Does every discussions involving nukes always ended up being like this?
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
I don't see how my scenario is nonsensical, given the US have previously stationed nukes on Taiwan before, ppl in Japanese and SK gov openedly called for US to restation tactical nukes on their soil, US openly defies the one-China principle and the US opened called for Taiwan to adopt asymmetric warfare.
If there was a previous thread that offered good discussion into my suggested scenario, please link me. I could not find it using the search option.
I think this is a factor that is extremely unlikely and does not need to be considered.But it takes a lot of time to refute these ideas.
The Americans will continue to use the "brinkmanship", but nuclear weapons certainly have the risk of “game over”.
The Americans mentioned in many places the idea of using nuclear submarines to sneak attack the landing fleet of the PLAN.
Because it is one thing to put nukes in a sovereign countries you have a relationship with and another to arm random armed movements with nukes.
It's like asking "lol what if China/Russia gave hezbollah or Al qaida nukes just to fuck with America/Israel", the answer is that UN sanctions or not, the world community would see how retarded and dangerous such a move is and the country throwing armed nukes around will face severe consequences.
Hypothetically, nukes wouldn't even make it there because China will enact a blockade and send whatever vessel with nukes on it to the bottom of the sea. And the world community would cheer for it because no-one wants to go into the midnight of thermonuclear war.
Lets be honest, America isn't even coping too well with Putin's autarkic and relatively tiny economy sanctioning it. What do you think happens when China + every country that would be fucked by secondary sanctions put a total embargo on USA? I actually doubt they can even feed their own nation.
The end result will be USA declaring war on China and its allies in an effort to lift the embargo. But, the whole world will recognize America as the definite aggressor, meaning this is by far the most dumb way US can do in order to invade China and start ww3, because it completely alienates the world from them.
If they want to start ww3 they could do it far more simply, just spend months directing all media to talk revanchism about Taiwan, like how originally it was discovered by the Dutch before illegally being taken over by China, how because of that Taiwan always had its distinct culture and how China is just a social construct created in the aftermath of ww2 etc. You know like what Putin is saying about Luhansk and Donetsk.
Once you got enough ppl brainwashed, put ol man Biden on camera and make a speech recognising Taiwan, then send the US marines and navy to launch an invasion. There's plenty of revanchist and far right countries who would support US... At least a little bit. Full military support will probably be rarer.
This factor is extremely unlikely so it does not need to be considered? Thank god the PLA doesn't have military planners like you.
The title of this thread is PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency , is US stationing nukes in Taiwan not a possible contingency?
What's the point of this thread if the PLA's strategy is just to ignore unlikely contingencies?
Please don't make strawman arguments, China and Russia don't sell nor arm Hezbollah or Al-Qaeda, nor have they done so previously. The US has placed tactical nuclear weapons in Taiwan before and the US constantly sells conventional weapons to Taiwan.
Yeah, back when it was during the Chinese civil war before it was resolved with handing the Beijing government the official seat of China.
Are you historically illiterate?
China doesn't arm Anti-US non state actor because China is mostly a pacifist state. That doesn't mean China cannot do it on principle, but giving nukes would be nothing short of retarded, and it would rightfully make them into a pariah state.
Chinese ships/planes will meet the invading nuclear armed US forces in the waters of the Pacific, order them to turn back or be sunk. US can turn back and eat a big loss of face or press on and start ww3 in the most unfavorable way they can do.
End of discussion which is frankly off topic.
Sir, nuclear proliferation is a very serious issue.
“ppl in Japanese and SK gov openedly called for US to restation tactical nukes on their soil”，do you think the crazy words of such crazy people have reference value?
Koreans and Japanese have too many fools who don't know the strength gap.
When the 003 aircraft carrier came out, the Koreans immediately asked to build the same aircraft carrier as China.
JSDF once made an absurd plan: surround China's J-10 with multiple fighter planes so that they could force the J-10 to land at the Japanese airport and capture it.
The biggest problem for Japan and South Korea is that they are confused by American military protection and lose their basic understanding of danger.
Support for North Korea will sober them up.
Compared with Japan and South Korea, Taiwan has no status.Americans refuse to provide Taiwan with the best weapons,Taiwan island is the US' waste and used weapons purchasing station.
You're asking Americans to play with dangerous actions they can't end.The delivery of nuclear weapons means direct us military intervention in Taiwan.
There are only two results:
1. Take military action immediately after the Americans make a decision
2. Do nothing, acknowledge the formal military protection of Taiwan by the United States, and then let the CPC's political credit collapse.
So why do you think Americans will do something that will lead to the loss of Taiwan？The most important bargaining chip of the United States is its ambiguous attitude towards Taiwan，Americans are unwilling to promise that they will carry out military intervention, but at the same time they declare that they will "help" Taiwan.
The Americans cleverly used the Chinese government's mentality of trying to avoid military conflicts in exchange for economic benefits, but they should not make the Chinese feel that there is no possibility of compromise.
This is going to be my last reply on the topic, and I would like to apologize to the mod in advance for derailing the thread.
What he said is true that the scenario is extremely unlikely but it does at least still need to be considered because the situation or dynamic may change which could make it look like a good action to take for the US. Currently there's a lot of risk and factors holding the US back from using this option, like @Biscuits mentioned where US would be seen as an aggressor in the region making them lose standing in the region, unintentionally starting a war which have huge political, economical and military uncertainties, and normalization of nuclear proliferation to countries and non-state actors.
The DPP also need to consider the political and economic consequence of such a move, where the possibility of war and nuclear contamination from nukes would become a hot political topic that could be exploited by the oppositions. The "nuclear landmine" idea is one of those topics that can be used to press the DPP, no voters with an ounce of sanity would agree to letting their cities get blown up and dying in nuclear fire just because China puts their boots on Taiwan soil, they'll rather get reunified or even better, for the government to negotiate an union where they get to keep most of their autonomy, in exchange for a military treaty and a slightly altered version of NSL on Taiwan, while they currently have some leverage.
我只是想说我非常赞同你的看法。我只不过是刚刚注册了账号，但粗略浏览了你的帖子和别人的回复之后，我发现这论坛的大多数人都亲共到失去理智的程度，把党当作什么无懈可击的yyds，根本不想接受暗示中共有任何问题的说法。很显然这种态度对于真正地了解中国社会、政治及国情是适得其反的。
我觉得这是最关键的问题。中华人民共和国宪法的第一条就是：“中华人民共和国是工人阶级领导的、以工农联盟为基础的人民民主专政的社会主义国家”。在台湾问题上中共是说一套做一套，说要实现社会主义制度，但却偏袒台湾商人和资本家。更可笑的是对台优惠政策的受益人可以在任何时候翻脸，以反共为借口来煽动反中情绪以掩盖自己在治理上的无能。难道我们从香港事件没有吸取任何教训吗？
顺便问一下，可以推荐值得关注的关于军事、政治的中文论坛吗？