PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
If you are arguing that US can do guerilla warfare with TEL, sure they can.

But the problem is how much damage this guerilla warfare can inflict and would it be meaningful amount to help win the war. Answer is no.

Think about PLARF's massive organization, training facilities maintenance falicities and pre-calibrated launching sites, that is how meaningful fire can be generated towards targets in westpac.

Some one-off TEL without proper support, like you suggested, can at best general some piecemeal fire to harass PLA targets, not to decisively destroy them.
I think for the US forces in a Taiwan conflict the main objective would not be the complete destruction of the Chinese forces, thats unrealistic and extremely costly for the US.

They can stop the occupation of Taiwan through attriting the transport fleets of the PLA.

Those seemingly isolated island based TELs would serve an important role in forcing the PLA to waste their long range strike capabilities to neutralize them first before being able to safely cross the strait using their transport fleets. Which would give time for the US to reinforce Taiwan or make Chinese long range air assets vulnerable to attack.

As long as those island launchers are standing, there will always be the risk of massed missile attacks on an attempted crossing and with the numbers of islands in the area, PLA could be playing wack a mole for a while.
 

caohailiang

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think for the US forces in a Taiwan conflict the main objective would not be the complete destruction of the Chinese forces, thats unrealistic and extremely costly for the US.

They can stop the occupation of Taiwan through attriting the transport fleets of the PLA.

Those seemingly isolated island based TELs would serve an important role in forcing the PLA to waste their long range strike capabilities to neutralize them first before being able to safely cross the strait using their transport fleets. Which would give time for the US to reinforce Taiwan or make Chinese long range air assets vulnerable to attack.

As long as those island launchers are standing, there will always be the risk of massed missile attacks on an attempted crossing and with the numbers of islands in the area, PLA could be playing wack a mole for a while.
i expect heavy destroyer escort to the convoys crossing the strait, which means no piecemeal AShm strike is expected to penetrate that air defence to sink any transport ships.

and i just dont see how a large column of missile launchers (and their c3) with the capability to generate fire bandwidth to penetrate 055/052d air defence would be left unmolested before cross strait transport start
 

bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
In the event of war, China could deploy tens of thousands of cheap ISR and heat signature decoy balloons (to confuse your enemies).

For underwater, deploy alot of sea mines and underwater ISR systems.

I believed ISR is higher priority than stealth. These massive swarm of balloons can detect B21 or F35. Once detected, its easy to shoot it down
 

zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
I was startled to see the title of the book, but suddenly realized that it was the army of Taiwan.
Their logistics maintenance is notoriously poor,the accounts were never carefully reconciled, and some officers would even bury excess parts instead of returning them, and those that were missing were borrowed from other units to meet inspections.

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tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
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Sea of Okhotsk is also being watched by ASW planes from Aleutian Islands, thanks to the old Cold War era legacy.

There's no easy solution. There's a reason that PLAN focused on SSKs in the past and did not pursue mass SSN/SSBN like Russia. Russia has the great blessing/curse of a natural bastion in the Arctic Ocean where the natural chokepoints of the Bering Strait and North Sea are easy to defend, and SSNs/SSBNs solve their problems of Arctic endurance. There are very few problems that PLAN of the past could solve with SSNs and even today it requires being able to just outright overpower enemies with mass surface and air based fires to punch a hole in enemy surveillance.

China has the curse of only a small natural bastion in Bohai and Gulf of Tonkin thanks to the relationship with Vietnam. China does not even fully control the Yellow Sea because of South Korea. If China lost North Korea in 1950, China would have literally no safe harbors. This is why whenever I see idiots talk about China abandoning North Korea I have to laugh. That's why the PLAN has to be relatively far stronger than the Soviet Navy or Royal Navy to exert the same maritime influence. Only the German Navy is more cursed.

Worse, China's geography also has no simple fixes other than 1. Even getting a base in North Korea just means putting toes in the Lake of Japan. Getting a base in Solomon Islands means that base is isolated. Getting a base in Thailand or even Singapore doesn't help, as there's still Diego Garcia and Andaman Islands on the other side of the strait, and Australia lurking nearby.

The 1 simple fix, of course, is getting Taiwan. It's open ocean out from Hualian. That's why Taiwan is a huge flashpoint despite having the characteristics of what would otherwise be a minor civil war.
Shouldn't be that hard for a fleet to get past first island chain with ssn. After that, how is us navy going to find Chinese nuclear subs in the middle of the ocean? Where are the mpas coming from?

Adding control of Taiwan really doesn't add that much additional freedom.

You can launch long range hypersonic attacks against Australian mpas and Diego Garcia. Once those get taken out, where are the mpa pressure coming from?

Nuclear subs are fast, with unlimited endurance. If you get one even in the improved la class acoustic performance, finding submerged ones in the middle of an ocean is really hard.
 

Jono

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well first of all, if you think there's anything China can do to stop the provocations from the US, you're seriously reading the situation wrong. US provocations and attempts to undermine China will only continue and increase in frequency and intensity, and the only thing China can do is to neutralize them as best as it can.

As for HK, do you have such a short memory as to forget the massive protests against the extradition law? By allowing the riots to go on, the Central Government achieved the following objectives:
  1. Successfully converted millions of HK residents who would otherwise still have believed Western propaganda.
  2. Exposed the hypocrisy of Western media to both Mainland citizens and overseas diaspora.
  3. Uncovered CIA funding networks and destroyed them.
  4. Uprooted NED-funded HK media corporations such as Apple Daily and dismantled their operations.
HK was truly a masterful stroke of Taichi, turning the US attempt at color revolution into an opportunity to severely degrade US influence in HK and turn HK residents into patriots almost overnight.
You are too optimistic in your assessment.
I live in HK, so I can say a thing or two about the situation in HK.
the National Security Law seemed to have worked because there was the local PLA garrison, and the PLA units across the border ready to enforce it, meaning the presence of force did its part to ensure the effectiveness of the NSL.
the CIA-backed rioters saw that the Central Government meant business and fled. So it is essential to show your determination, and as early as possible for that matter.
Many of us still feel that Beijing has acted too late, it should have nipped the rebellion in the bud. Now the community is divided as the problem was allowed to drag on for too long, the politicians were hamstrung, the police force demonized and demoralized, the rioters were emboldened, and many school and college kids were enticed by romance and fashion to join in their ranks and many of their parents were convinced or forced to align with their children in a bid to stay together as a family.
We have close to 10000 people arrested for taking part in the rioting, though to varying degrees of involvement and violence. close to 200000 people have left the enclave. Those that are remaining ARE HARBORING RESENTMENT and simmering under the surface, and who knows how many people belong to this hidden group! I'd call that a pyrrhic victory for Beijing,
The damage to the divided community is huge and difficult to repair. It may be quiet now in HK on the surface, but I am afraid it is only a superficial calm.....
in conclusion, as painful as it is, I feel that Beijing should act promptly on the Taiwan issue, don't let the USA meddle too deeply, and supply too much weaponry. China may feel the time is on its side, but the USA knows it too, and so is stirring up trouble across Asia now. There won't be the "perfect" time per se to take action, just the most opportunistic time.
again, time to build up Huangyan Shoal and take the initiative, don't put yourself at the whims and mercy of USA-PH.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Shouldn't be that hard for a fleet to get past first island chain with ssn. After that, how is us navy going to find Chinese nuclear subs in the middle of the ocean? Where are the mpas coming from?

Adding control of Taiwan really doesn't add that much additional freedom.

You can launch long range hypersonic attacks against Australian mpas and Diego Garcia. Once those get taken out, where are the mpa pressure coming from?

Nuclear subs are fast, with unlimited endurance. If you get one even in the improved la class acoustic performance, finding submerged ones in the middle of an ocean is really hard.
how to sneak past hydrophone network strung from Kyushu to Okinawa to rest of the Ryukyus down to Phillipines? Once out there, MPAs from Guam, Diego Garcia and Australia will be swarming the chokepoints. P-8 has 8000 km range, far longer than hypersonics.
 
You are too optimistic in your assessment.
I live in HK, so I can say a thing or two about the situation in HK.
the National Security Law seemed to have worked because there was the local PLA garrison, and the PLA units across the border ready to enforce it, meaning the presence of force did its part to ensure the effectiveness of the NSL.
the CIA-backed rioters saw that the Central Government meant business and fled. So it is essential to show your determination, and as early as possible for that matter.
Many of us still feel that Beijing has acted too late, it should have nipped the rebellion in the bud. Now the community is divided as the problem was allowed to drag on for too long, the politicians were hamstrung, the police force demonized and demoralized, the rioters were emboldened, and many school and college kids were enticed by romance and fashion to join in their ranks and many of their parents were convinced or forced to align with their children in a bid to stay together as a family.
We have close to 10000 people arrested for taking part in the rioting, though to varying degrees of involvement and violence. close to 200000 people have left the enclave. Those that are remaining ARE HARBORING RESENTMENT and simmering under the surface, and who knows how many people belong to this hidden group! I'd call that a pyrrhic victory for Beijing,
The damage to the divided community is huge and difficult to repair. It may be quiet now in HK on the surface, but I am afraid it is only a superficial calm.....
in conclusion, as painful as it is, I feel that Beijing should act promptly on the Taiwan issue, don't let the USA meddle too deeply, and supply too much weaponry. China may feel the time is on its side, but the USA knows it too, and so is stirring up trouble across Asia now. There won't be the "perfect" time per se to take action, just the most opportunistic time.
again, time to build up Huangyan Shoal and take the initiative, don't put yourself at the whims and mercy of USA-PH.
Hong Kong is a de-colonization project for China which involves giving the local authorities, elites, as well as population the opportunity for agency to manage themselves and handle problems. If there is resentment as to how the 2019 rioting was handled it should be towards Hong Kongers' own insufficient initiative and effort in taking action, including thinking through as to what is really happening, that is within their power to take.

Colonialism has beaten the slave mentality into Hong Kongers and they need to realize within themselves to break out of it. China's restrained behavior, not mimicking abusive Western colonialist strategy and tactics, is the only way to empower cities, countries, and individuals alike, who must decide for themselves to break out of bad habits they have been hazed into.

The same applies to the mentality of the Taiwan local authorities, elites, and population as to whether they trigger armed reunification or not.
 
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