The sad thing is that China wants Taiwan to unify with it, but it has no realistic game-plan for how unification would work.
Well, if
Mr T is sad, as he says, then I'm devastated. Because I know
Mr T is very well acquainted with all plans "on high". His sources are quite reliable. This was my reaction a couple of days back when I read the above! So I decided to roll up my sleeves, and set to work. I believe I have now come up with a "realistic game-plan for how unification would work," though I still need a little help.
I am wondering if there is a suitable minority in Taiwan, one which is totally disenfranchised, and which comprises, say, between 5% and 25% of the population? It could be bigger too. In principle, it could even be a majority of the population; the only true requirements would be that it is disenfranchised (oppressed), and clearly distinct from the rest, whether it be in appearance, language, religion, or something else.
Here is what I have in mind. Our minority would, in a short space of time, become "enfranchised". The PLA would be its "savior". Indeed, the new elite in Taiwan would be evolved from the leaders of this erstwhile oppressed people. OK. I'm leaving out quite a bit, such as how this process would be initiated. An invasion? A coup d'etat? Some sort of "populist" disorder, in which the PLA utilizes the confusion on the island to quickly move in to "restore order"? I don't know, but it could happen in many ways, and I don't want to talk about that. It would be accomplished IN SOME WAY. We are talking about "how unification would work" and not how it would come about.
Probably, this would not be pretty. I'm sure
Mr T would agree with me -- and he seems to be quite an expert on this: it matters little whether there is a lot of killing or none, whether the pretext used is a clever one, or a totally laughable one. A lot of people on the island would be VERY, VERY UPSET! Not only do they have a new regime which, though it claims to be invited, really isn't, but the people from the minority discussed above, the old "riff-raff", the servants, have now become masters!
The catch is that while many -- indeed most -- would be quite unhappy, a small minority would be just delighted. Our previously oppressed people, owe their ascendancy to the PLA and the PRC, so naturally, they would be loyal. Ethnic "tensions"? Sure, but that is exactly why the new regime would wish to have PLA presense, and probably, not just a garrison either. The secret here is that the anger from the population, or part of it, is deflected away from the PLA and onto the new elite. And this anger actually serves the interst of Beijing, because it becomes the basis of the alliance between Beijing and the new regime in Taiwan.
Now, I came up with this little bit of "social engineering" myself, but otherwise, I am trying to follow
Mr T's thoughts. Except that I'm getting a little bit stuck, because some of the things he says are confusing and I need further clarification.
In post#240, you predict that the "population is hostile". Ok. But I'm confused, because you sound like you think this would be a bad thing. Why is that? Remember we want a military base there, and we need a good pretext! And you go on to talk about needing to "suppress the population"... you're talking almost an insurgency then! Cool. I'll get back to that later.
The thing is, in another post (#243) you seem to indicate that your "on high" sources have told you China would "back-track on any agreements on autonomy". But if you have all this hostility, and practically an insurgency that needs to be suppressed, that gives us just what we need to "back-track", not just "autonomy" but elections and the whole thing, if we want to. So this is not so "bad",
Mr T. Maybe you have more insights on what the PRC leadership wants.
Now, on the insurgency thing, I think that's a fine idea! Because then we can have not "a" base, but lots of them. Submarines and naval bases to make sure the insurgents can't be supplied, air bases for counterinsurgency ops... the whole works. But sadly, insurgencies take years to develop; they don't appear overnight.
But,
Mr T, that can also be arranged, if we borrow a suggestion from
solarz (post#249): disband the ROC Army. "Republic of China Army not needed," we say. Of course we collect their toys, or at leas most of them: the ships, airplanes, tanks... all vehicles actually. They keep just the stuff they can carry home. And look! Now we have a whole bunch of unemployed, trained, and armed, young people who are REALLY upset. KAPOW! An insurgency overnight! I think this is not what
solarz had in mind, but you and I know how to do things.
Back in post#240, you say this "requires significant resources", but that's another confusing thing, for two reasons. First, while we will be spending more, we will also have new revenue. Taiwan has no oil that I know of, but it does produce a lot of computer chips, motherboards, laptops, etc. And we have all those confiscated ships, airplanes, etc., that don't fit our standards and requirements. These can be sold to pay for some of our expenses. Secondly, since Taiwan is an island, any insurgency is bound to be limited, contained, and not very long lived, because it cannot be supplied from the outside (remember we have several naval bases there). This insurgency would start sort of strong, giving us all the pretexts we want, but it would then gradually fizzle.
After a few years, the insurgency would be non-existent. But don't worry,
Mr T. Although our pretext will be gone, our bases will by now have become an integral part of the economy in the island. The soldiers consume food, housing, all kinds of services and products. Some of them will have married locals, and some locals will have been recruited into the PLA. All of this would certainly soften the bad feelings of the people towards the bases (though, of course, not toward the new minority elite). And yet, I sense you're feeling that this is not enough.
But before I fill in that blank, there's another thing where I need some clarification. You say that "China is Taiwan's only military threat" (post #243). Elsewhere, I've noticed you've said China is Taiwan's "enemy". Strange, because Taiwan is merely an island, a geographical feature. It has no "enemies" or "threats", aside from global warming. Maybe you meant "Republic of China". The entity that today calls itself Republic of China, it is true, may see the PRC as a threat. But you see, "ROC" would no longer exist under our plan! This island would be part of the PRC.
This clarification is needed also because I agree
completely with your emphatic statement more recently: "Japan has no, repeat
no, interest in attacking Taiwan." (#250) As per this clarification, instead of "attacking Taiwan", I would have to say "attacking the ROC in order to grab Taiwan". This is more precise. And of course, your statement is true, first of all, because Japan feels it already "has" Taiwan. A joint statement between the American and Japanese militaries in 2005 referenced the need to "defend" Taiwan (the "ROC"). "Attacking", obviously, is out of the question.
But here's the rub. Attacking
China in order to grab Taiwan -- this is an entirely different matter, you see
Mr T? It already happened once, in 1894. If Taiwan is part of China, everything changes for Japan. But for us,
Mr T, this fills in the "blank" I had mentioned above: Our bases on the island of Taiwan are absolutely necessary to prevent a recurrence of 1894. That's it. An everlasting "reason" for our bases.
One more thing, back in #240, you made another intriguing statement:
there are no Chinese peasants/migrants there
My goodness, did they all go to Vancouver? And can't city people (and non-migrants) perform the same role? Or are you telling me there are no Chinese on that island?? That's strange, you know, because in every city, country, or island I've ever visited, I have found Chinese. Hell, in every neighborhood I've lived in too. Even when I go hiking in the wilderness, I run into... Chinese.
But if this is true (and I take you as an authority), this solves the problem of finding a "suitable" minority. We bring them in from the mainland, and now my story really looks a bit like 1948-1949 all over again.
Now, I know most of the work on this plan is really mine and not yours. But I have no "connections". This is why I would like to team up with you to present it to the PRC leadership. And as you see, all of the pieces fit together well (pending your clarifications, of course)!
And, come to think of it, there is one more thing I'd like to team up with you for, though this is OT. It involves a business venture. You and I could start a Chinese restaurant in Taiwan. We would have
no competition at all! I am not Chinese, and obviously you aren't either. But over there, who would know the difference? Think about it.
