PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Even IF the US - in 2030 - can penetrate the Chinese A2/AD complex of hundreds of destroyers and frigates with thousands of VLS cells and land based missiles, EW, sensors etc and can get to Taiwan how do they plan to save it?
As far as I can see there is only 2 options for them : interdict Chinese shipping and perform sorties on Chinese targets that are on Formosa however as I demonstrate below this is unrealistic.
Interdicting Chinese ships - They are going to be facing thousands of civilian cargo vessels and their anti ship munitions would have been exhausted from getting through the Chinese bubble of ships and J-20s. Not to mention that since the strait is only like 100 miles China will be able to shoot down a lot of those anti ship munitions with SAMs from the mainland. Since there are thousands of cheap replaceable civilian cargo vessels the US won't possess the magazine depth to destroy them meaning even if (there are strong doubts the US can do this in the first place) China's A2/AD complex is broken they won't be able to stop the flow of Chinese troops. US submarines would be useless in this scenario due to the lack of depth in the Taiwan strait.
Perform sorties on Chinese land targets on Formosa - The longest range US air to ground CAS munitions are all under 100km. This means that if the US wants to perform sorties on Formosa, F-35s/B21s will have to get *extremely* close to the PLA ground forces. A range where ground based SAMs on the mainland guided by AWACS networking can take them out. Not to mention that its likely that China should be able to have a higher precision fire prosecution rate due to having MLRS suicide piston drones and other pgms. This means that even if the F-35s aren't sent to their creator they won't be able to stop China's takeover Taiwan as China will be able to create more effects on Taiwan than the US can.
Does anyone have any idea of how else the US can stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan even if they can breakthrough the PLAN & PLAAF?
As far as I can see there is only 2 options for them : interdict Chinese shipping and perform sorties on Chinese targets that are on Formosa however as I demonstrate below this is unrealistic.
Interdicting Chinese ships - They are going to be facing thousands of civilian cargo vessels and their anti ship munitions would have been exhausted from getting through the Chinese bubble of ships and J-20s. Not to mention that since the strait is only like 100 miles China will be able to shoot down a lot of those anti ship munitions with SAMs from the mainland. Since there are thousands of cheap replaceable civilian cargo vessels the US won't possess the magazine depth to destroy them meaning even if (there are strong doubts the US can do this in the first place) China's A2/AD complex is broken they won't be able to stop the flow of Chinese troops. US submarines would be useless in this scenario due to the lack of depth in the Taiwan strait.
Perform sorties on Chinese land targets on Formosa - The longest range US air to ground CAS munitions are all under 100km. This means that if the US wants to perform sorties on Formosa, F-35s/B21s will have to get *extremely* close to the PLA ground forces. A range where ground based SAMs on the mainland guided by AWACS networking can take them out. Not to mention that its likely that China should be able to have a higher precision fire prosecution rate due to having MLRS suicide piston drones and other pgms. This means that even if the F-35s aren't sent to their creator they won't be able to stop China's takeover Taiwan as China will be able to create more effects on Taiwan than the US can.
Does anyone have any idea of how else the US can stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan even if they can breakthrough the PLAN & PLAAF?
If the war becomes a war between US and China, then it becomes Great War 3.0. Then China will most likely not Invade Taiwan. It will focus on Defeating US first before spending its energy on a Taiwan invasion.
Instead of invading Taiwan, the focus will be destroying US forces in Okinawa, Guam and eventually invade those places if needed to stop US from using those places as a platform to attack China. For US also, stopping Taiwan invasion will be secondary. The main goal will be destroying China's military capability for good.
Which means striking Chinese forces in Sea, Air and Land and also destroying China's military production capacity, blockading China's trade to force China to capitulate into some kind of humiliating treaty that will curtail China's production. If they sense weakness, they will even hope to cause some kind of internal revolution that leads to CCP being forced out of power by a pro-US government or a civil war that causes China to be broken up into pieces.
China's goal will also be complete withdrawal of US forces from the first island Chain, Forcing some kind of regime change in Japan, Korea, Phillipines to have a pro-China government. Complete end of US influence in those countries followed by Chinese presence will be the larger goal.
If China manages to defeat US and destroy its capability and force them to withdraw only then they will think about invading Taiwan. But I think by then Taiwan will probably surrender without needing invasion. Entire basis of Taiwan's fighting will depends on Western Worship and US backing. If US itself withdraws, Taiwan will lose all will to fight.
So, lets not kid ourselves, this will not be a limited war. It will be a total war.
Instead of invading Taiwan, the focus will be destroying US forces in Okinawa, Guam and eventually invade those places if needed to stop US from using those places as a platform to attack China. For US also, stopping Taiwan invasion will be secondary. The main goal will be destroying China's military capability for good.
Which means striking Chinese forces in Sea, Air and Land and also destroying China's military production capacity, blockading China's trade to force China to capitulate into some kind of humiliating treaty that will curtail China's production. If they sense weakness, they will even hope to cause some kind of internal revolution that leads to CCP being forced out of power by a pro-US government or a civil war that causes China to be broken up into pieces.
China's goal will also be complete withdrawal of US forces from the first island Chain, Forcing some kind of regime change in Japan, Korea, Phillipines to have a pro-China government. Complete end of US influence in those countries followed by Chinese presence will be the larger goal.
If China manages to defeat US and destroy its capability and force them to withdraw only then they will think about invading Taiwan. But I think by then Taiwan will probably surrender without needing invasion. Entire basis of Taiwan's fighting will depends on Western Worship and US backing. If US itself withdraws, Taiwan will lose all will to fight.
So, lets not kid ourselves, this will not be a limited war. It will be a total war.
Ground operation should be at the last stage of the war plan. Israel is fighting a smart war... Bomb everything. After most buildings and tunnels were destroyed, then send in ground operation. Everything is blown up, there is no place to hide. No need to fight an urban warfare or probably fight a limited urban warfare..
First China needs to take care of USN.
First China needs to take care of USN.
Lol they "save" it the same way Russians are "saving" Kiev and Odessa. Why use language that defends the aggressor?
Anyways, it's not enough for US to be able to bomb China's periphery, they also need to be able to sustain a credible logistics line for the invasion force. That's much much more difficult.
China will work by destroying US & US aligned infrastructure and depots. And why then not start with the closest US positions from the KMT in Taiwan? So no, they do not need to destroy rest of USN first before destroying US' incursion into China. In fact, the priority would be to ensure a succesful counteroffensive as early as possible, as it will greatly hurt US morale/momentum while allowing China to push up weapons closer to Japan.
In the starting weeks, China would focus on keeping US incursion units out of Taiwan, while bombing the rebels with 100 000s of fires per day, only hitting more faraway US bases (which are much more expensive to strike) on a more sporadic basis, unless large columns of US forces fuck up and get within missile spam range.
Once the immediate threat inside China is taken out, which ensures the relative safety of the for China by far most vulnerable group of civilians in the conflict (those living in Taiwan), they can move on towards destroying Japanese infrastructure in earnest and eventually counterinvade wherever US is using as staging ground.
At that point, China would also have entered higher mobilization. Earlier in the war, it's harder for China to sustain huge amount of fires at further away targets.
Ko picked up Presidential form. It looks like the end of any Ko-Hou collaboration and also any chance of victory either candidates. It seems inevitable that Lai will win.
Ko is essentially Taiwanese Trump. He is erratic and has a lot of Ego. There was no way he would be subordinate to a KMT president.
For Kmt, being the grand old party of China, being a subordinate to the puny Ko is simply a non-starter. They compromised hoping that Ko will agree to being a VP rather than losing. But its obvious that Ko would keep his independent image intact.
So, in the end, Lai will win and China will have to continue to keep up pressure against Taiwan.
Ko is essentially Taiwanese Trump. He is erratic and has a lot of Ego. There was no way he would be subordinate to a KMT president.
For Kmt, being the grand old party of China, being a subordinate to the puny Ko is simply a non-starter. They compromised hoping that Ko will agree to being a VP rather than losing. But its obvious that Ko would keep his independent image intact.
So, in the end, Lai will win and China will have to continue to keep up pressure against Taiwan.
if AR becomes a pacific war, China will still have to concentrate on Taiwan initially to neutralize all of its anti-air and anti-ship assets. as well as all of its sensors. otherwise China loses home court advantage against the US.