PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Biscuits · Aug 13, 2023

Inque said:
It's often said that an invasion of Taiwan would make D-Day look like child's play. Is there any truth to this? D-Day involved landing over 150,000 troops. Does China have the logistical ability to replicate this? Are 150,000 troops even sufficient to take Taiwan?

Why would China need to replicate D-Day? It's America who has to do it, but on steroids. China just needs to hold it's defensive lines indefintely.

The most important factor if Taiwan can be taken or not isnt how many troops America can land per se, but if US can keep them supplied in an island province that's surrounded by Chinese platforms and fires.

Generously speaking, it would take about 2 weeks for an encircled force to run out of basic supplies once their stores have been destroyed. With Beijing hitting 10 000 to 100 000 aim points a day once the civil war resumes, assuming a signficant portion of misses, I would estimate it takes 2 weeks to deplete the KMT stores and occupied infrastructure.

That gives the US a timer of 4 weeks to conduct a succesful landing, any longer and the encirclement closes on the KMT forces they rely on as a vanguard. At that point, even 150 000 well supplied US marines will not be enough to take Taiwan.

Bellum_Romanum · Aug 13, 2023

Taiwanese TVBS report on a potential PRC vs ROC fight with American possible involvement.

AndrewS · Aug 13, 2023

Biscuits said:
Why would China need to replicate D-Day? It's America who has to do it, but on steroids. China just needs to hold it's defensive lines indefintely.

The most important factor if Taiwan can be taken or not isnt how many troops America can land per se, but if US can keep them supplied in an island province that's surrounded by Chinese platforms and fires.

Generously speaking, it would take about 2 weeks for an encircled force to run out of basic supplies once their stores have been destroyed. With Beijing hitting 10 000 to 100 000 aim points a day once the civil war resumes, assuming a signficant portion of misses, I would estimate it takes 2 weeks to deplete the KMT stores and occupied infrastructure.

That gives the US a timer of 4 weeks to conduct a succesful landing, any longer and the encirclement closes on the KMT forces they rely on as a vanguard. At that point, even 150 000 well supplied US marines will not be enough to take Taiwan.

100K aimpoints per day for Taiwan is overkill.

If you do a napkin calculation, my guestimate is 30K aimpoints in terms of infrastructure, military vehicles and then some over targets.

So even 20K aimpoints per day would likely still be overkill.

And I don't see an actual China-Taiwan war as inevitable.

As the years go on, it becomes more and more obvious to Taiwan, what the outcome of an actual China-Taiwan war will be.

aqh · Aug 13, 2023

For Taiwan itself the PHL 191/16 can do most of the work creating a conducive environment for landing by destroying the isr system that would affect amphib ships the most and most weapons on open terrain. Pre amphib landing they will be blockaded as China establishes air and naval superiority in the 1IC. If the US doesn't have anything more than a token force west of Guam there is a chance that Taiwan just surrenders beforehand.

Inque · Aug 13, 2023

Biscuits said:
Why would China need to replicate D-Day? It's America who has to do it, but on steroids. China just needs to hold it's defensive lines indefintely.

The most important factor if Taiwan can be taken or not isnt how many troops America can land per se, but if US can keep them supplied in an island province that's surrounded by Chinese platforms and fires.

Generously speaking, it would take about 2 weeks for an encircled force to run out of basic supplies once their stores have been destroyed. With Beijing hitting 10 000 to 100 000 aim points a day once the civil war resumes, assuming a signficant portion of misses, I would estimate it takes 2 weeks to deplete the KMT stores and occupied infrastructure.

That gives the US a timer of 4 weeks to conduct a succesful landing, any longer and the encirclement closes on the KMT forces they rely on as a vanguard. At that point, even 150 000 well supplied US marines will not be enough to take Taiwan.

China needs to land troops on the island to take it. The US is not going to prioritize landing troops on Taiwan but will focus on defeating the PLAN and PLAAF. If that is accomplished, the US won't need to land any.

Biscuits · Aug 13, 2023

Inque said:
China needs to land troops on the island to take it. The US is not going to prioritize landing troops on Taiwan but will focus on defeating the PLAN and PLAAF. If that is accomplished, the US won't need to land any.

Yes US would need to focus on breaching the lines. But China also just needs to focus on holding them.

China can mop up the encircled KMT troops easily if US doesn't manage to break through and land with troops/supplies.

In order for US to conduct a succesful invasion, they need boots on the ground and the supply chains to feed them.

BoraTas · Aug 13, 2023

Inque said:
It's often said that an invasion of Taiwan would make D-Day look like child's play. Is there any truth to this? D-Day involved landing over 150,000 troops. Does China have the logistical ability to replicate this? Are 150,000 troops even sufficient to take Taiwan?

No. There is not any truth to that. It is a conclusion reached by people who have a certain set of assumptions. A lot of the "amphibious landings are so impossible" stuff is an echo chamber. The said assumptions are

1- Taiwan can field millions of soldiers
2- China would need 6-to-1 overmatch in numbers
3- Everything would have to be brought very fast

None of these are true. Taiwanese ground forces are remarkably small and unsophisticated for a nation that is supposed to be preparing for decades. It would be enough if China lands 200k men in 20 days, which is easily possible.

zhangjim · Aug 13, 2023

Bellum_Romanum said:
Taiwanese TVBS report on a potential PRC vs ROC fight with American possible involvement.

Although the content of the video is long, most of it has little value.
The main content of the video is to explain the military forces and strategic intentions of Chinese Mainland, as well as the current shortcomings of Taiwan.
Of course, people's intelligence levels are roughly the same, and they have indeed come up with some good ideas, such as valuing the safety of low orbit satellites and submarine cables.
But the rest is all worthless content, such as hoping to establish a defense line on Highway 61 or developing a new type of drone.

The video discusses a serious question: is it worth engaging in brutal street battles in future wars. Similarly, due to a series of failures and setbacks in Hong Kong's governance, Taiwan has little willingness to accept the peaceful reunification conditions proposed by Beijing.
This video can be seen to be based on the position of the opposition party, so there are many criticisms of the current DPP's measures in power.
They are well aware of the huge gap in the current balance of power between the two sides, but they have shown a mentality of "not easily surrendering".
Add: The comment section of the video is the most interesting. Those who use traditional Chinese strongly criticize the video as belittling Taiwan's defense capability. They claim that Chinese Mainland can only use the strength of two war zones to attack, and the combat effectiveness of Chinese Mainland, which is subject to semiconductor supply sanctions, will inevitably be severely weakened. Taiwan will use advanced weapons provided by the West to defeat invaders, just like the Ukrainians

FairAndUnbiased · Aug 13, 2023

zhangjim said:
Although the content of the video is long, most of it has little value.
The main content of the video is to explain the military forces and strategic intentions of Chinese Mainland, as well as the current shortcomings of Taiwan.
Of course, people's intelligence levels are roughly the same, and they have indeed come up with some good ideas, such as valuing the safety of low orbit satellites and submarine cables.
But the rest is all worthless content, such as hoping to establish a defense line on Highway 61 or developing a new type of drone.

The video discusses a serious question: is it worth engaging in brutal street battles in future wars. Similarly, due to a series of failures and setbacks in Hong Kong's governance, Taiwan has little willingness to accept the peaceful reunification conditions proposed by Beijing.
This video can be seen to be based on the position of the opposition party, so there are many criticisms of the current DPP's measures in power.
They are well aware of the huge gap in the current balance of power between the two sides, but they have shown a mentality of "not easily surrendering".
Add: The comment section of the video is the most interesting. Those who use traditional Chinese strongly criticize the video as belittling Taiwan's defense capability. They claim that Chinese Mainland can only use the strength of two war zones to attack, and the combat effectiveness of Chinese Mainland, which is subject to semiconductor supply sanctions, will inevitably be severely weakened. Taiwan will use advanced weapons provided by the West to defeat invaders, just like the Ukrainians

How does semiconductor supply chain sanctions stop bombs and guns immediately? It doesn't help them whatsoever. Unless they regard themselves as just pawns of some country's empire, none of that helps them in the immediate moment.

duskseeker · Aug 13, 2023

AndrewS said:
100K aimpoints per day for Taiwan is overkill.

If you do a napkin calculation, my guestimate is 30K aimpoints in terms of infrastructure, military vehicles and then some over targets.

So even 20K aimpoints per day would likely still be overkill.

And I don't see an actual China-Taiwan war as inevitable.

As the years go on, it becomes more and more obvious to Taiwan, what the outcome of an actual China-Taiwan war will be.

just reserve the 80k aimpoints for the Philippines. also deplete their pagpag stores.

PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Biscuits

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Bellum_Romanum

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AndrewS

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aqh

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Inque

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Biscuits

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BoraTas

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zhangjim

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FairAndUnbiased

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duskseeker

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