those leaders are not in despair over Chinese military strength not because PLA is not strong enough, but because they don't know enough to realize that. it will take a war for people to see PLA's true strength because nobody knows, not even Xi himself.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Well, even if China raise her budgets to 3%, it still not enough. And not only that, it will take a toll to her economy. The problem is not the budget, but the number Allies that China has. You can't become a lone wolf forever. Sooner or later, you'll need friends. Because US also not doing lone wolf when they face China. They use Japan, Taiwan, and Philippine to do their bidding.
Geopolitics is different from Xianxia / Xianhuan that popular in China today. In the fantasy world, the Hero can over powered the enemies alone. He doesn't care about the number of enemies that he must to face. Because he knows that he'll win at the end. But Geopolitics today is different. You can't overpowered your enemies alone, without forcing your economy to the limit. Or else, you'll become like Uni Soviet long time ago.
So I don't think that China should to take care all her problem alone. Facing all the countries that picked by the US as their meat shield. And I think what Xi is doing is already good. Maybe not good enough, but he knows what he's doing. Specially when they have an ally who like to show off like Russia. China needs only to do behind the curtain in many things. And let Russia become the attention of the world.
The most important things right now are :
1. Weaken the United States with every opportunity that China have. From economy, resource, military, etc. Without having face to face with United States themselves.
2. Gather Allies, help the world. Don't give the United States more Allies to oppose China by doing stupid policies in the process.
3. Enforce the economy. Don't let China current economy power to be disturbed.
With current Geopolitics situation, I think there are opportunities that come to China from all over the world. So what China needs to do is to use every opportunities that present themselves with the best that China have. And also, of course, don't do stupid things in the process.
Why would China need allies, China has the same number of citizens as the Collective West combined and a greater industrial capacity.
And US will get very little help from EU against China, and the EU itself is already socially and economically damaged enough and unusable from dealing with Russia, they lose around 5% industrial power per year.
They are waiting for a chance to get freed from the US occupation which destroyed them economically, socially, politically, geopolitically, themselves, and they will jump ships as soon as US attacks and start losing against China during a hot war, not help them.
The US is 330M racially, ethnically, ideologically, politically, financially, divided population with falling economy, education, tech, etc.
They have falling subject ratings, falling IQ scores on top of them already being lower than China's, falling high-quality research papers and patent shares globally to China, etc.
Of course the US would need allies and focus outward so much, but China can afford to focus inwardly, and be more stable thanks to them already being so powerful on their own. And it's always better to be inwardly focused, than on the verge of civil war like the US.
I wouldn't say the US is in that bad of a situation. But they clearly have little prospect of continuing to be the so called hyperpower they claim to be. I don't think the realization of the deep shit situation in Europe has completely sunk in yet there either. Outside a few outlier countries like Hungary and Slovakia and some protests here and there. People still haven't started doing proper reflection on the current situation. How they got here and what to do about it. It makes little sense to have an antagonistic relation to your big neighbor right next door.
Nah, the US is in a very bad situation that is worsening.
We're gonna have the lowering of rates + QE by the fed this year (if they don't QE, no one is gonna buy US bonds with like 1-2% rates or below).
And so, that's gonna be another round of high inflation.
And then we have the election when all of that is ongoing (I say the chance of civil war in the next 5 to 10 years is above 50%).
Very big political and social divisions on historic levels on top of worsening economy and losing global geopolitical power. It sounds crazy, but the end is very near.
People who follow their politics, various social satisfaction and divisions polls and news (also patriotic-like social support rates for their own country), economic and financial indicators and global geopolitics should know all of this and don't be afraid to say it out loud.
This sounds like a perfect recipe for disaster. If we looked at history and similar empires of the past, the conclusion is only one.
At this point you can only argue how quickly they will collapse/disintegrate in some form. I my opinion I say that in the next 5-10 years it is even likely up to 90% likely.
And tbh China's allies are roughly as useful as US' allies in some metrics (mostly military ones). Which ironically is the opposite of how China itself squares up against US.
The more important thing about allies is that you have allies that actually do stuff for you instead of countries that cheer on the sidelines but don't do much. It's better to have a smaller number of less powerful but more active allies than to have a big bloc of fence sitters that just hang around.
People like you keeps grouping the Philippines as one of the countries ready to battle against China as part of the coalition of the idiots. But my question to you is this: What's the realistic contribution a country like the Philippines can actually bring to the table that it would make China worried sick? Does the PH possess a formidable, capable, well-trained, battle-hardened NAVY? Does the country possess the required and necessary INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY AND MANPOWER not to mention COFFERS to ramp up and match it's rhetoric and ambition against China? What is the historical basis of the Philippines prowess in battlefield both in land, sea, and air?
I can respect Taiwan, South Korea, and especially Japan for historical and contemporary reasons. Those 2 countries and wannabe country have large industrial base and know-how, they are known to be thinkers and doers and have acquainted themselves in the annals of combat. They have the technical expertise to buttress the U.S. strategy and can/will act as credible force multipliers against China. The Philippines on the other hand: A BIG FAT NO!!
My commentary is not to simply denigrate the island country, but to simply state the actual facts that's literally staring each and everyone of us in the face, we just have to be willing to actually see and accept what's in front of us.
Unless my reading and understanding of the Philippine military and contemporary history is wrong both from actual reading Philippine history and living in that country for over a decade I am intrigued to know what you know.
Philippines is a deadweight country. It will not add anything of substance to the American enterprise besides the stationing of troops, U.S. military assets (air and naval, strategic). All of which will be subjected to bombardment from every direction from the PLAN/PLAAF possibly PLAF and if needs be a ground invasion from the PLAGF.
Plus, the southern parts of the Philippines aren't enamored with the diktat of what they derisively refer to as "IMPERIAL MANILA." The people from the South (Mindanao) detest the northerners. The people that easily capitulated to the Spaniards, Americans, Japanese invasions, subjugation, and colonization. They are only great at one thing: loquaciousness.
philippines is aactually super important because it can provide bases, from which the US can threaten Chinese flanks or close off access to west pacific.
not saying that this will workout for the US, just saying that philippines' value is not in its strength but rather geography.
Multiple wide spanning undefended supply line is worse than having fewer, actually defensible supply lines.
If US were to actually invade China, they would almost certainly focus only on the Japan->eastern Chinese direction, as its there that they have supply line defenses at anywhere close to fight capable levels.
Trying to open a front in Philippines means they need a massive ton of resources just to parry attacks on the defenseless Filipinos instead of devoting them for an offensive.
If US invasion can't do fait accompli quickly over Taiwan and convince the Chinese public to avoid fully mobilizing, their plan is essentially doomed, not only are they at a medium and long term conventional disadvantage, but if China commits to defending Taiwan with war, nothing guarantees it will not start employing nukes if in a bad spot either.
Essentially, this is the Russo-Ukrainian war all over, except this time Russia has 1/4th the population of Ukraine and 70% of the economy. And also Ukraine has nukes. So if US takeover in Taiwan doesn't follow the Crimea pattern of the other nation just giving up without a fight, the only outcomes are indefinite war, nukes if the defender gets too pressed into a corner, white peace or invaders being repelled.