PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Rowdyhorse4 · Jan 8, 2023

Temstar said:
That's what I thought too, particularly after seeing this photo:
View attachment 103346
From
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earlier this year. The gaming table at my local Games Workshop store for 40k is several times bigger than that! 3D terrain too!

sorry to reply to a very old post but whoever wrote the caption is retarded. I'm pretty those are just folks who are having a good time playing a fun Board game. I've played it. its part of the Next War Series of board games. in this case, its Next War: Taiwan.

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its fun especially with good opponent.

sheogorath said:
Is that blue thing on the corner a dice?

If it is...ffs

yes because this is a legitimate commercial board game that you can also buy. its not gonna have 3D stuff like Warhammer but its good stuff. ofc not to be taken seriously. it tries to simulate military aspects like detection, track quality, CMANO stuff in a board game dice fashion.

Attached is the picture of the board

Rowdyhorse4 · Jan 8, 2023

plawolf said:
Incoming Chinese mass missile attack! Quick, break out the loaded dice!

Actually yes... well not loaded but bring out the Dice for CIWS, AD Penetration and Hits lmao.

BlackWindMnt said:
Dam you would think they could hire some software developers to load in some geo svg data and draw some circles for missiles ranges.

Unfortunately the boardgame makers aren't software developers

sheogorath said:
Gotta pray the J-20 units don't roll a 20 when facing the F-35

Splash 1 F-35 oof

though the J-20 needs to roll a detection roll first, so does the F-35 iirc unless both are detected early by other assets.

plawolf said:
No fear J20 (and all Chinese assets) always roll snake eyes.

Key practical recommendation for ROC forces:

Roll gud

Basically yes in that game lmfao.

>Roll a 1
>F-16 gets shot down by J-11
>Skill Issue, Roll better son.

FairAndUnbiased · Jan 8, 2023

Rowdyhorse4 said:
So USAF conducted a MASS C-17 drill a few months ago. Basically the scenario is a chinese invasion of Taiwan, they're using the various airbases like MCAS Beaufort to simulate "islands" in the pacific in a chinese invasion of taiwan. this plane specifically is gonna leave the formation and the smaller six ship is gonna refuel ”taiwanese” fighters on the ground in MCAS Beaufort.

its interesting because in this drill, it assumes the USAF will be able to quickly mobilize to contest the airspace and resupply taiwan with their strategic logistic fleet. island by island.

Any thoughts on this?

if it's to refuel Taiwanese F-16s that's fine, they can fly as much as they want, there won't be many F-16s left since SAMs from the mainland guided by AWACs can hit Taiwanese planes upon takeoff at <500 meters from the ground, along with ~1000 SAM loaded VLS in the East Sea Fleet alone, never mind the actual PLAAF.

if it's to deliver fuel that's fine too, they will be allowed to land, and then the Taiwanese can put the fuel into barrels and roll them, since the fuel pump infrastructure would likely have already been hit by missiles or drones. It takes a while to unload 100k liters into barrels though, and it's difficult to roll fuel barrels around. How many tankers can they risk landing in a shooting war zone for the time it takes to unload fuel into barrels?

vincent · Jan 8, 2023

If US Air Force can land C-17 in a functional airport on the Taiwan Island after PLA starts its blockade operations, the blockade has already failed

plawolf · Jan 8, 2023

If the USAF does send C17s into the no-fly-zone that China will undoubtedly declare above and around Taiwan in the event of AR, then those planes and crews are political sacrifices sent in to die to force the US into getting involved in the conflict directly.

One counter would be to intercept them with fighters and force them to divert and land at mainland Chinese airports. If they refuse, warning shots may change their minds, and if not, they can shoot one down for real and check to see if they rest are still wanting to play hardball.

bobsagget · Jan 8, 2023

Rowdyhorse4 said:
sorry to reply to a very old post but whoever wrote the caption is retarded. I'm pretty those are just folks who are having a good time playing a fun Board game. I've played it. its part of the Next War Series of board games. in this case, its Next War: Taiwan.

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its fun especially with good opponent.

yes because this is a legitimate commercial board game that you can also buy. its not gonna have 3D stuff like Warhammer but its good stuff. ofc not to be taken seriously. it tries to simulate military aspects like detection, track quality, CMANO stuff in a board game dice fashion.

Attached is the picture of the board

No us govt will use any publicly available table tops as do think tanks thats def an institution or govt office. Like to give you an idea fema studied a wow error event to model pandemic behaviors of people.

PanAsian · Jan 8, 2023

Rowdyhorse4 said:
So USAF conducted a MASS C-17 drill a few months ago. Basically the scenario is a chinese invasion of Taiwan, they're using the various airbases like MCAS Beaufort to simulate "islands" in the pacific in a chinese invasion of taiwan. this plane specifically is gonna leave the formation and the smaller six ship is gonna refuel ”taiwanese” fighters on the ground in MCAS Beaufort.

its interesting because in this drill, it assumes the USAF will be able to quickly mobilize to contest the airspace and resupply taiwan with their strategic logistic fleet. island by island.

Any thoughts on this?

drowingfish said:
where does it say that that was the scenario? i think it makes more sense if the scenario was to supply US forces in the pacific.

If Taiwan secessionist moves are co-ordinated with the US then these could be maneuvers for force dispersion and/or FOB setups timed with secessionist actions prior to an anticipated PRC military reaction.

theforgotten0007 · Jan 9, 2023

Kudos to those thinking out-of-the-box with regards to a potential blockade. Though widely regarded as an act of war, I'm willing to bet both sides would be hesitant to escalate into a shooting war so rules of engagement would still be tame. However, two issues would arise from implementing such:

1) Naval blockade running
2) Two types of Airlifts (with or without workable air fields)

Naval blockades are enforceable imo when augmented by fast surface vessels like Type 56 corvettes/Type 22 missile boats to run intercept so they're not as obsolete as many would think, particularly when dealing with opposing fast crafts e.g. RHIBs. The second however, is a cause for concern - remember how the allies ran through the Berlin blockade by parachuting supplies into Berlin and frustrating Stalin?

Airfields can be disabled relatively easily but how does PLAAF intend to stop C-130s from parachuting supplies? Or even helo runs in and out of the island? They could

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I suppose but I'm very sceptical this is sustainable in the long run, not to mention highly controversial. Perhaps PAP could be deployed to key landing zones identified but this scenario is predicated on a pacified local environment which again, I doubt is going to happen that soon after a blockade is formed.

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(think "I'm not touching you bro/Go on, hit me!")

drowingfish · Jan 9, 2023

theforgotten0007 said:
Kudos to those thinking out-of-the-box with regards to a potential blockade. Though widely regarded as an act of war, I'm willing to bet both sides would be hesitant to escalate into a shooting war so rules of engagement would still be tame. However, two issues would arise from implementing such:

1) Naval blockade running
2) Two types of Airlifts (with or without workable air fields)

Naval blockades are enforceable imo when augmented by fast surface vessels like Type 56 corvettes/Type 22 missile boats to run intercept so they're not as obsolete as many would think, particularly when dealing with opposing fast crafts e.g. RHIBs. The second however, is a cause for concern - remember how the allies ran through the Berlin blockade by parachuting supplies into Berlin and frustrating Stalin?

Airfields can be disabled relatively easily but how does PLAAF intend to stop C-130s from parachuting supplies? Or even helo runs in and out of the island? They could
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I suppose but I'm very sceptical this is sustainable in the long run, not to mention highly controversial. Perhaps PAP could be deployed to key landing zones identified but this scenario is predicated on a pacified local environment which again, I doubt is going to happen that soon after a blockade is formed.

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(think "I'm not touching you bro/Go on, hit me!")

i think parachuting supplies is a very inefficient way of using air power in this case. If there is no escalation I can almost see China sort of allows it to happen as it worn out USAF's own capabilities over time. they can also simply bomb the area where supplies are air dropped, either destroy just whatever was dropped or along with whoever is there trying to pick it up.

theforgotten0007 · Jan 9, 2023

drowingfish said:
They can also simply bomb the area where supplies are air dropped, either destroy just whatever was dropped or along with whoever is there trying to pick it up.

This is nigh impossible considering the supplies would be too many to count and track individually, not to mention a waste of PGMs (dumb bombs will be useless).

You also have to consider collateral involved, say islanders are desperately going after supplies only to have a missile dropped on them by chance.

PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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