
Singapore - 24 months
Finland - 5 to 12 months
S Korea - 18 to 22 months
Switzerland - 8 or more months
Israel - 36 months
Total active military personnel number only about 153000 today, including those serving the Air Force, Navy and Marines. In addition, Taiwan’s reservists, which supposedly has up to 3 million in number (all males up to 36 years old can be called after their compulsory 4 months end), can hardly be counted upon due to lack of refresher courses.
Here is an article lamenting the poor state of affairs which originally appeared in Foreign Policy (that’s under a paywall so I found a free to read site):
Taiwan - 4 months!
Singapore - 24 months
Finland - 5 to 12 months
S Korea - 18 to 22 months
Switzerland - 8 or more months
Israel - 36 months
Total active military personnel number only about 153000 today, including those serving the Air Force, Navy and Marines. In addition, Taiwan’s reservists, which supposedly has up to 3 million in number (all males up to 36 years old can be called after their compulsory 4 months end), can hardly be counted upon due to lack of refresher courses.
Here is an article lamenting the poor state of affairs which originally appeared in Foreign Policy (that’s under a paywall so I found a free to read site):
From 96 to 2001, ROC military had been in a state of personnel cutbacks. The old conscription system of KMT design was unfavored and the new volunteer system designed by “the Greens” was ineffective. ROC military did still possess some technological edge at the time due to their arms sale of F16s and a maritime balance in the strait. However even those advantages were shattered by the PLA military development after 2016. The morale of the military is at all time low. Backbone of their political motivation, the KMT, is in complete shamble and rejected. New administration both hated and needed the military just to stay in power. Arms sales are done not for increasing actual defence efficiency, but for public illusion and guaranteeing electoral votes from Taiwanese uneducated on the subject.
As for the PLA, their structural reform and military policy formulation are targeted and precise. New weapon systems and force multipliers aim at diminishing US force projection, first in the strait, then in South China Sea, then first Island Chain and now Second Island Chain. PLAN’s rapid buildup of a comparable and capable force are the most surprising part. Before 2008, one would never dream of PLAN reaching such a scale to be able to challenge US Forces in West Pacific.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Here is a fearsome weapon to crush the Taiwan separatist
Nightmare for India & Taiwan: world most fearsome artillery, China new AR-3 750mm MLRS ~600km range
World most powerful long-range MLRS, the new AR-3 Multiple Launch Rocket System with 750mm rockets strike at 600km distance.I always thought MLRS with range to hit the island from the mainland would be the "end". I never took those MLRS firing from cargo ships too seriously as that would still be too vulnerable.
BM deployed by PLA forces was always meant to counter the "high end" ROCAF assets. BM is not a cheap weapon, so it is "like for like".
So the purpose of the "Porcupine strategy" of ROC became distributing lower end but high firepower assets spread throughout the theatre to make it expensive to knockout. Basically Truck mobile AShM and Tuo Chiang boats.
Many people think drones are the way to go, but drones are still very expensive and vulnerable to SHORAD such as Stingers and AA cannons.
MLRS still has the vulnerability, but should come at a much lower price, while still providing good accuracy when equipped with Beidou guidance. So what do you really do to counter this threat?