We are talking about a hypothetical case here. Since the liberation of Taiwan would be an continuation of Chinese civil war, I put less than 40% chance of UN involvement as UN force didn't intervene in mainland. If soviet provided air support over Taiwan strait like it did over north Korea to counter US airpower or managed to limit US full involvement by transport PLA soldiers with its ships, I think PRC could have a 50/50 chance. After all, PRC concentrated over 500,000 soldiers in provinces across from Taiwan.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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New tide fraction is most cohesive and most disciplined fraction among DPP, it focuses on the quality of its members instead of quantity. It is also very active and adept at using NGOs motivating and influencing universities and labours. All of which makes it the most dangerous fraction in DPP.
Taiwan isn’t the same as the mainland. The Soviets did not want a direct confrontation with the US as demonstrated in Korea. How willing were the Soviets? How will they counter American naval power? Amphibious operations isn’t just about the number of soldiers. Honestly I don’t know how you came up with this 40% and 50/50.
Difficult. Hainan campaign was the test case which was March-May 1950. Even though Hainan was won with a huge advantage, it didn't leave time for Taiwan: By June 1950 Korean War already started.
You asked for odds and I gave your odds. 50/50 is dependent on soviet transporting PLA soldiers with its ships, a bluff daring Americans to sink them. If US also doesn't want to kill many soviet sailors, soviet ships could get close to Taiwan for PLA to land. Since KMT lost most of its trained fighting force on the mainland already, once PLA lands in force, PRC has a good chance.
Anyway, all of this is off topics. If you want to continue. Let's PM each other.
Lol so your logic is that you are not being allowed to express your opinions here even though you have just expressed them? Why can’t people disagree with you. What do you know about what people here can or can’t say. Based on your logic no wonder your “deduction” is way off.
I agree it would be difficult to liberate Taiwan. But Hainan was liberated by PLA fourth field army (northeast PLA) whereas soldiers facing Taiwan were from the Third field army (East China PLA) under Su Yu. Manpower was not a problem though.
That’s not a calculation. Soviets could be pretending to be Chinese like they did in Korea. US could land troops on the island, they could bombard landing troops. There are many more possibilities than the ideal scenario.
Like I said before, the whole thing is hypothetical anyway. Let's just agree to disagree.
How can one deduce the average Chinese person's thinking when the starting point of one's assumptions are based on nothing but projections and conjectures? I have a higher probability of guessing your country's political decisions based on which party is in power based on my time spent, time lived, time educated and invested in your country. In comparison, your "opinion" is not even remotely based on anything tangible based on lived experience, academic studies but may come from underestimation of a society, people, and country that an increased amount of people simply refused to accept. That's where my annoyance came from and I recognize that just because I may find some of the comments about China personally repugnant, highly offensive, shallow, and worst of all ignorant that doesn’t give me the license to insult you (personally)or spew invectives that'll inevitably derail the spirit and rules of the forum. My apologies.
But back to the discussion, the only certainty of outcome you are looking for is for the threshold to be broken and I hope to your God that day wouldn't happen, but if by some unfortunate day it arrives, then you'll have the answer you're looking for and it won't be the one you're expecting or hoping to materialize or I will be proven incorrect which I strongly doubt will happen.