PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Hood_Rat said:

It won't but you act as if Blinken or Jake Sullivan care if the average American family starves. As long as the quality of life for the American elite is preserved, then it as President Bush II said "mission accomplished"

China may have a "win-win" mentality but the lose-lose mentality that American policy elites have taken basically only is focused on the perception that their opponents suffer more. And a total shut down of trade as US naval assets destroy all non-US shipping certainly hurts China much more than the US.

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That would be impossible for the US elites to maintain which includes the military as well. The global supply chain imploding does not leave the US unscathed from huge economic consequences. Those elites cannot hide behind their ivory towers if pension funds, social security nets, internal stability, etc all goes up in flames. Neither will the military not have an endless headache over supply chain issues when the MIC and their contractors start disappearing by the thousands.

Has PLAN got one of their aircraft carriers (supposedly "Shandong") 200 nautical miles from Taiwan, I've seen a telegram source mention this.












source:

China to inspect ships in Taiwan Strait, Taiwan says won't cooperate​

China's Fujian maritime safety administration launched a three-day special joint patrol and inspection operation in the central and northern parts of the Taiwan Strait that includes moves to board ships, it said on its WeChat account.

The move comes amid heightened tensions between China and Taiwan, with U.S. House Speaker Kevin Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in California on Wednesday, becoming the most senior U.S. figure to meet a Taiwanese leader on U.S. soil in decades.

The maritime safety authority in the southeastern Chinese province said on Wednesday the operation included "on-site inspections" on direct cargo ships and construction vessels on both sides of the Taiwan Strait "to ensure the safety of vessel navigation and ensure the safe and orderly operation of key projects on water".

Taiwan's Transport Ministry's Maritime and Ports Bureau said in a statement late Wednesday said it has lodged a strong protest with China about the move.

It said it has notified relevant shipping operators that if they encounter such requests from China they should refuse them and immediately notify Taiwan's coast guard to render assistance.

"If the mainland side insists on taking one-sided actions, it will create obstacles to normal exchanges between the two sides. We will be forced to take corresponding measures," it added, without giving details.

Areas covered by the operation include the Pingtan Taiwan direct container route, the "small three links" passenger route, the Taiwan Strait vessel customary route, the densely navigable areas of commercial and fishing vessels, and areas with frequent illegal sand mining activities.

The "small three links" passenger route refers to boat routes between Taiwan's Kinmen and Matsu islands which sit opposite China and Chinese cities.

The fleet, a joint special operation with East China Sea Rescue Bureau and the East China Sea Navigation Support Center, will continue to carry out cruise inspections in the central and northern parts of the Taiwan Strait over the next two days.

In an actual AR situation could this be how the CSGs will be used? Before go time you send them all out to beyond the 1st island chain and take up position east of Taiwan to form a barrier.

It's rather dangerous position yes, but it offers the greatest freedom for carrier operation rather than let them be bottled up inside the island chain. What are weapons for if you don't dare to risk them anyway.

Temstar said:

In an actual AR situation could this be how the CSGs will be used? Before go time you send them all out to beyond the 1st island chain and take up position east of Taiwan to form a barrier.

It's rather dangerous position yes, but it offers the greatest freedom for carrier operation rather than let them be bottled up inside the island chain. What are weapons for if you don't dare to risk them anyway.

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It's a position inviting an all-out Mahanian naval action - because either someone comes out, or nothing will reach the besieged Island.
Yes, it can. But PLAN has to think very seriously if it is ready for this particular type of action.

Temstar said:

View attachment 110553
In an actual AR situation could this be how the CSGs will be used? Before go time you send them all out to beyond the 1st island chain and take up position east of Taiwan to form a barrier.

It's rather dangerous position yes, but it offers the greatest freedom for carrier operation rather than let them be bottled up inside the island chain. What are weapons for if you don't dare to risk them anyway.

Click to expand...

While CAP would be there, idk if it makes sense to put carriers so far forward.

The eastern side of Taiwan lacks infrastructure and is almost all mountains. That means the effort China needs to expand to defend that coastline is less than one might think.

Carriers are likely better off around the southern tip of the island, where they can recieve cover from the mainland and at the same time send planes to hit incoming enemies from the east.

Most of the important infrastructure on Taiwan is in the south and west. The west is unreachable for Washington's troops, so what would likely happen is a large naval battle along the China-Philippines corridor, the Luzon strait.

That is, if the invading forces manages to go all the way there without being destroyed by incoming long range weapons.

Temstar said:

View attachment 110553
In an actual AR situation could this be how the CSGs will be used? Before go time you send them all out to beyond the 1st island chain and take up position east of Taiwan to form a barrier.

It's rather dangerous position yes, but it offers the greatest freedom for carrier operation rather than let them be bottled up inside the island chain. What are weapons for if you don't dare to risk them anyway.

Click to expand...

Seems like it will needlessly expose Chinese carrier and it's escorts to American/Japanese submarines, interdiction of shipping and supply can just as easily be done from the other side, while still remaining safe in AD and ASW heavy waters.

Temstar said:

View attachment 110553
In an actual AR situation could this be how the CSGs will be used? Before go time you send them all out to beyond the 1st island chain and take up position east of Taiwan to form a barrier.

It's rather dangerous position yes, but it offers the greatest freedom for carrier operation rather than let them be bottled up inside the island chain. What are weapons for if you don't dare to risk them anyway.

Click to expand...

Yes and no.

Will PLAN CSGs be operating in the western pacific east of Taiwans during AR? Yes.

Will the PLAN pre-deploy its carriers east of Taiwan to avoiding getting bottled up west of the 1st island chain? No.

An non-negotiable pre-requisite for China proactively choosing to trigger AR and for PLAN carriers to operate east of Taiwan during AR is for China to be able to utterly smash the 1st island chain in the opening hours of AR to enjoy total battlespace dominance there and enjoy total freedom of movement with minimal risks to its assets.

If China cannot guarantee being able to break the 1st island chain with minimal time and effort, it should not be thinking about proactively triggering AR as it does not have the pre-requisite power. If it’s a reactive AR due to Taiwan/US actions, then there is no talk of China pre-positioning assets.

I think in the event of a proactive triggering of AR, one of the PLA’s first strategic objective would be to force the US to show its cards in terms of whether or not they are prepared to go all in on this hand. That means no pussyfooting around and being bold and brazen, but short of doing a Pearl Harbour 2.0 first attack.

So expect a massively expansive and obnoxious special military zone to be declared over Taiwan and most of the western pacific well into the second island chains, with a simple and no nonsense approach to enforcement. Anything coming within XXX miles of the boundary of the SMZ will be warned to change course immediately, come within XX miles and you will be intercepted. Civilian ships and planes that enter the zone will be boarded/escorted to a mainland airport and detained for as long as China feels like it. Failure to comply will lead to immediate use of overwhelming deadly force. Anything military that breaches the SMZ will be shot down/sunk without exception.

The SMZ will cover many Japanese islands, and they will be told to suck it up or declare war.

The PLA will need to keep its word and destroy the inevitable Japanese and American probes into the SMZ. That will force the Americans and Japanese to either show their cards per China’s timetable and give the PLA the go ahead to obliterate US forced deployed assets and massively degrade Japanese military and industrial capabilities in the opening stages of the war, or force them to stay entirely out of the war entirely.

Again, having the power to absolutely curbstomp the forward deployed US military forces and Japan would be a pre-requisite for proactive AR.

China will use a maritime-militia-in-motion to constantly force unwanted maneuvers by US-led forces. After the first shot is fired (most likely by US-led forces, remember the USS Vincennes -- Capt Rogers wasn't the USN's only trigger-happy CO) I believe the Hughes/Tangredi "Bigger Fleets Win" salvo equations will become primary with air power mostly staying home. The safest place to be in the upcoming kinetic US-China conflict (which will be at the edge of the First Island Chain) is Taiwan.

A large show of force from the Chinese side in reaction to Tsai's US tour, but I don't think it is sufficient to deter Taiwan. In fact this current reaction is more muted then when Pelosi visited Taiwan. China should consider economic sanctions as further steps.