PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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canonicalsadhu

Junior Member
Registered Member
FriedRiceNSpice said:
Are you taking into account that for each year that passes, the production gap shifts further in China's favor and so does the technological gap? Today, the US still holds a technological advantage in certain domains.
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Not to mention that China's green tech developments are going to turn China in 2-3 decades from the world's biggest energy importer to world's largest energy exporter, in addition to chip self-sufficiency which (along with EU/US/JP pushing for chip reshoring) will inevitably make Taiwan far less strategically important region than it currently is.
And others have mentioned the existent (and growing) military production gap between China and US. And that too with China spending a mere 1.7% of GDP on defense.
Time is on China's side. Drastically.
 
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ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
plawolf said:
That’s the typical American-centric world view based entirely on racism (Chinese can only copy and can’t innovate) and projecting a revisionist history (America is the arsenal of democracy) that never truly existed in the first place and is utterly nonexistent in today’s world where China is the factory of the world and America genuinely struggles to build even basic low tech legacy arms like artillery shells in operationally meaningful volumes.

China doesn’t just have one ace up its sleeve in the form of hypersonics. It is increasingly gaining and even leading across the board in both quantity and quality. Where America still hold a lead, it is usually as a result of inheritance from its earlier golden age. But that dividend is fast eroding and age expiring.

As time passes, China’s advantages will only increase. This is why the Americans are so desperate for a war now or in the near future, where they still have a fighting chance. Give it another 10 years and China’s military advantage will be so overwhelming that it might as well be described as dominance.

If you just look at the areas of focus and growth that China is pursuing, it’s abundantly clear that Beijing has long determined that it will win any fight for Taiwan, and is now setting itself up to take the next major prize, which is Japan.

I think China has rightfully concluded that Japan will be fully involved in any fight over Taiwan. So it is going to settle new and old accounts all at once with the Japanese.

This is where Russia and NK becomes relevant, and why China is investing in carriers and LHDs and cruisers, and stealth bombers. All of which are massive overkill for Taiwan.

I don’t think China will immediately go for a full invasion of the Japanese home islands. But I do see it looking to take Okinawa and other key second island chain islands to repeat America’s WWII strategy of starving the Japanese home islands while also conducting massive bombing of Japanese military and industrial targets throughout its home islands with an aim of forcing a capitulation.

At the same time, pushing China’s security perimeter to the second island chain will safeguard China’s industrial heartland along its east coast and China will basically convert to war economy beast mode and just spam unprecedented numbers of naval warships, warplanes and armour for a few years until it is ready to invade the Japanese home islands with as much overwhelming force as it wants.
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Sir we share the same idea, China will bring the fight in their backyard, that's the calculus that Japan and the US didn't factor in. They want to contain the theater in Taiwan but the Chinese will not give them the satisfaction.
 
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