Taiwan still have 2nm which barred Cuba treatment. After china get EUV or graphene chip tech, Taiwan will get cuba'd.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Why are people so obsessed with the idea of Cuba style embargo? I’m always of the opinion that the ruling elite should be punished, not the average people, which embargoes actually impact most heavily.
Beijing can already do whatever they want, the 2nm is China's technology. It's companies registered and operating in China.
The politicians can order them to set up somewhere else other than Taiwan, if it was an issue of urgent national security.
Cuba is an inappropriate comparison because whatever is between US and Cuba is an issue of geopolitical argument between 2 national entities.
Whereas China is trying to control a delicate internal situation, it is more comparable to the situation of Israel and the West bank. Going in with soldiers IS an option that they shouldn't take off the table. Cutting off everything is also an option that must remain. But any such options can (like you see in the west bank) create a different and potentially not advantageous change in local attitude.
Balancing national defense and avoiding local discontent is the name of the game.
To be fair, this is the least impact with high probability to get reunification. Obsessed with embargoes is far better than obsessed with using force.
The semi tools aren't in full supply chain yet. So china can't do it. My though on embargoes is cut Taiwan off global trade but still allow Chinese company to trade via giving license. This will make Taiwan rely on china even more and also hurts economy at the same time.
Taiwan tries to do way too much. they say they will stop PLA on the sea, on the beach, and now in the cities. fact is they dont have enough manpower to do all these at the same time. if your army is defeated on the beach, then sorry dont expect it to orderly withdraw to a city and put up a competent defense.
Reminds me of something my family said they heard on a recent trip in Taiwan, roughly translated of course
"Maybe if the DPP and US just shut up, the mainland will just leave us alone!"
The Pelosi trip was a great example, there was a real fear of something bad happening, and what would it have been for?
Ren Yi thinks a KMT victory is possible. Pekingnology did a . It would be a major upset, though.
Don't see it happening, TW domestic media is basically assuming Lai wins. China's moves towards ECFA is basically assuming Lai wins also. The US planning to send a delegation to Taipei is basically assuming Lai wins. I think nobody expects a KMT presidential victory at this point.