PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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Nope. Philippines is actually a very critical country for their geographical location, somebody has already answer this question for you. It give US more access to put their bases and capability to secure their supply into Taiwan and South China Sea better than before. Also, it is an excellent fortress for the US if the war against China is ever happen. What will China do if US strike your Mainland from Philippine? Attack Philippine with your army and navy? Oh, that will be a nightmare for China. As US will has access for millions of Philippine people to become their meat grinder. They just need to give them weapons to fight against China invaders. And China will be stuck in a bloody war against Philippine, not US.
If Philippine is defeated, and their people are perished, your mainland is already affected by the war. That's including your industry, economy, and military prowess. But US still fresh and intact. And Philippine is not alone. Your relation with ASEAN will be affected. Also They still have other countries for US to become the battlefield that can become very bloody for PLA. Like Japan and South Korea. Do you think at that time China still has the same level of economy power like today? I don't think so. But US will be get positive outcome from this war. Because China won't be able to compete against US economically again at that time. And let say, China will go on and beat Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, also Philippine, you still has to beat US and their NATO allies.
Don't you think that it is a very stupid scenario for China if that ever happen?
Now let me ask you, if China and US will ever in conflict, like in Ukraine war, what side do you think better for China. To be in Russia position, or to be in NATO position? Well, for me, I like China to be in NATO position today. You just need send the country who has conflict in US weapons and supplies. While US will be in bloody war against that country, and lost a lot of prestige, if some of their ships ever sunk in the war.
For example, in US - Houthi war. If China help Houthi in the war, China will need only to spent money and weapons for Houthi. But at the other side, If Houthi can sink some of US warships, US will lose a lot of prestige because of that. China will stay intact, while US will be bloody and suffered because of it.
And what if the war in the middle east spread and become more bloody? China will gain prestige because they help the middle east "Allies", while US will stuck in a very bloody war and suffer because of that. Not to mention if that war manage to sink some of US Arleigh Burke destroyers and shootdown some of F-35. Don't you see that it will destroy the illusion of US military might and humiliated them in the eyes of the world?
So do you understand what I mean with my previous post? in China vs US geopolitical war today, China must be the one who dictate where is the battlefield is, not US. If China strike Taiwan, or Philippine directly, they are stupid. Because they just fall into US trap and must suffer directly because of the war.
But let say, if China can trap US to fight a bloody war in some where else. Like for example in Middle East today, that war will only cost China some money and weapons. It also give China prestige in the Muslim World. But US and their allies are the one who have to suffers because they have to fight directly in there.
That's my whole points of my previous posts.
United States today is the strongest of the world. Not only because they are strong militarily, but because they have a lot of Vassals (Allies). They managed to stay in power because they give the illusion that their military weapons are the best and no one can beat them in the battlefield. But if China manages to destroy those illusion, less and less countries will willing to become US vassals. And that will give China more benefit. And for China to do that, They have to weaken US economy and military, by trap them into a prolonged war some where else. And not only that, they have to be trapped in a war that similar to Ukraine. A war that capable to give US a bloody nose. A war that more than Afganisthan. Because in this war, the adversary will not alone. They'll get a lot of help in term of weaponry and supplies from Russia (and China secretly).
Just send it the Chinese Coast Guard and the Philippine will acquiescence, seriously IF the US want us to sacrifice for them at least give us the necessary arms needed instead of some second hand junk. Plus those artificial Island had nullify the strategic importance of the Philippine as most of country are reachable and easy target for Chinese missile. And we don't have the basic defense to intercept them as our air defense network is inadequate. (we only have one air defense radar in Tagaytay which is old and is in need of replacement)
The US doesn't have a land base missile capable of hitting China (ATACM doesn't have the range, tomahawk? the Chinese had a capable air defense system ) and there is NO infrastructure both civilian and military to support an aircraft carrier in the eastern part of Luzon as the Chinese had neutralize the importance of SUBIC as they had build those artificial Island making the SCS a Chinese lake.
Like India who want to invade a shithole country? who will suffer the most if there is a war with China? FYI we import most of our food and OIL and all of it transit thru the SCS, plus we import the majority of our goods from China, so yes let's see IF the Philippine can endure a long conflict.
The arsenal of democracy....lol the neocon dream, the Russian had burst that bubble and the global south had seen the hubris of the collective west. We want something new and the Chinese is seen as a good alternative.
most of them want to join BRICS, so what's the hoopla is all about.
China had friends too that is ready to help just ask Kim and Putin, seriously these two characters are giving the Koreans and the Japanese the nightmares....lol
And with what industry? Let's see if the American can immediate respond and help, any war with a Major peer power will resort to nuclear holocaust.
You just answer your question, the Chinese are capable of sinking an aircraft carrier, so on what capacity can the American provide help to the Philippines? those land bases are sitting ducks, involving us in their conflict is a liability to the US, because we can't fight.
Tell that to the Ukrainians as there are a possibility of a US exiting the conflict and throwing them out of the bus, Afghanistan is a preview and the Taiwanese, SK and the Japan are nervously watching. The US can't sustain a prolong conflict, the result of an Imperial overreach, currently the US is involved in a two front war and is bankrupting itself, loosing prestige at the same time, can they afford and win a war against China?
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The Philippines doesn’t share a land border with China. It would be a naval conflict, where ship count, not manpower, matters more.
In such a conflict, China doesn’t need to occupy Manila or annex the Philippines. Rather, it just needs to degrade adversarial capacity, meaning taking out bases and ships.
To put it a different way, the meat needs to get to the meat grinder first.
Otherwise, I agree with the bulk of your post.
I think you're overhyping Philippines at bit too much.
But the CPC will probably avoid war with it when possible because its more efficient to do so.
I would compare its approach to doing things with Russia based on recent events. Russia had to deal with a colour revolution in Kazakhstan. China had to deal with one in HK. Russia sent an army into Kazakhstan and cleared the problem in a short period. China basically did nothing and waited for one year for people to lose interest by themselves.
Obviously China appeared weaker at the time and people were mocking it. But so what? Have you noticed the west which virtue signaled about HK so much in 2019 like to pretend it doesn't exist right now? Why is that? Its because China won a very clean cut victory by doing nothing. They got HK back and kicked out all the foreign agents without resorting to using the army. You don't like HK and want dat freedomz and democrazies? Go ahead and move to the west then for we aren't stopping you. The western media which was trying so hard to claim genocide in HK is now trying to memoryhole this event because otherwise people will ask, how come this didn't happen? Are you lying to us again? And now the US is trying to kill off HK by putting all these restrictions on it. Some two faced bastard.
Russia did solve the issue in Kazakhstan quickly. But people say the root cause is not resolved and the issue is still there. More and more people will somewhat sympathize with the west. Even their current leaders cannot be fully trusted anymore. The west will try to co-opt more grievances to try this again and next time it will be harder for Russia.
This is what I call suffering more now to get a better victory at the end of the day.
If Philippines wants to try so hard to get nuked for its US master then thats their problem. But China is not going to let itself be put in a position like that so easily. You can mock it all you want but honestly that doesn't mean much because if they win in their end, all your mocking will not age well and they will gladly fling it back at you. Maybe China will not take the first shot but it will gladly take the last one.
Btw this sounds like a bit of copium but the fact the DPP can't even get a majority party at this critical time, means a lot of people in TW are realising that the status quo is pretty good after all. Maybe even Lai thinks so. Its ever so easy to say you want to do it but when it actually comes with paying a price, people think twice. This is actually a critical time when the US needs Taiwan needs to do something coz maybe by 2028, China will have mastered hypersonic missiles turning all of the US Navy and Aircraft into large paperweights. Perhaps thats why the US needs the Philippines so badly to sacrifice itself now.
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Some members ( I forgot his name) posted the real reason why the US is going roque and hysteria , it's not about China and Russia, it's all about losing its grip on its vassal, a Mafia Don is more afraid of losing the allegiance of his/her henchman than threat from the outside. So roping them in like building bases is an insurance policy of loyalty.
An perfect example is the Philippine, if the US is serious about containing China, they should arm us to the teeth with modern weapons free of charge like those of Israel, instead they supply us with second hand Vietnam era weapon designed for internal security, heck we can't even finished the 72 year conflict with the communist and the Muslim bandits.
They want us to stay poor and defenseless so that we come begging them for support in our defense and economy, that Reliance Mentality is a bedrock of American imperialism, the US learned it from the British during the opium war.
I guess that explains the obsession with Mob movies and other stuff by Martin Scorsese. It resonates so well with the west.
It unnerved Marcos so much that he become his number one fan overnight....lol
To expand on this, what the US doesn't want to understand is that the military balance between China vs the US has reached the point where the US is in Imperial Japan's position in 1941 vs China being what the US was in 1941, of which if the US starts a direct conflict with China they will end up like Imperial Japan (or even worse given all the countries they actively antagonized over the past 25 years).
They know it now bro, the Russian had shown them and the Houthis had just demonstrated their hopelessness, so I don't believed there will be a war in Taiwan. It's all about positioning for a possible deal with China, all this alliances the Coalition of the Willing is to show the Chinese that they were dealing with a strong opponent, it's all a mirage as the myth of US invisibility had been shattered.