PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

FairAndUnbiased said:

how to sneak past hydrophone network strung from Kyushu to Okinawa to rest of the Ryukyus down to Phillipines? Once out there, MPAs from Guam, Diego Garcia and Australia will be swarming the chokepoints. P-8 has 8000 km range, far longer than hypersonics.

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where are these MPAs coming from? It will be getting there with a large flotilla. Is MPA going to be able to follow it when J-15s or J-35s are around?

And if we look past the first couple of days of a conflict, where are the MPAs going to fly from when all the US military bases get wiped out?

Why would China leave Diego Garcia or Tindal untouched?

The P-8A can fly 1,200nm, stay on station for four hours and return to base. With air-to-air refueling available – a capability that the P-3C lacks – the Poseidon can stay aloft for more than 20 hours, if necessary. The P-8A also has a nine-strong crew compared with the 11 crew members required by the Orion

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Reasonable operating range for P-8A is 1200nm fyi. Let's not overstate it's capabilities here.

Let's say a P-8A is 2500km away when 093/095 is detected and it cruises over at mach0.8 (reasonable number for 737-800). It would take 2 and half hours for it to just fly over. Now keep in mind that no Air Force can just detect something and scramble MPA right away. You have to make the decision to do so, plan out the missions, load fuel and munitions, brief your crew/pilots on the mission involved. all this takes time, could be several hours. If a PLAN nuclear sub has like 5 hours to move around, it can be 300 km away from its original spot. Seems like really hard and dangerous for P-8 to attempt this when it has no idea which direction nuclear sub might have moved to and it doesn't have an escort that can travel with it that far.

tphuang said:

Why would China leave Diego Garcia or Tindal untouched?

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I agree，any bases that are being used in a military conflict against China are targets of Chinese attack. Though I’m not sure whether China would launch preemptive attack to these base

tphuang said:

where are these MPAs coming from? It will be getting there with a large flotilla. Is MPA going to be able to follow it when J-15s or J-35s are around?

And if we look past the first couple of days of a conflict, where are the MPAs going to fly from when all the US military bases get wiped out?

Why would China leave Diego Garcia or Tindal untouched?

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Reasonable operating range for P-8A is 1200nm fyi. Let's not overstate it's capabilities here.

Let's say a P-8A is 2500km away when 093/095 is detected and it cruises over at mach0.8 (reasonable number for 737-800). It would take 2 and half hours for it to just fly over. Now keep in mind that no Air Force can just detect something and scramble MPA right away. You have to make the decision to do so, plan out the missions, load fuel and munitions, brief your crew/pilots on the mission involved. all this takes time, could be several hours. If a PLAN nuclear sub has like 5 hours to move around, it can be 300 km away from its original spot. Seems like really hard and dangerous for P-8 to attempt this when it has no idea which direction nuclear sub might have moved to and it doesn't have an escort that can travel with it that far.

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the chokepoint problem is the big one, they can just keep watch over the chokepoints. and is Diego Garcia within range?

FairAndUnbiased said:

the chokepoint problem is the big one, they can just keep watch over the chokepoints. and is Diego Garcia within range?

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You can possibly make the argument that they can keep watch over chokepoints like Malacca straits or some of these Indonesian archipelago areas, but you can also make the counterpoint that it makes it easier for China to also choke of incoming VA class.

More importantly, how are the MPAs going to interfere with PLAN operations in westpac? You can't use MPAs unless you can keep it safe. Shooting down P-8s with its large RCS is really easy.

Once you get past that first island chain (because MPAs won't be operating anywhere close to that), how are the Chinese SSNs going to get discovered in the middle of the Ocean? And if they do get detected from like 50 nm out by a Virginia class sub, it would still not be easy for that Virginia class sub to maintain tracking on it. And if the goal of the sub is to just get within certain distance of US military base, fire off hypersonic missiles and then scoot back to its base. What exactly is going to chase it down?

Let's say a Virginia class knows where 093B is when it shot its missiles but it's 50nm further out. How is VA boat going to catch up before 093B reaches protected area? Defending SSNs in the middle of an open ocean is hard.

Diego Garcia is 4400 km from Yunnan. Certainly missions you can task H-6 with conducting, although a little bit out of the way. With H-20, it would be obvious target in early stages of a conflict. If Myanmar allows China to operate from their base, it would be even easier operation to complete for something like H-6.

PanAsian said:

Hong Kong is a de-colonization project for China which involves giving the local authorities, elites, as well as population the opportunity for agency to manage themselves and handle problems. If there is resentment as to how the 2019 rioting was handled it should be towards Hong Kongers' own insufficient initiative and effort in taking action, including thinking through as to what is really happening, that is within their power to take.

Colonialism has beaten the slave mentality into Hong Kongers and they need to realize within themselves to break out of it. China's restrained behavior, not mimicking abusive Western colonialist strategy and tactics, is the only way to empower cities, countries, and individuals alike, who must decide for themselves to break out of bad habits they have been hazed into.

The same applies to the mentality of the Taiwan local authorities, elites, and population as to whether they trigger armed reunification or not.

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probably way off-topic, so I will not discuss it further.
suffice it to say that I respect this line of thinking taken from a cool distance and under the grand scheme of things.
but for those of us actually sitting on the frying pan, the perceptions, sentiments, and attitudes may not be the same.
good day.

tphuang said:

Diego Garcia is 4400 km from Yunnan. Certainly missions you can task H-6 with conducting, although a little bit out of the way. With H-20, it would be obvious target in early stages of a conflict. If Myanmar allows China to operate from their base, it would be even easier operation to complete for something like H-6.

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DF-26 stationed in Yunnan or Myanmar can also reach Diego Garcia.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

DF-26 stationed in Yunnan or Myanmar can also reach Diego Garcia.

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But to do it, China need to stabilize Myanmar first, so their DF-26 will be protected from Rebels.

Hugh White, who is also Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, is clear in his analysis:

“I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia’s support, could win a war with China over Taiwan.”

Maikeru said:

Hugh White, who is also Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, is clear in his analysis:

“I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia’s support, could win a war with China over Taiwan.”

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i remember him openly called for Australia neutrality instead of being US alliance, in a debate with Mearsheimer.

caohailiang said:

i remember him openly called for Australia neutrality instead of being US alliance, in a debate with Mearsheimer.

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The issue is that Mearsheimer thinks America will win because of its nuclear submarine advantage. That is outdated intel.
If Mearsheimer thinks America will loose, I don't think he will advocate for US intervention.

Keep in mind that while America not getting involved is damaging to its power in Asia. An outright loss would be catastrophic world wide.