PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
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An interesting column article.
This author carefully collected professional publications from the ROC military:
It is obvious that they are analyzing and summarizing the experience of the Ukrainian war, attempting to turn cities into fortresses for hidden ground and air unit operations.
In the past, comics drawn by their official propaganda personnel mentioned the tactic of using underground garages to hide tanks. Now they are carefully counting the number of underground garages and tunnels that can be used.
In addition, they also mentioned the guerrilla tactics of the Ukrainians and listed some cases, but these cases were mostly actions aimed at assassinating loyalists.
Addendum:
The author also provided their own insights on the issue of supply. He is concerned about the risk of the enemy using FPVs to attack vulnerable supply convoys. He opposes destroying the domestic water supply on the island, as it will only cause difficulties for the supply of landing troops.
Due to the immense firepower, ammunition consumption is enormous. Therefore, if sufficient supplies are not provided (assuming that the enemy destroyed port facilities and used sunken ships to block the port at the beginning of the war), it will be impossible to launch a sustained and strong offensive. The enemy will have sufficient time to reorganize their forces and build fortifications, and the war will become a stalemate similar to the Ukrainian war.
Unfortunately, I am not aware of the calculation method for this author's data. According to the author's statistics, transporting supplies through the beach without a port resulted in an effective supply of approximately 7000 tons per day. And these supplies can only support an inefficient attack of 100000 people and their support forces for six hours a day.
The author believes that the worst thing is that the resistance will of Taiwanese civilians is rising due to the impact of the Hong Kong incident, COVID-19 and the Ukrainian war. The reason is very clear, they cannot agree with the excessively harsh policies currently adopted by the mainland government. This means that civilians will actively provide intelligence and supply support to defenders.
According to his estimation, the defenders' ammunition and supplies were sufficient to sustain them for at least a month, buying enough time for Western military intervention and maritime blockade.
——I personally think his viewpoint has some value, but it is obviously too pessimistic.
This special article is an analysis of the military simulation of CSIS, which mercilessly refutes all optimistic views that "war will end quickly". He believes that if the Taiwanese army engages in street warfare, it may take PLA 15-30 days to capture a city.
I lack the ability to translate long articles, so friends who understand Chinese need to read them on their own.
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Don't worry too much.
The PLA has been researching how to fight 巷战 for quite a while.
I recommend seeing some of the videos of this person's live streams.
【兵临城下，如何打巷战？【深度解析】TomCat团座20231025直播节选-哔哩哔哩】
TLDR: Yes, if the ROC military is able to perform and does 巷战, it would slow things down, but essentially doesn't change the inevitable fact that China would take full control of China (the process would take longer and be more bloody).
Also, not Tldr of video (it's very good about 巷战), but overall about if they were to implement it.
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All those are very vulnerable to MRLS and UAV from the Mainland, and it won't help if Mainland simply decide to blockade the island.
And before you mention the USA, the USN won't do a thing, since if they interfere the US will be pushed out of Asia as China has military superiority over the US within 4000km of the Mainland.
Its like half-life 2
This thing is written by high schoolers, right? They don’t know PLAAF has AWACs?
How is the firepower of the air force and army asserted in these estimates? Because those are the most crucial tools in Chinese national defense, to supply a pacifying force is only the mop up operation so to say.
Taiwan houses about 20 million people. Principally, they're almost all focused in 6 large urban regions on it's western coast, each of these are comparable in size to Gaza and can conceivably be turned into urban fortresses.
However, PLA also has over 10x as many modern multiroles as IDF, in addition to 176+ heavy bombers and 210+ 5th gens. The difference is even more lopsided in artillery units and UAVs.
Assuming the performance of air forces in Gaza as sufficient, we see that about 1000 munitions per day needed to be expanded. For China, which faces 6 such battles in parallel, a rate of 6000 daily munitions must be sustained. To me at least, that seems entire achievable and even a very low estimate.
Furthermore, once an urban fortress is besieged, it cannot send support to the other 5, except by inefficient methods such as tunnels or by foot at night. The more degraded the cities are, the less they can fight as one unit, allowing PLA to focus much higher firepower temporarily on 1 city in order to open up routes for government troops.
It only comes down to calculation of matching targets to platforms, and the logistics to keep platforms firing.
The whole scenario assumes the navy and some portions of air force will not directly participate, as they may be busy enforcing lockdown and preventing foreigners from taking advantage of the vulnerable situation in China to attack.
In conclusion, while the national security situation in China can be described as generally safe, the individual safety of Chinese on Taiwan cannot be guaranteed, if there is a conflict.
And your A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT the SUPPOSED EFFICIENCY AND EFFICACY OF THE ROC MILITARY and people.
And your A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT the SUPPOSED EFFICIENCY AND EFFICACY OF THE ROC MILITARY and people.
The ultimate goal and core objectives of the CPC/PLA and many Chinese mainland people that ought to include yourself is TO AVOID WAR IF AT ALL POSSIBLE OR CAN BE AVOIDED whilst taking back Taiwan into the fold. But as you have been able to see, analyze, and judge for yourself, the western alliance and proud western hanjian willing puppets are working hard TO PROVOKE A VIOLENT CHINESE RESPONSE which is a part of the American overall led strategy of Chinese containment at all cost.
The U.S. Military and sane level leaders at all levels recognized that America can't and will not be able to overcome the 4 tyrannies of logistics (Time, distance, industry, water) and the most important requisite for a military victory, which is WILL OF THE CHINESE people to fight. The consolation they seek in my view is to destroy the MAINLAND'S ability to actually CONTROL, GOVERN/RUN the island accordingly without a possibility of resorting to the need of military tight control of the TAIWANESE population, many of whom will have resentment against the PLA for obvious reasons.
Such a scenario will be used to provide the usual talking points of FREEDOM LOVING TAIWANESE being enslaved at the point of the barrel (OPPRESSION) by the COMMUNIST TOTALITARIAN government. It'll be done in order to try and rally the GLOBAL SOUTH (GLOBAL NORTH IS ALREADY FIRMLY WITH AMERICA) to ensure or engineer the global boycott of Chinese products and services. Which is also why India is being heavily involved and pushed as the NEW SHINY ALTERNATIVE to China by the west. A country they assume so arrogantly that they control and contribute to their ultimate goal of destroying the CURRENT POLITICAL SYSTEM AND GOVERNANCE of China.
Unfortunately for America/West her many enemies and enormous GLOBAL POLICE FORCE which entails GLOBAL PERMANENT PRESENCE gets a vote and initiative/initiate a conflict that cannot be forsaken as the case with the current conflict in Ukraine and now with the ongoing conflict of epic HUMAN RIGHTS, DEATHS, AND DESTRUCTION between hummus and the country who must not be named.
The Taiwanese just like the Philippines are banking on for their LORD AND SAVIOR, AMERICA to literally fight and die for every last TAIWANESE AND FILIPINOS; these are the people that have romanticized with rose colored glasses their respective histories and place America as the ultimate GOOD GUY AND GOD'S GIFT TO MANKIND.
That's A DELUSIONAL STRATEGY in my opinion nothing more, nothing less. As Ukraine has been able to show to those who are not blind, deaf, mute, and willing retarded a country can't overcome destruction and defeat against an INDUSTRIAL POWER/COMMODITY as the case with Russia. Hopium, copium and propagandist articles are not ACTUAL SUBSTITUTE FOR ON THE GROUND STUFF like Industrial capacity, steady supplies of arms, munitions, commodities for war etc. That WAR can't be won on SOCIAL MEDIA TROLL LIKE POSTS no matter how fanatical, and witty your tag lines are. That MODERN WAR is HELL and FAR MORE DESTRUCTIVE than anyone of China's lame enemies can and will appreciate or have started to appreciate as we all can witness primarily in Ukraine vs Russia followed by hummus and ISRL.
Most importantly, the west SEVERELY UNDERESTIMATE the WILL AND WILLINGNESS OF THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CHINESE PEOPLE TO DEFEND AND DIE FOR THEIR COUNTRY and TO ERASE WHAT'S BEEN ETCHED TO EVERY CHINESE ABOUT THE CENTURY OF HUMILIATION. China knows about war than any of the countries it'll fight against since its history is replete with countless wars, battles throughout its illustrious history. Last I checked, The Art of War by Sun Tzu was written by a Chinese and produced in China along with many other famous military theories. If a number of Chinese people dies from the potential conflict is the west going to expect China to be reasonable and not enraged? It's better to deal with a China that's willing to be reasoned with, rather than a China that's enraged and is no longer willing to negotiate and therefore will fight at all costs. God help us all, if that were to happen.
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I view things solely through a pessimistic lens, which is that Taiwan in its current form is a national security risk while it provides no benefits to the country at all.
Reconciliation must come from the side of the locals first. They are indirectly all guilty of supporting the KMT, by inaction if nothing else.
The mainland should take action against these armed groups as soon as possible, to eradicate the threat they pose. It's better to turn the whole island into a parking lot than to allow armed thugs following Wang Jingwei thought to run freely on it, harassing and destroying Chinese property wherever they go and emboldening foreign invaders.