“No one really knows what the top military or political leaders really think. Winning or losing a war is almost impossible to predict because of its countless variables. Much of it is out of control.”
My friend, the above sentence is meaningless nonsense, because it can be applied to any event and any situation.
"The Chinese military is also largely untested in modern warfare."
I can also say that no army in the world has experienced such short-term large-scale paramilitary operations of the same scale as the catastrophic flood rescue in 1998 and the Wenchuan earthquake rescue in 2008. During the catastrophic flood, the People's Liberation Army and the Armed Police Force successively mobilized 66 divisions, brigades, and the Armed Police Corps with a total of more than 300,000 troops, 1,170 boats, and more than 200 aircraft. By the end of the flood fight, the People's Liberation Army and the Armed Police had invested a total of 4.3322 million troops, organized more than 5 million militia reserve troops, used 236,800 vehicles, 37,500 boats, and 1,289 aircraft and helicopters. During the Wenchuan Earthquake, the People's Liberation Army and the Armed Police Force dispatched a total of 160,000 officers and soldiers to participate in the earthquake relief work in Sichuan.
It is a pity that it is impossible to quantify whether civilians can bear what kind of losses. But a valid reference is the mobilization capacity of governments and civilians during a pandemic. On the premise of not dispatching the army, hundreds of cities across the country have implemented closed management for a week or several weeks, involving hundreds of millions of people. There have been no energy supply and food supply disasters and almost no group riots in the process. I think you should have a basic awe of this ability to mobilize.
In addition, regarding the level of civilian support for the war, I have met all kinds of people, people who may be dissatisfied with the central government of the Communist Party, people who hate the local government, and people who yearn for the United States and Europe, but my In my memory, I really have never encountered anyone who opposed Taiwan's belonging to China. If a person opposes Taiwan as part of China, he will also die socially in peaceful times. If war is truly inevitable, half of China's residents will probably sincerely donate part of their income to the Taiwan Strait war. The number of private donations in the short term may not be less than 50 billion US dollars. China is a country under the dictatorship of the Communist Party. The grassroots organizations of the Communist Party have penetrated into all walks of life. Enterprises and various government departments will enter wartime mode in a very short period of time.
In 1945 during World War II, US military spending accounted for 37% of GDP. China's current military spending accounts for 1.7% of GDP. If the war really reaches the point where the world war cannot be reversed, it will not be too difficult for China to increase the proportion of military expenditure by 10 or 20 times. Excluding the industrial capacity and raw materials lost due to the war, imagine what it would be like to expand the equipment that the Chinese army currently possesses by five or eight times.
The most important thing is that the name of the Chinese army is called the "Chinese Liberation Army", and the biggest purpose of their existence is to complete the reunification of the motherland and protect territorial integrity. They were developed from a very small but well-disciplined "Puritan" army. They have a solid record of military discipline and organizational skills. They cannot have tattoos, drink alcohol, commit crimes, prostitutes, drugs, or engage in business. Even in recent years, their degree of execution of orders, fighting will and fighting literacy have been tested in the border conflict with India.
Most importantly, the PLA is widely respected at home. They don't carry guns every time they do a major civilian rescue operation. People who suffer from floods, earthquakes, cold waves, typhoons and even social injustice and local government injustice will regard them as "saviors". This kind of military-civilian relationship is unimaginable for the United States, Russia, Japan, South Korea and mainstream European countries.
Never underestimate China's war potential. We hope for peace across the Taiwan Strait because we fear our own power far more than we fear the enemy's power.
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